(07:53, Tsaplienko/Kostenko, MEDIUM): Myrnohrad (Donetsk sector) is reported to be in an "operational encirclement." UAF logistics and provision delivery are currently assessed as impossible by the Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee.
(07:34, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Missile danger all-clear issued for all regions. The primary combined strike wave has concluded, though loitering munition remnants ("mopeds") remain active in localized corridors (07:40, Vanёk).
(07:52, KMVA, HIGH): Kyiv casualty count updated to five (5) injured following the Shahed impact in the Svyatoshynskyi district.
(07:35-07:40, RBK/ASTRA, HIGH): Fatalities confirmed in Zhytomyr (one child, b. 2021) and Khmelnytskyi (one civilian, b. 1953) following the overnight strikes.
(07:33, Rybar, MEDIUM): Russian Armed Forces (RF) are deploying Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) for engineering and support roles; robots are being integrated into frontline technical operations to mitigate personnel risk.
(07:41-08:03, TASS/Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): RF forces, specifically VDV units, claim to have destroyed two UAF drone control points and a BTR near Kostiantynivka.
(08:02, DPR Militia, MEDIUM): RF 944th SAP units claim destruction of a UAF Electronic Warfare (EW) station in Novopavlivka.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupiansk)
Baseline pressure remains high. While no new frontline changes were reported in the last hour, the threat to the Oskil River crossing persists following the RF capture of Vilcha.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad)
Myrnohrad (CRITICAL): The situation has deteriorated from "contested" to "operational encirclement" (07:53, Tsaplienko). If fire control over the main Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) is absolute, UAF units within the Myrnohrad pocket face immediate sustainment failure.
Kostiantynivka: RF has intensified suppression of UAF technical assets (Drones/EW). VDV activity suggests a focused effort to blind UAF tactical reconnaissance before a potential mechanized push (08:03, Dnevnik Desantnika).
Novopavlivka: Reported loss of an EW station (08:02, DPR Militia) indicates localized RF success in degrading UAF's ability to interdict RF FPV drones.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine issued a 08:00 summary (07:56) confirming high readiness; however, kinetic activity remains dominated by long-range fires and positional sniping. RF is attempting to leverage civilian sentiment in Kherson through visual propaganda (07:37, Hayabusa).
Western/Central Axis (Strike BDA)
Combined strike consequences are being tallied. Impact in Svyatoshynskyi, Kyiv was confirmed via visual evidence of a Shahed strike (07:44, Operativno ZSU). Damage to energy infrastructure in Lviv and Chernihiv (previous sitrep) remains the primary operational constraint for regional logistics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Attrition: RF is transitioning from simple kinetic strikes to targeting high-value "force multipliers" (EW stations and drone control centers) in the Kostiantynivka and Novopavlivka sectors.
Technological Shift: The confirmed use of UGVs (07:33) indicates RF is attempting to solve the "last mile" logistics problem under UAF FPV dominance by using expendable robotic platforms.
Long-Range Aviation Holiday: Today (Dec 23) is the "Day of RF Long-Range Aviation." (07:43, Z Committee). Historically, RF utilizes such dates for "prestige strikes." Despite the current all-clear, the threat of a secondary missile wave or "Oreshnik" demonstration remains HIGH.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistical Crisis Management: UAF command is likely scrambling to establish alternate supply routes to Myrnohrad.
C2 Resilience: Today marks the Day of Servicemen of Operational Control (07:39, 46th Brigade). Maintaining C2 integrity during the Myrnohrad encirclement threat is the immediate priority.
Counter-SAB Ops: Successful law enforcement action in Ivano-Frankivsk (illegal tobacco/organized crime) targets the shadow economy that RF hybrid operations often exploit for funding (08:00, Prosecutor General).
Information environment / disinformation
"Abandonment" Narrative: Pro-RU channels (Operation Z, 07:41) are weaponizing Politico reports to claim the EU has "failed" Ukraine regarding the 50bn euro loan, aiming to synchronize political demoralization with the tactical pressure on Myrnohrad.
Foreign Fighter Focus: RF media is amplifying the reported deaths of American volunteers (07:40, Colonelcassad) to deter Western personnel support and frame the conflict as a direct war with NATO.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will attempt to collapse the Myrnohrad pocket through intensive FPV and UGV-supported infantry assaults while the city is cut off from supplies.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF Long-Range Aviation, celebrating their professional holiday, launches a high-speed ballistic strike (Kinzhal/Oreshnik) against "Decision Making Centers" in Kyiv or the logistics hubs supporting the Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk axis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad GLOC Status: Immediate confirmation of the physical status of the T0504 and secondary dirt routes into Myrnohrad. Is fire control visual or physical?
Kostiantynivka Attrition: Verify RF claims of drone/EW station destruction. Assess if this has created a "blind spot" in UAF tactical ISR.
UGV Capabilities: Identify the specific types of UGVs deployed (e.g., mine-clearing, casualty evac, or weaponized).
