(16:58, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Ukrainian air monitoring resources have issued warnings of a potentially imminent second wave of massed Russian cruise/ballistic missile strikes tonight.
(17:03, MoD Russia, HIGH): Confirmed use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against Ukrainian strongholds in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating a high-intensity push to break fortified lines.
(16:57, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian loitering munitions (Shahed-type) are currently transiting multiple corridors: Dnipropetrovsk (heading west), Zhytomyr (toward Korosten), and Northern Sumy (toward Chernihiv).
(16:58, UA Air Force, HIGH): A Russian reconnaissance UAV is active over Sumy, likely acting as a spotter for tactical aviation or Iskander-M batteries; UAF air defense is actively engaging.
(16:41, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Official confirmation that hourly rolling blackouts will be implemented in all Ukrainian oblasts on December 24 due to strike damage.
(16:44, Операция Z, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim the implementation of a "new scheme" for long-range aviation strikes, suggesting refined coordination between different airbase groupings to exploit gaps in UAF AD coverage.
(17:03, AV БогомаZ, HIGH): Russian authorities have declared a "drone danger" in Bryansk Oblast, indicating active UAF deep-strike or reconnaissance operations across the border.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "lull-and-surge" pattern in Russian strategic aviation and a hardening of tactical pressure in the Donbas. Following the morning's massive strike, the Russian Federation (RF) is repositioning assets for a potential follow-on wave (16:58). The power grid remains unstable; while emergency shut-offs in Kyiv were temporarily lifted (16:47), the Ministry of Energy reports a fragile stabilization process (16:58) ahead of a planned nationwide rationing tomorrow. Ground operations are increasingly utilizing heavy area-denial weapons (TOS-1A) to compensate for the slow pace of infantry advances in the Pokrovsk sector.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Tactical Maneuver & Capabilities:
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Axis: The deployment of TOS-1A (17:03) suggests the RF is prioritizing the destruction of entrenched UAF positions over urban preservation. This system's employment often precedes mechanized assaults by the "Tsentr" Group of Forces.
Zaporizhzhia/Orekhiv Sector: Pro-RF footage (17:02, WarGonzo) shows active drone-led harassment of UAF positions in Orekhiv. This indicates the RF is maintaining pressure on the Zaporizhzhia front to prevent UAF from shifting reserves toward the Andreevka breach (identified in previous report).
Strategic Aviation TTPs: The reported "new scheme" (16:44) likely involves staggered launch times and non-linear flight paths designed to drain UAF interceptor stockpiles and overwhelm mobile fire groups.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Counter-UAS Adaptation: Despite losses (8 drones downed by YOKAI, 16:42), the RF continues to flood the Sumy/Chernihiv corridor with reconnaissance assets (16:58, 17:02), suggesting a sustained requirement for real-time BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of energy infrastructure.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: Mobile fire groups (MFG) continue to demonstrate effectiveness with point-defense weapons; a Shahed was confirmed destroyed via Browning M2 machine gun fire (17:01), highlighting the necessity of low-cost kinetic solutions for Tier 1 UAVs.
Internal Security: The sentencing of a Belarusian KGB agent in Volyn (16:42) confirms ongoing success in counter-intelligence operations targeting the northern flank's hybrid threats.
Strategic Posture: Third Army Corps Commander Biletsky characterizes the RF as approaching a "strategic dead end" (16:54), suggesting that while tactical pressure is high, the RF’s ability to convert these into a decisive operational victory remains constrained.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Internal Control: The labeling of Z-correspondent Roman Alekhin as a "foreign agent" (17:00) indicates the Kremlin is tightening control over the pro-war information space, likely to suppress criticism of military leadership as the winter offensive stalls or incurs heavy costs.
Resilience Narrative: High engagement with stories of wounded veterans (16:36) and localized power stabilization (16:47) is being leveraged to maintain domestic morale during the energy crisis.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch the suspected second missile wave between 2200Z and 0300Z, synchronized with the loitering munitions currently transiting toward Zhytomyr and Chernihiv. The goal will be to disrupt the grid stabilization efforts reported by MinEnergo.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes TOS-1A strikes in the Pokrovsk sector to create a breakthrough point for "Courier" UGVs and mechanized units, attempting to sever the main supply line to the city before the forecasted temperature drop further complicates maneuver.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Missile Reload Status: Monitor RF Tu-95MS and Tu-160 airbases (Olenya, Engels-2) for immediate turn-around activity or re-arming. (CRITICAL)
Andreevka Confirmation: Still no visual confirmation of the status of Andreevka on the Dnipropetrovsk border; require satellite/UAV verification of the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops). (HIGH)
TOS-1A Locations: Identify the specific firing positions of the TOS-1A in the Pokrovsk direction to enable counter-battery or FPV-interception.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Pre-emptive Grid Protection: Recommend Ukrenergo prioritize frequency-stabilizing nodes in Western Ukraine ahead of the expected night strike wave.
UAV Interception: Deploy additional mobile fire groups to the Korosten (Zhytomyr) axis to intercept the UAV flight path reported at 16:57.
Tactical Mobility: UAF units in the Pokrovsk sector must maintain high mobility and avoid over-concentration in fixed strongholds to mitigate the effects of TOS-1A thermobaric strikes.
