(16:09, Операция Z / 16:11, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Ukrainian General Staff has officially acknowledged the withdrawal from Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, citing the need to preserve personnel lives.
(16:17, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Large-scale Russian cruise missile (KR) strike confirmed; monitoring indicates unprecedented coordination involving four separate airbases across the RF.
(16:12, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources claim the capture of Andreevka (Eastern Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border); currently UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources but aligns with previously identified RF offensive vectors.
(16:32, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH):Ukrenergo has announced nationwide rolling blackouts for Dec 24 following sustained strikes on energy infrastructure.
(16:33, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): UAF 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled a mechanized assault near Ivanopillia (Kostiantynivka direction), destroying "Tsar-tank" variants and liquidating an infantry squad.
(16:07, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian UAVs (likely Geran-series) detected transitioning from Kyiv Oblast toward Zhytomyr Oblast, indicating an expansion of the aerial threat westward.
(16:30, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM): Reports of deteriorating tactical conditions in Myrnohrad (Pokrovsk sector); Ukrainian parliamentary officials reportedly characterize the garrison's position as "heavy."
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted toward high-intensity long-range strikes and the consolidation of Russian gains in the Donbas. The official admission of the Siversk withdrawal confirms the collapse of the salient, with Russian forces now utilizing FAB-3000 (three-ton) aerial bombs to "level" defensive positions (Alex Parker, 16:27). Concurrently, the RF is demonstrating enhanced multi-base coordination for strategic cruise missile strikes, while ground forces attempt to breach the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border via Andreevka. Weather remains a critical factor, with a severe cold snap (-11°C to -15°C) forecast to harden the ground and stress the already damaged energy grid.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Tactical Maneuver & Capabilities:
Siversk Exploitation: RF forces are transitioning from urban clearing to pursuit. The use of heavy ODAB and FAB-3000 munitions indicates a "scorched earth" tactical adjustment to bypass remaining fortifications.
Kostiantynivka Axis: Despite a failed assault at Ivanopillia (16:33), the deployment of "Tsar-tanks" (extensively up-armored/screened vehicles) suggests the RF is continuing high-risk mechanized pushes to find gaps in the 28th Mech Bde’s lines.
Strategic Strike Coordination: The involvement of four different airbases for a single KR wave suggests a refinement in RF Command and Control (C2), likely aimed at overwhelming UAF AD through multiple vector approaches.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Energy Warfare: The timing of the KR strikes combined with the forecasted "most frozen night" (16:17, Новости Москвы) indicates a deliberate attempt to cause a "freeze-out" of urban centers.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Defensive Posture: The UAF is successfully trading space for time in Siversk but faces increasing pressure in Myrnohrad. The defense of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk belt is now the primary operational priority in the East.
Tactical Successes: The 28th Mech Bde’s utilization of combined artillery and drone strikes at Ivanopillia (16:33) demonstrates that UAF tactical units retain high lethality against RF mechanized "breakthrough" groups.
Resource Constraints: Nationwide blackouts (16:32) will degrade domestic repair and production facilities (e.g., "Motor Sich 2.0" initiatives) and complicate logistics for cold-weather gear distribution.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Siversk Narrative: Pro-RF channels are mocking the delayed official UA recognition of the Siversk withdrawal (16:09). UAF messaging remains focused on the "preservation of life" to maintain domestic morale.
Hybrid/Legal Operations: Ukraine’s request for Poland to extradite a Russian archaeologist (16:16) signals a push to use international legal frameworks to penalize RF activity in occupied Crimea, potentially creating a precedent for cultural heritage theft.
ZNPP Posture: RF C2 is hardening its rhetorical stance on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (16:29), explicitly rejecting Zelenskyy's calls for control. This suggests the ZNPP will remain a "nuclear shield" for the southern RF grouping.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a follow-up wave of loitering munitions (Gerans) tonight, targeting the Zhytomyr-Khmelnytskyi axis to exploit the path identified at 16:07. In the Donbas, RF will attempt to establish a bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets river to prevent UAF from consolidating new heights.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed breakthrough at Andreevka allows RF mobile groups to sever the N15 highway, effectively isolating the Southern Donbas front from Dnipro logistics before UAF can redeploy the M1A1 reserves currently committed to Pokrovsk.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Andreevka Verification: Need immediate GEOINT or drone reconnaissance to confirm RF presence in Andreevka (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border). (CRITICAL)
FAB-3000 Stockpiles: Determine the launch platforms (Tu-22M3 or Su-34) and sortie rates for the heavy munitions used in Siversk to project future "demolition" targets. (HIGH)
Energy BDA: Identify the specific transmission nodes hit in the KR strike that necessitated nationwide blackouts for Dec 24.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Air Defense Prioritization: Shift mobile AD assets to the Zhytomyr corridor to intercept the UAV flight path reported at 16:07.
Fortification Reinforcement: Accelerate the preparation of the secondary line of defense west of Siversk, specifically targeting the high ground overlooking Zvanivka.
Anti-Armor Saturation: Increase delivery of FPV and thermal-equipped drones to the Myrnohrad sector to counter RF night assaults during the upcoming cold snap.
