(11:56, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Approximately 100 RF troops reported to have entered Hrabovske (Sumy region), indicating an expansion of the previously identified border bridgehead.
(11:35/11:59, PS ZSU, HIGH): Multiple "high-speed targets" (missiles) and reconnaissance UAVs (potential spotters) active over Zaporizhzhia; UAF air defense engaging.
(11:54, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UAF unveiled the "Predator" (Хижак) AI-driven remotely controlled combat module, specifically optimized for anti-FPV/UAS operations.
(12:02, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF claims precision artillery strike against UAF positions in the Zaporozhye sector; corroborated by video of strikes near Prymorske (11:35).
(11:51, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): Syrian Foreign and Defense Ministers arrived in Moscow for high-level military-diplomatic coordination.
(11:44, ASTRA, HIGH): First confirmed criminal case for "High Treason" initiated in RF against a participant of the current war, signaling intensified internal security crackdowns.
(12:02, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RF Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov confirmed a new round of negotiations with the US regarding "mutual irritants."
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is intensifying in the Zaporizhzhia and Sumy sectors. In the south, a coordinated reconnaissance-strike loop is evident, with RF deploying spotter UAVs followed by high-speed missile targets and precision artillery. In the north, the RF presence in Hrabovske has transitioned from a bridgehead to an active village-level intrusion involving company-sized infantry elements (~100 personnel). Strategically, the UAF leadership is digesting the outcomes of a high-level US delegation visit (Umerov/Hnatov briefing Zelensky) while simultaneously rolling out new domestic counter-UAS technology ("Predator").
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is prioritizing the degradation of UAF assets in Zaporizhzhia. The use of reconnaissance UAVs as "spotters" (11:59) for high-speed missiles suggests a move toward real-time targeting of mobile UAF air defense or C2 nodes.
Northern Axis (Sumy): The intrusion of 100 troops into Hrabovske (11:56) aligns with the MDCOA from the previous daily report regarding a "Northern Envelopment." This force size suggests a tactical probing or clearing operation rather than a full-scale mechanized thrust, likely intended to fix UAF reserves.
Strategic Logistics/Alliances: The arrival of Syrian military leadership in Moscow (11:51) may indicate RF efforts to secure additional munitions or personnel from Middle Eastern partners to offset high attrition rates.
Internal Security: The initiation of a "high treason" case against a veteran (11:44) and the proposed "unified user identifier" for internet monitoring (12:02) indicate the Kremlin is hardening its internal security posture against potential dissent within the military and the domestic information space.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Technological Adaptation: Deployment of the "Predator" DKBM (11:54) addresses the critical intelligence gap regarding "Rusoriz" deficits noted in the 22 Dec report. This AI-integrated module targets the FPV threat, which has been a primary driver of UAF tactical setbacks.
Strategic Command: Minister Umerov and Commander Hnatov have briefed President Zelensky on the US visit (11:36). This likely involves the "long-term security architecture" and potential adjustments to the Western aid pipeline.
Internal Integrity: The recovery of 40 million UAH from the "Turbota" corruption case (12:00) demonstrates a continued focus on internal stability and the rule of law, critical for maintaining Western donor confidence.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Domestic Control: RF is utilizing "New People" party initiatives (exam bans) and cultural themes (pension fund promos featuring Ded Moroz) to maintain a veneer of normalcy and social support (11:40, 11:43).
Hybrid Signaling: Pro-RF channels are amplifying US regulatory changes regarding drone imports (12:01) to frame Western logistics as increasingly restrictive or unreliable, likely targeting UAF morale.
Legal/Coercive Measures: The vandal of Prigozhin’s grave signing a military contract (11:49) reinforces the "service as atonement" narrative used for RF recruitment.
5. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue the localized infantry expansion in the Sumy sector while maintaining the missile/UAV pressure on Zaporizhzhia to force UAF AD to deplete interceptor stocks.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the Hrabovske intrusion to launch a multi-directional assault toward Sumy city or the flank of Vovchansk, timed with a major missile strike on energy infrastructure during the current cold snap.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Hrabovske Force Composition: Identify the specific RF units (VDV or motorized rifle) that entered Hrabovske. Is this the 155th Naval Infantry or a new formation?
Syrian Delegation Objectives: Determine if the Syrian military visit involves the transfer of equipment (e.g., Kornet ATGMs) or the negotiation of "volunteer" units.
Zaporizhzhia BDA: Confirm the impact of the "high-speed targets" reported at 11:36Z. Prioritize damage assessment of the Prymorske vicinity and industrial C2.
US-Russia Negotiations: Identify the specific "mutual irritants" discussed by Ryabkov (12:02). Does this include de-escalation of "Oreshnik" deployment or satellite interference?
