(14:39, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): Deployment of Australian-supplied M1A1 Abrams tanks with the 425th Mechanized Regiment "Skela" confirmed in the Pokrovsk sector.
(14:50, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Kinetic impact reported in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast following Russian strikes; BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) is pending.
(14:41, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF has deployed the НРТК "Courier" (NRTK Courier) UGV equipped with machine guns, mine trawls, and TM-62 anti-tank mines, indicating a shift toward unmanned ground maneuver in high-threat zones.
(14:50, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force (PS ZSU) released footage confirming the interception of assets during a "massed combined strike" overnight; validates previous reports of high AD readiness.
(14:38, ТАСС, MEDIUM): Kazakh President Tokayev offered Kazakhstan as a negotiation platform during a call with US President-elect Trump; represents a potential shift in regional diplomatic posturing.
(14:55, ASTRA, HIGH): Legal challenges initiated in Russia against Roskomnadzor regarding the blocking of WhatsApp and Telegram, suggesting internal friction over digital censorship.
(14:38, Дневник Десантника, LOW):UNCONFIRMED: Russian sources deny a strike on the Zaporizhstal plant in Zaporizhzhia, characterizing UAF claims as disinformation.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has expanded in technical complexity and geographic reach over the last 6 hours. While the Eastern Front remains the primary theater of maneuver, Russian long-range aviation and missile forces have shifted focus toward Kremenchuk (Poltava) and likely Zaporizhzhia, targeting industrial and logistical nodes. The arrival of Australian Abrams tanks in Pokrovsk signals a reinforcement of this critical axis. Environmental conditions remain harsh (-11°C), which is driving both sides to increase reliance on unmanned systems—aerial (Starlink-equipped Molniya) and now ground-based (NRTK Courier).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Tactical Adaptations (UGVs): The deployment of the NRTK "Courier" UGV (14:41) is a significant development. By integrating mine-clearing (trawls) and mine-laying (TM-62) capabilities on a single unmanned platform, the RF seeks to reduce personnel exposure during "breaching" operations. This likely targets UAF defensive belts in the Donbas.
Aerial Operations: Following the overnight massed strike, the RF continues to probe AD density. The reported strike on Kremenchuk (14:50) indicates an attempt to disrupt the central Ukrainian logistics and energy corridor.
Force Generation: The "Rusich" DSHG’s announcement of youth military camps (14:51) underscores the long-term radicalization and auxiliary force generation efforts within the RF's irregular formations.
Information Operations: RF sources are aggressively attempting to control the narrative regarding industrial strikes (Zaporizhstal denial, 14:38) and are framing domestic financial fraud as a "pro-Ukrainian" activity to justify crackdowns (14:46).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture (Pokrovsk): The 425th Mechanized Regiment "Skela" is now operating M1A1 Abrams in the Pokrovsk sector (14:39). This suggests the UAF is committing high-end Western armor to stabilize the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) against the RF's continued pressure on this axis.
Air Defense: PS ZSU has demonstrated high technical proficiency in repelling the recent combined strike (14:50). However, the strike on Kremenchuk suggests the RF is successfully identifying gaps or utilizing low-altitude flight paths to bypass certain AD clusters.
Morale/Support: Coordination efforts for families of POWs (14:36) continue, maintaining domestic social cohesion despite the intensified winter campaign.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Diplomacy: Kazakhstan's offer of a "negotiation platform" (14:38) is an attempt to position Astana as a neutral broker, likely anticipating a shift in US foreign policy.
Internal RF Friction: The lawsuit against Roskomnadzor (14:55) indicates that the RF's heavy-handed censorship of communication tools is meeting resistance from the domestic population, creating a potential vulnerability for psychological operations.
Western Political Shifts: Reports on the release of Epstein-related files in the US (14:41) are being amplified by both sides to project potential instability or influence over the incoming US administration.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue its tactical shift toward "Unmanned Dominance," using NRTK Courier UGVs to clear paths for mechanized pushes in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka sectors. Expect further strikes on Poltava and Zaporizhzhia industrial sites.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "double-tap" strike on Kremenchuk's logistical infrastructure, combined with an UGV-led breakthrough in Pokrovsk, aimed at unhinging the UAF's central supply lines before the arrival of new Western aid packages.
Timeline: Next 6-12 hours will likely see heightened UAV reconnaissance over Poltava to conduct BDA for the Kremenchuk strike, followed by another wave of "Geran" or "Molniya" drones overnight.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Kremenchuk BDA: Urgently require satellite or ground-level confirmation of the target hit in Kremenchuk. Was it the refinery, rail hub, or power infrastructure?
UGV Signature/Defeat: Need technical data on the RF NRTK "Courier." Determine its control frequency and vulnerability to current UAF EW (Electronic Warfare) jamming suites.
Abrams Operational Readiness: Assess the sustainment capability of the 425th Regiment in Pokrovsk. Are maintenance nodes for M1A1s established nearby, or are they vulnerable to long-range KAB strikes?
Zaporizhstal Status: Confirm via SIGINT or independent OSINT if the Zaporizhstal plant was indeed targeted or if the "denial" is a cover for a successful UAF-claimed hit.
