(09:19-09:22, TASS/Voenkor Kotenok, HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense officially claims the capture of Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Prilipka (Kharkiv). Footage of Andreevka was released to support the claim.
(09:21, TASS, MEDIUM): RF MoD reports the use of "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complexes and energy infrastructure.
(09:17-09:32, Voenkor Kotenok/Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Severe power outages confirmed in Rivne, Ternopil, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts following overnight strikes. Rivne OVA reports restoration efforts are underway (150k subscribers still without power, down from 300k).
(09:20-09:29, PS ZSU/Nikolaevsky Vanek, HIGH): Heavy tactical aviation activity over the Black Sea; multiple waves of guided aerial bombs (KABs) launched at coastal targets including Chornomorsk, Zatoka (Sanzheyka), and Ovididiopol.
(09:12, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Reports indicate Russian "Shahed" UAVs are utilizing ultra-low altitude flight paths over Kyiv to evade radar and MANPADS.
(09:20, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Combat footage corroborates the successful Ukrainian repulsion of a Russian mechanized column near Dobropillya (previously reported at 08:57).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has entered a phase of high-intensity multi-domain pressure. The Russian Federation (RF) has transitioned from massed drone saturation to precision strikes using hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles, specifically targeting the energy grid in Western Ukraine and industrial nodes. Simultaneously, the RF is expanding its tactical gains in the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk sectors, attempting to consolidate breakthroughs reported over the last 24 hours.
Weather/Environment: Cold snap continues (-11°C). The degradation of the grid in Rivne, Ternopil, and Khmelnytskyi (09:17) creates a critical humanitarian and logistical bottleneck for Western GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication).
Battlefield Geometry: The capture of Prilipka (Kharkiv) suggests an expansion of the bridgehead near Vilcha, threatening the northern flank of the Vovchansk grouping. The loss of Andreevka marks the first formal RF foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during this phase of the campaign.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Hypersonic Capability: The employment of "Kinzhal" missiles (09:21) indicates a prioritization of high-value targets that Ukrainian mid-range AD systems may struggle to intercept, specifically aimed at the military-industrial base.
Tactical Evolution: Shahed UAVs flying "maximum low" over Kyiv (09:12) demonstrates a tactical adaptation to Ukrainian mobile fire groups and acoustic detection networks.
Coastal Interdiction: Sustained KAB strikes on the Odesa/Chornomorsk axis (09:20, 09:28) aim to disrupt port infrastructure and transport hubs used for grain and Western military aid.
Engineering Operations: Remote demining by the 29th Army near Hulyaypole (09:34) suggests the RF is clearing lanes for potential offensive maneuver in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Resilience: UAF continues to effectively utilize ATGMs and FPV drones to blunt mechanized assaults, as evidenced by the destroyed column at Dobropillya (09:20).
Air Defense Operations: PS ZSU remains active in tracking and engaging multi-vector threats (UAVs from the north/Chernobyl, KABs from the south).
Personnel Loss: Confirmed death of Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Shemet, a senior Mi-24 pilot (09:07). This is a significant loss of experienced rotary-wing leadership.
Infrastructure Recovery: Energetics in Rivne have restored power to 50% of affected users (09:32), demonstrating high civil-military repair capacity despite ongoing threats.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Signaling: RF state media is heavily amplifying territorial gains (Andreevka/Prilipka) to overshadow the failure of the mechanized push at Dobropillya.
Internal RF Sentiment: Reports of "minimum desire to fight" among Russian conscripts/public (09:17) suggest internal friction, though this is likely mitigated by the state's narrative of "liberation."
Normalization: Russian state media (TASS, 09:09) and Moscow local channels (09:32) are emphasizing holiday festivities and internet ID regulations, likely to project a facade of domestic stability to the Russian public.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain KAB pressure on the Odesa coastline to fix Ukrainian forces while exploiting the Andreevka foothold to push deeper into the Dnipropetrovsk border regions. Expect continued "Shahed" harassment of Kyiv to exhaust AD munitions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike using remaining "Kinzhal" stocks against the Kyiv "Decision Making Centers" or the remaining functional nodes of the Western Ukrainian energy transit system, timed with a breakthrough south of Prilipka to encircle Vovchansk.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Andreevka Status: Confirm if UAF has established a new defensive line west of Andreevka or if the RF breakthrough is uncontested.
Kinzhal BDA: Identify specific military-industrial plants hit in the 09:21 strike wave. Determine impact on domestic drone/missile production.
Kupyansk Stability: Assess the "intense fighting" reported at 09:14. Determine if RF "red symbols" (offensive pressure) have resulted in a breach of the main defensive belt.
Technology Tracking: Monitor the success rate of ultra-low altitude Shahed flight paths to update mobile fire group engagement SOPs.
