(08:06-08:08, RBK-Ukraine/Svyrydenko, HIGH): Massive combined strike metrics confirmed: RF deployed over 600 drones and dozens of missiles in the morning wave.
(08:23-08:33, Ukrenergo/MinEnergo, HIGH): Critical energy infrastructure failure. Rivne, Ternopil, and Khmelnytskyi regions are almost entirely de-energized following targeted strikes. Approximately 300,000 subscribers are without power in Rivne alone.
(08:15-08:22, Voin DV/Colonelcassad, LOW): RF claims the capture of Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk region) by Group "Vostok." [UNCONFIRMED]
(08:34, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Personnel of the 93rd "Kholodnyi Yar" Brigade have withdrawn from a position held for 130 consecutive days, indicating localized tactical shifts in the Bakhmut/Kostiantynivka sector.
(08:11, Operatsiya Z/Deník N, MEDIUM): Claims emerged that the new Czech Defense Minister is suspending military aid to Ukraine and canceling planned visits. [UNCONFIRMED/POTENTIAL DISINFO]
(08:16, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Air Defense success in Cherkasy region; 8 missiles and 13 UAVs neutralized.
(08:10, Dva Mayora/Aksyonov, MEDIUM): Occupation authorities in Crimea are signaling potential internet shutdowns to counter UAF "Starlink-assisted" reconnaissance.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The massive combined aerial assault reported in the 0800Z sitrep has concluded its primary kinetic phase, though loitering munitions (Shahed/Geran) remain active. The operational focus has shifted to Strategic Infrastructure Damage Assessment (SIDA) and a significant RF territorial claim regarding the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
Weather: Persisting cold snap (-11°C) exacerbates the humanitarian and operational impact of the total blackout in Rivne, Ternopil, and Khmelnytskyi.
Battlefield Geometry: If the RF claim regarding Andreevka is verified, it represents the first significant Russian penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during this offensive cycle.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Aerial Attrition: The use of 600+ drones (08:06, RBK-Ukraine) represents a massive increase in volume, likely intended to saturate Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) to ensure missile penetration of energy targets.
Maneuver (Dnipropetrovsk Axis): The 40th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades (previously reported in Dobropillya) are likely the units supporting the claimed "Vostok" push toward Andreevka. This suggests an intent to outflank the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defensive complex from the south.
Crimean C2: Statements by Sergei Aksyonov regarding internet restrictions (08:10) indicate a high degree of RF sensitivity to UAF drone/reconnaissance operations in the peninsula, possibly anticipating a follow-up UAF maritime or deep-strike mission.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Operational Readiness: UAF Air Defense continues to maintain high interception rates in central sectors (Cherkasy), but the volume of fire has achieved the RF's objective of grid destabilization in the West.
Tactical Retrograde: The withdrawal of 93rd Brigade elements (08:34) suggests a planned rotation or a tactical adjustment to avoid encirclement as RF pressure on the Eastern axis intensifies.
Resource Constraints: Massive power outages in rear-area logistics hubs (Khmelnytskyi/Rivne) will likely delay the movement of rail-based reinforcements and heavy equipment for 12-24 hours.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Disinformation: RF sources are amplifying a reported shift in Czech defense policy (08:11). This aligns with the "Abandonment" narrative identified in the previous sitrep, aimed at demoralizing UAF personnel.
Domestic Crackdown: FSB activity in Russia (08:07, Sever.Realii) indicates a tightening of internal security, likely to prevent domestic disruption during the "Long-Range Aviation" holiday/strike period.
Narrative Warfare: RT’s "Christmas Song" propaganda (08:28) seeks to frame the European energy crisis as a self-inflicted consequence of supporting Ukraine, synchronizing with the physical destruction of the Ukrainian grid.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high loitering munition pressure on Zaporizhzhia (08:32) to fix UAF reserves while attempting to consolidate the reported gain in Andreevka. Emergency grid repairs will be the primary UAF focus for the next 12 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the "blind spot" created by the Western Ukraine blackout to launch a cross-border raid or "Oreshnik" strike against weakened logistics nodes while C2 is disrupted by local internet outages and power failures.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Verification of Andreevka: Immediate satellite or drone imagery required to confirm RF presence in Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk). Is this a sustainable breakthrough or a temporary raid?
Czech Policy Clarification: Urgent diplomatic verification of the Deník N report regarding the Czech Ministry of Defense.
Grid Recovery Timeline: Assessment of the damage to Khmelnytskyi/Rivne substations. Can power be restored before the -11°C cold snap causes widespread pipe bursts and logistical paralysis?
