Situation Report

Situation Update (0735 UTC Dec 23, 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (07:21-07:31, Air Force/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): All-clear (Vidioy) issued for missile danger across all regions. The strategic missile threat from Tu-95MS and Kinzhal platforms has concluded for this wave.
• (07:24-07:28, Lviv OVA/RBC-UA, HIGH): Confirmed impact on a critical energy infrastructure facility in Lviv Oblast following a drone/missile attack.
• (07:27, Chernihiv OVA/RBC-UA, HIGH): Massed drone strike in Chernihiv Oblast; over 10 "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs targeted and struck critical infrastructure.
• (07:33, Zhytomyr OVA, HIGH): Casualty figures updated; confirmed death of a child (born 2021) in Zhytomyr Oblast due to the overnight strikes.
• (07:29, KMVA, HIGH): Kyiv casualty count increased to four (4) injured, including a 16-year-old child; one woman hospitalized in Svyatoshynskyi district.
• (07:09-07:24, Khmelnytskyi OVA, HIGH): Confirmed fatality in Khmelnytskyi Oblast (civilian, b. 1953) following the strike wave.
• (07:27, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Tactical success in the Dobropillya sector; a UAF "Vampire" night-strike drone destroyed a Russian BTR-82A with mounted infantry.
• (07:34, Mash on Donbas/RU MoD, LOW): UNCONFIRMED claims of UAF reconnaissance-diversionary groups (DRG) attempting to penetrate central Kupiansk; RU MoD reports using "Malva" SPG to target UAF strongpoints in the district.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupiansk)

Russian forces are intensifying pressure on the Kupiansk direction. Pro-Russian sources claim to have repelled UAF DRG attempts to enter the city center (07:34, Mash). The Russian 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is confirmed active in the sector, utilizing advanced "Malva" 152mm self-propelled guns (07:34, RU MoD). This suggests a transition from border raids (Vilcha/Prylypka) to high-intensity urban approaches.

Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk)

The situation in the Dobropillya salient remains a focal point of mechanized attrition. UAF "Vampire" drones are successfully interdicting Russian armored movements (07:27, Butusov Plus), corroborating the presence of RF naval infantry and motorized units attempting to exploit recent gains near Pokrovsk.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia)

At 07:06, a "high-speed target" (likely ballistic or supersonic) was detected inbound for Zaporizhzhia. No impact reports have surfaced yet; BDA is required. The UAF counter-activity near Huliaipole reported in the previous sitrep remains uncorroborated.

Western/Central Axis (Strike Zone)

While the missile threat has been lifted, Shahed-type UAVs continue to transit the airspace, with at least one "moped" moving from Shepetivka toward Rivne at 07:15. Damage to energy infrastructure in Lviv and Chernihiv indicates that while AD intercepted the "Kinzhal" wave, the saturation of "Geran" drones effectively penetrated the perimeter of critical nodes.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Multi-Vector Infrastructure Attrition: The RF has successfully integrated high-volume Shahed strikes (10+ in Chernihiv alone) with high-speed missile assets to overwhelm localized AD and hit energy targets in the West and North.
• Tactical Artillery Adaptation: The deployment of the Malva (2S43) SPG in the Kupiansk sector (07:34) indicates the RF is prioritizing mobile, high-rate-of-fire artillery to support infantry breakthroughs in the Kharkiv region.
• Logistics Posture: The 2652th GRAU Base refill (SAR score 27.04) suggests that despite deep strikes on oil terminals (Taman/Kuban), RF munitions flow remains robust for the winter offensive.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Night-Strike Dominance: UAF "Vampire" drone units continue to provide effective asymmetrical defense against RF mechanized assaults in the Dobropillya sector, compensating for RF armor advantages.
• Defensive Repositioning: DeepState reports a map update (07:14), likely reflecting tactical withdrawals or adjustments following the loss of Vilcha or Russian progress in the Kupiansk/Vovchansk corridor.

Information environment / disinformation

• "Sabotage Noise" & Distraction: Russian state media (TASS) and pro-RU channels are flooding the space with non-kinetic news (EGE vocabulary, Hong Kong flu warnings, domestic crime reports) to dilute international focus on the civilian casualties (specifically the 3-year-old killed in Zhytomyr).
• External Political Exploitation: Basurin (07:07) is leveraging Tucker Carlson's commentary to frame the conflict as an inevitable "US-Russia war," aimed at demoralizing Western support.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will focus on Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) using Gerber/Orlan drones over Lviv and Chernihiv. Expect a brief pause in strategic strikes followed by increased artillery pressure in the Kupiansk and Pokrovsk sectors.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the damage to the Lviv/Chernihiv energy nodes to launch a localized ground offensive toward Vovchansk, banking on degraded UAF C2 and logistical friction caused by power outages and -11°C weather.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Kupiansk FLOT: Immediate confirmation needed regarding the status of the "city center" in Kupiansk. Are Russian units within visual range of the Oskil River bridges?
2. Lviv BDA: Determine the severity of the strike on the "critical energy infrastructure." Is the regional grid capable of sustaining military rail logistics?
3. Dnipropetrovsk Readiness: Assess UAF defensive preparations for the incoming cold snap (dropping to -8°C) to prevent equipment failure or logistical freezes.

//REPORT ENDS//