(12:17/12:22/12:26, Tsapliienko/Operativno ZSU/RBK-UA, HIGH): UAF Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat confirmed F-16 fighter jets intercepted 34 out of 35 Russian cruise missiles during a massive morning attack. This marks the first operational confirmation of high-volume F-16 intercept efficacy.
(12:22/12:25/12:28, PS ZSU, HIGH): Active aerial threat continues; Russian UAVs detected entering Chernihiv from the north; high-speed targets (missiles) detected over Dnipropetrovsk region and Kryvyi Rih heading north.
(12:06, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): RF 14th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade attempted an assault on the positions of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion (OShB); the assault failed with visual confirmation of RF casualties.
(12:20, Sternenko, MEDIUM): UAF 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled a Russian assault in the Novopavlivka direction.
(12:23, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): UAF destroyed multiple Russian "turtle tanks" (shed-tanks) near Kostiantynivka, indicating continued RF reliance on improvised anti-drone armor for mechanized pushes.
(12:28, Colonelcassad/Hromadske, MEDIUM): Investigative report alleges Viktor Dorovskyi (Head of SBU Odesa) holds a Russian passport and has familial ties to Russian oligarch Shishkin. UNCONFIRMED but potentially critical internal security risk.
(12:09, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Death of Hero of Ukraine pilot Alexander Shemet confirmed following a Mi-24 crash on Dec 17.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted toward a high-intensity multi-domain struggle. The primary development is the validated performance of UAF F-16s in an Integrated Air Defense (IADS) role, neutralizing 97% of a massive missile salvo. Despite this, Russia is maintaining pressure with follow-on strikes toward Kryvyi Rih and Dnipropetrovsk. On the ground, the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) remains dynamic in the East (Kostiantynivka) and South (Novopavlivka), with Russia committing "elite" Spetsnaz elements to frontline assaults as conventional armor struggles against FPV and artillery persistence.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is attempting to bypass UAF air defense via sustained "probing" strikes (UAVs over Chernihiv) and high-speed ballistic/cruise missile follow-ups. The commitment of the 14th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade to a tactical assault (12:06) suggests a depletion of standard infantry quality or a desperate attempt to achieve a breakthrough in the 225th OShB sector.
Tactical Adaptations: The continued use of "turtle tanks" (12:23) near Kostiantynivka confirms that RF mechanized units remain vulnerable to UAF FPV strikes and have not yet fielded a systemic technological counter, relying instead on heavy metal shielding.
Logistics & Strategic Signaling: The Russian Supreme Court's ruling (12:17) that "criticizing politicians is not extremism" may be a calculated move to lower domestic pressure or a response to the "High Treason" case noted in the previous report.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Air Domain: F-16s have reached Initial Operational Capability (IOC) for missile defense, demonstrating superior kill ratios (34/35). This reduces the burden on ground-based SAM systems (Patriot/NASAMS) but increases the requirement for F-16 maintenance and sortie generation.
Ground Posture: The 42nd Mechanized and 225th Assault units remain combat-effective, successfully repelling assaults from both mechanized forces and specialized Spetsnaz units.
Sustainability: A significant cryptocurrency donation ($100k+, 12:09) directed at Sternenko-linked projects suggests continued non-state resource flows for tactical UAS procurement.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Internal Security/Hybrid Warfare: The exposure of the Odesa SBU head’s alleged Russian ties (12:28) is being amplified by pro-RF channels (Colonelcassad) to undermine UAF command integrity. If verified, this represents a significant intelligence breach in the critical Odesa maritime hub.
Propaganda/Disinfo: Russian state media (TASS) is pivoting to "soft power" and domestic lifestyle narratives (Thailand visa-free status, renaming "children's champagne") to maintain social stability during the offensive.
Disinformation: Claims regarding Pavel Durov funding IVF (12:25) are assessed as fabricated/low-confidence "noise" intended to distract or flood the information space.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the "reconnaissance-by-fire" approach in the North (Sumy/Chernihiv) using UAVs to identify gaps in the F-16/SAM screen, followed by localized mechanized pushes in the Kostiantynivka sector to exploit any exhaustion in UAF 42nd/225th brigades.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Oreshnik" assets in Belarus (baseline context) to target the F-16 basing infrastructure, attempting to neutralize the newly proven air-to-air intercept capability before it can be scaled.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
F-16 Basing & Attrition: Identify if any F-16 assets were targeted or damaged during the "35-missile" salvo.
SBU Odesa Investigation: Confirm the validity of the "Russian passport" claim against Dorovskyi. Determine if this correlates with recent maritime strike successes by RF.
Novopavlivka Force Density: Identify the size of the RF force that conducted the "repelled assault" (12:20). Is this part of a larger divisional offensive?
Chernihiv Incursion: Monitor the status of the "UAVs on Chernihiv" (12:22). Determine if these are Geran-2 (Shahed) variants or new reconnaissance models mapping AD positions.
