(11:09, MoD Russia, HIGH): RF Minister of Defense officially confirmed the "liberation" (capture) of Andreyevka (Dnepropetrovsk region), marking a formalized operational milestone for the Vostok Group of Forces.
(11:35, PS ZSU, HIGH): Active missile threat declared for Zaporizhzhia region; immediate kinetic activity expected.
(11:21, Colonelcassad, HIGH): 3rd Army Corps (Southern Group of Forces) conducted precision strikes in the Konstantinovka sector, destroying a Point of Temporary Deployment (PVD), signal amplifiers, and specialized unmanned equipment.
(11:29, Alex Parker/RVvoenkor, MEDIUM): Retrospective confirmation of the loss of a UAF Mi-24 helicopter and four crew members (including a Hero of Ukraine) in Cherkasy region on Dec 17, allegedly downed by a "Geran" (Shahed) loitering munition.
(11:22, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Capture of RF serviceman (Naydenishev D.S., b. 1971) confirmed, providing potential tactical intelligence on current RF unit composition.
(11:29, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports of systemic RF recruitment of foreign nationals (formerly VIP security) for frontline roles in Donbas.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has shifted to the consolidation of the Andreyevka breakthrough. The RF Ministry of Defense's formal acknowledgement suggests they have secured the perimeter and are transitioning from assault to stabilization/exploitation. Simultaneously, the Zaporizhzhia sector is under immediate missile threat, likely targeting remaining energy nodes or industrial infrastructure following the Zaporizhstal shutdown. The confirmation of a Mi-24 loss to a loitering munition (if verified) indicates an evolving threat profile where long-range UAVs are being used in an air-interdiction role against low-flying rotary assets.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Capabilities & Intentions: The 3rd Army Corps is actively degrading UAF C2 and signal infrastructure in the Konstantinovka axis (11:21). Their focus on destroying signal amplifiers and antennas suggests a preparation for increased electronic warfare or localized pushes where UAF drone communication is critical.
Manpower: RF continues to bolster frontline strength through irregular recruitment (foreigners) and significant domestic fundraising (62.8 billion rubles reported by TASS, 11:11).
Tactical Evolution: The claim of a "Geran" downing a Mi-24 (11:29) suggests RF may be refining the "anti-drone/anti-helicopter" use of loitering munitions, potentially using them as persistent aerial mines or interceptors in rear areas like Cherkasy.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF continues to engage in high-intensity defensive operations in the South and East. The capture of an RF prisoner (11:22) indicates active close-quarters engagement and successful localized counter-moves.
Economic Resilience: Despite grid instability, Zaporizhzhia regional authorities are initiating business support programs (11:34), indicating an effort to maintain civilian and economic continuity under fire.
Recent Setbacks: The confirmed loss of the Mi-24 crew (Alex Parker, 11:29) represents a significant loss of experienced aviation personnel and specialized rotary-wing capability.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narratives: RF state media is highlighting domestic financial support for the "SVO" (TASS, 11:11) to project unity.
Psychological Operations: Pro-RF military correspondents (Steshin) are openly advocating for a shift in targeting priority from Odesa to Kyiv, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk (11:21), framing Western Ukrainian cities as "deserving" of infrastructure destruction. This aims to create internal regional friction and demoralize the population in perceived "safe" zones.
Internal RF Dissent: Nationalist channels (Alex Parker, 11:06) continue to troll the RF leadership over the use of foreign products, indicating minor but persistent friction within the pro-war information space.
5. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA: RF will launch a missile/UAV strike on Zaporizhzhia (following the 11:35 alert) to further degrade the regional power hub while 3rd AC maintains pressure on the Konstantinovka communications grid.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the Andreyevka foothold to launch a multi-pronged mechanized assault toward Pokrovsk from the south, leveraging the current missile alert to pin UAF reserves.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Andreyevka Disposition: Identify the exact forward line of the 36th Brigade west of Andreyevka. Are they probing toward the H-15 highway?
Mi-24 Intercept Technicals: Verify the claim of a Shahed/Geran intercepting a helicopter. If true, this requires an immediate update to rotary-wing flight profiles in "Geran-active" sectors.
Foreign Recruit Locations: Determine which sectors are receiving the Reuters-identified foreign recruits to assess potential quality/morale weak points in the RF line.
Zaporizhzhia Strike BDA: Monitor for impacts following the 11:35Z missile alert; prioritize damage assessment of substation transformers and industrial C2.
