(09:55-09:56, MinEnergo/RBK-UA, HIGH):All Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been forced to reduce power generation due to the massive Russian strike on grid infrastructure.
(10:05, MoD Russia, HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense officially confirms the capture of Prilipka (Kharkiv) by the "Sever" Group of Forces.
(10:01, Dva Mayora/MoD Russia, HIGH): RF units from "Vostok" Group have formally declared control over Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk).
(09:42-10:00, PS ZSU/Voin DV, MEDIUM): Renewed KAB (guided bomb) strikes launched against Zaporizhzhia and Southern Dnipropetrovsk; heavy fighting reported in the Hulyaypole sector.
(09:59, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): RF "South" Grouping has initiated localized offensive operations on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk axis.
(10:01, DNR Militia, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Claims of UAF units being "encircled" in Dimitrovo (Donetsk) remain uncorroborated by independent visual evidence or official UAF reports.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): The situation in Kharkiv has deteriorated with the confirmed loss of Prilipka (10:05). This consolidates the RF bridgehead near Vilcha and increases pressure on the Vovchansk flank. In Sumy, single-source reports (09:39) claim FPV strikes on UAF mobility assets in Osoevka, suggesting active RF reconnaissance-strike activity across the border.
Eastern Axis (Donbas): High-intensity combat persists. RF "South" Grouping is attempting to exploit localized successes to push toward the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line (09:59). Claims of encirclement in Dimitrovo (10:01) suggest a Russian attempt to psychologically fix UAF defenders.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The loss of Andreevka (10:01) provides the RF with an operational jumping-off point into the Dnipropetrovsk border region. Ongoing KAB strikes (09:42) and ground assaults in Hulyaypole (10:00) indicate this remains the primary Russian focus for tactical expansion.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile Assets: The scale of the overnight strike (673 assets) indicates a peak-capacity saturation effort designed to overwhelm IADS (Integrated Air Defense Systems). While interception rates were high, the secondary effect on NPP generation (09:55) suggests Russian targeting of critical switching nodes or transmission lines associated with the nuclear backbone of the grid.
Tactical Adaptations: Continued reliance on KABs as the primary tool for breakthrough, now shifting weight toward Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk.
Internal Personnel Friction: Intelligence indicates growing internal friction within RF forces. Nationalists and "turbo-patriots" are publicly attacking the Akhmat units (Chechen forces), accusing them of "hiding behind regulars" (10:02). Additionally, critical analysis of military personnel data (Maxim Klimov, 09:52) suggests a deficit or discrepancy in Russian manpower figures (up to 1.5 million "missing" personnel in data sets).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully engaged a massive saturation attack, maintaining high efficiency (621/673 targets).
Rear Area Security: The Office of the Prosecutor General has moved to prosecute a former high-ranking Logistics official for corruption (10:00). This indicates ongoing internal vetting to ensure supply chain integrity during the winter campaign.
Ground Operations: 15th National Guard Brigade ("Kara-Dag") remains active in the Slobozhanshchyna sector, reporting successful drone-led destruction of RF tanks and light vehicles (09:51).
Information environment / disinformation
ASAT Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are pushing a "cosmic scare" narrative (Basurin, 09:38), claiming Russian anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities have targeted Starlink. This is assessed as a HIGH-LIKELIHOOD DISINFORMATION campaign intended to degrade UAF confidence in satellite communications.
US Support Narrative: RF media is amplifying selected clips of Donald Trump questioning the transparency of US aid to Ukraine (10:01) to foster domestic and international skepticism regarding continued Western support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground pressure on the Hulyaypole-Zaporizhzhia axis, leveraging the Andreevka foothold while the Ukrainian energy grid is under stress from the NPP generation drop.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary wave of precision missile strikes targeting the specific transmission lines that necessitated the NPP power reduction, aiming for a regional "blackstart" scenario in central/eastern Ukraine during sub-zero temperatures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dimitrovo Encirclement: Urgent requirement for satellite or drone reconnaissance to verify the status of UAF positions in Dimitrovo.
NPP Status: Determine the duration of the forced power reduction. Are the NPPs capable of returning to 100% capacity within 12 hours, or has physical infrastructure damage occurred at the connecting substations?
Personnel Movements: Monitor for movements of the "South" Grouping toward Slavyansk-Kramatorsk to determine if the 09:59 report represents a major offensive or a series of localized raids.
