(08:52-08:55, RBK-Ukraine/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed kinetic strikes against DTEK thermal power plants (TPPs). This follows the morning wave of 600+ drones, indicating a systematic effort to collapse the Ukrainian energy grid.
(08:57, Butusov Plus/OSP Lasar, HIGH): UAF forces successfully repelled a Russian mechanized assault in the vicinity of Dobropillya. Video evidence confirms the destruction of armored assets.
(08:58-09:03, PS ZSU, HIGH): Continued loitering munition activity; UAVs detected over Odesa region (Sarata) and entering Chernihiv from the north.
(08:50, Sternenko, MEDIUM): Critical resource deficit identified; 117 unpaid requests for 3,624 drones (approx. 72M UAH) reported, indicating a widening gap between frontline demand and volunteer-led procurement.
(08:41, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): RF sources continue to claim the capture of Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk region). [UNCONFIRMED]
(08:40, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Combat footage confirms Russian tactical activity near the northwestern outskirts of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk).
(08:34-08:48, KMVA/Svyatoshynska RDA, HIGH): Kyiv city authorities have established emergency "headquarters for resident assistance," likely responding to grid instability or damage from the earlier morning strikes.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high as the RF transitions from a massed aerial saturation strike to targeted infrastructure attrition. The focus of RF ground operations is increasingly shifting toward the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis, with a potential new salient forming in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Andreevka).
Weather/Environment: Persisting sub-zero temperatures (-11°C) elevate the impact of the confirmed strikes on DTEK TPPs.
Battlefield Geometry: The FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) near Pokrovsk is under intense pressure. The reported defense at Dobropillya suggests RF attempts to bypass Pokrovsk to the west or north.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Energy Attrition: The repeated targeting of DTEK TPPs (08:52) suggests a shift from substation-level disruption to the destruction of generation capacity. This is timed to maximize humanitarian pressure.
Unmanned Systems: RF MoD (08:36) is heavily messaging the integrated use of drone units across "all directions," indicating a doctrinal shift toward drone-led reconnaissance-strike complexes to compensate for mechanized losses.
Strategic Intent: Propaganda from Sasha Kots (09:00) frames recent strikes as an operation to "cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea." While hyperbolic, it signals an intent to intensify strikes on southern logistics hubs (Odesa/Zatoka).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Success: The 46th Airmobile Brigade (08:36) and OSP Lasar (08:57) continue to demonstrate high tactical proficiency in ATGM and drone-based defense, specifically in the Dobropillya sector.
Resource Constraints: The reported deficit of 3,600+ drones (08:50) is a critical vulnerability. If volunteer funding remains stalled, UAF's ability to maintain the "drone shield" over the next 48-72 hours will degrade.
Rear Area Management: KMVA’s deployment of aid headquarters (08:48) suggests that while the grid is damaged, civil-military coordination for casualty/disruption management is active.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Influence: RF state media (TASS, 08:51) is aggressively amplifying Donald Trump’s "enemy of the people" rhetoric regarding the US media. This is likely intended to project a narrative of Western internal collapse to Ukrainian audiences.
Dehumanization: Russian mil-channels (Archangel Spetsnaz, 09:01) have shifted to using "meme-insertion" in combat footage to dehumanize UAF personnel, likely aimed at maintaining domestic RF support for high-casualty operations.
Opposition Suppression: The заочно (in absentia) arrest of Garry Kasparov in Moscow (08:45) indicates a continued focus on neutralizing any remaining external dissent nodes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current drone pressure on Odesa and Chernihiv (08:58, 09:03) to fix Ukrainian AD assets while ground forces attempt to consolidate the claimed gain in Andreevka.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary mechanized push from the northwestern outskirts of Pokrovsk (confirmed activity at 08:40) coupled with a breakthrough at Andreevka could lead to the operational encirclement of the Pokrovsk defensive hub before emergency grid repairs are completed.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
BDA (Battle Damage Assessment): Urgent requirement for the status of DTEK TPPs hit at 08:52. Determine if the damage is to transformers (repairable) or turbines (long-term loss).
Andreevka Verification: Still no visual confirmation of RF control in Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk). Reconnaissance required to determine if this is a "grey zone" incursion or a consolidated position.
Drone Logistics: Determine if the "unpaid requests" mentioned by Sternenko (08:50) are due to a banking failure, a lack of donor funds, or a supply chain blockage.
