(11:03, Voin DV, HIGH): RF Minister of Defense Belousov officially congratulated the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Army) for the capture of Andreyevka (Dnepropetrovsk region), confirming the Vostok Group's tactical success.
(10:50, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Approximately 100 RF personnel have entered Hrabovske (Sumy region) and are attempting to advance toward Ryasne, signaling an expansion of the northern border incursion.
(10:52, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The Zaporizhstal steel plant has undergone an emergency shutdown due to a complete power failure, highlighting the critical impact of recent RF strikes on the energy grid.
(10:41, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Confirmed use of FAB-3000 M-54 with UMPK (guided kit) by Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) against targets in Seversk, indicating a continued shift toward heavy-tonnage precision gliding munitions.
(11:04, PS ZSU, HIGH): Active UAV threat reported over Chernihiv approaching from the north.
(10:36, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): UAF confirms ongoing technical improvements to the Sapsan (OTRK), Vilkha (MLRS), and the "long" Neptune missile systems.
(11:00, Gen Prosecutor UA, HIGH): Corruption probe launched in Dnipro involving city officials and the misappropriation of housing recovery funds.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a significant Russian mechanized breakthrough into the Dnepropetrovsk administrative region and a widening "grey zone" in the Sumy/Kharkiv border sectors. The Ukrainian energy infrastructure is under extreme duress, with major industrial assets like Zaporizhstal forced offline. Weather conditions remain a factor, but the use of heavy gliding bombs (FAB-3000) suggests RF aviation is operating with increased confidence in contested airspace.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is successfully transitioning tactical gains into operational-level threats. The capture of Andreyevka by the 36th Brigade (Vostok Group) creates a staging point for further incursions into the Dnepropetrovsk region, potentially aiming to outflank UAF defenses in the Pokrovsk sector from the south.
Tactical Adaptations: The deployment of FAB-3000 UMPK in Seversk (10:41) demonstrates a capability to level fortified urban positions with high-yield explosives, reducing the need for high-risk infantry assaults in the initial phases of urban clearance.
Northern Maneuver: The push of ~100 troops into Hrabovske toward Ryasne (10:50) is likely a fixing operation intended to draw UAF reserves away from the Donbas.
C2 & Logistics: RF state media (TASS, 10:51) claims that slowing foreign messaging apps has reduced cyber incidents, suggesting an internal tightening of the information space to secure C2.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Blue Force Tracking:
Force Posture: The 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade remains active on the Kostyantynivka axis, successfully engaging RF personnel (10:36). The 63rd Brigade has reached "industrial scales" of enemy drone destruction using "Molniya" strike drones (10:43).
Resource Development: The acceleration of the Neptune (long-range variant) and Sapsan programs is a critical strategic pivot to address the deficit in deep-strike munitions.
Constraints: The emergency shutdown of Zaporizhstal (10:52) and scheduled outages in Slavutych (10:35) indicate that industrial support for the defense effort is being hampered by the degraded power grid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain:
Russian Internal Shaping: Propaganda channels are focusing on "Western irritants" (Ryabkov, 10:58) and internal stability, while simultaneously amplifying Western political friction (Trump's NYT comments, 10:45).
Hybrid Operations: Reports of UAF draft evaders being smuggled via a gas pipe in Zakarpattia (10:46, 11:00) are being heavily amplified by RF sources (Alex Parker) to demoralize the Ukrainian public and highlight internal law enforcement challenges.
Strategic Signaling: The German Foreign Minister's warning of a potential RF attack on NATO (10:50) is being used in the Ukrainian space to bolster the argument for increased Western military aid.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will consolidate the Andreyevka foothold and begin localized probing toward the next defensive tier in the Dnepropetrovsk region while maintaining high-intensity UAV/missile pressure on the energy grid to prevent industrial recovery.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated mechanized thrust from Andreyevka north toward Pokrovsk, coinciding with a breakthrough south of Vovchansk (Burluk direction), attempting to force a multi-sector collapse of the UAF eastern front.
Timeline: Expect a major follow-up strike on energy distribution nodes within the next 24 hours to capitalize on the current grid instability.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dnepropetrovsk Penetration Depth: Determine if the 36th BDE has established fixed defensive positions south of Andreyevka or if they are continuing mobile reconnaissance.
FAB-3000 Stockpiles: Identify the primary airfields (likely in the Southern or Western Military Districts) currently sorties-generating FAB-3000 UMPK missions.
Sumy Border Force Composition: Clarify if the ~100 personnel in Hrabovske are regular motor-rifle units or Spetsnaz/reconnaissance elements indicating a larger follow-on force.
Zaporizhstal Recovery: Assess the duration of the shutdown; a prolonged outage of this facility significantly impacts domestic steel production for armored vehicle repair/fortification materials.
