(06:32-06:35, Air Force/Vanyok, HIGH):CRITICAL ESCALATION. Deployment of at least four (4) MiG-31K interceptors confirmed. At least three (3) Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles are currently in flight, vectoring toward Chernihiv, Korosten (Zhytomyr), and Rivne/Zviahel/Shepetivka.
(06:11-06:35, Operatsiya Z/RU MoD, MEDIUM): RF forces claim the "liberation" of Prylypka (Kharkiv Oblast) and released video footage intended to confirm the capture of Vilcha. This indicates a widening of the northern breach.
(06:21, Rivne OVA/RBK-UA, HIGH): Kinetic impact confirmed in Rivne Oblast; a two-story residential building was damaged. This confirms the transition from transit to terminal impacts in the Western sector.
(06:17-06:21, Air Force/Vanyok, HIGH): Cruise Missile (CM) threat has largely subsided ("everywhere minus") as missiles transitioned to terminal phases or were intercepted; however, the threat has immediately been superseded by the Kinzhal launch.
(06:13, Kotsnews, MEDIUM): Russian state media framing the strike as a celebratory action for the "111th Anniversary of Long-Range Aviation," suggesting a high-level symbolic commitment to the current mission.
(06:33, Tsapliyenko, HIGH): UAVs (Shaheds) confirmed flying at low altitudes directly over residential areas in Kyiv, complicating AD engagement and increasing risk of collateral damage.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy)
The situation continues to deteriorate. RF forces (Sever Grouping) claim to have captured Prylypka (06:11). Combined with the confirmed loss of Vilcha (06:35), the RF is successfully expanding its bridgehead south of the border. This maneuver likely aims to isolate Vovchansk from the west, creating a pincer threat.
This is currently the primary kinetic zone for high-speed assets. Rivne has sustained confirmed damage (06:21). Shepetivka remains a focus for both UAVs (06:05) and the current Kinzhal wave (06:34). The targeting of Zviahel and Berdychiv (06:14) suggests an intent to sever the logistics and power lines connecting Kyiv to the Western hubs.
Kyiv Metropolitan Area
Active air defense (AD) engagements are ongoing (06:17). Low-flying UAVs are being used to map or exhaust AD positions in the capital while the ballistic/hypersonic threat (Kinzhals) passes through the northern corridor.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Phase Strike Tactics: The RF has executed a textbook transition from saturation (UAVs/Shaheds) to maneuver (Cruise Missiles) and finally to precision/high-speed (Kinzhals). The launch of 3-4 Kinzhals after the initial CM wave suggests they are targeting high-value nodes that were successfully "uncovered" or had their AD depleted by the first wave.
Ground Maneuver Adaptation: In the North, the RF is not just raiding but capturing settlements (Vilcha, Prylypka) to establish a sustainable FLOT within Ukrainian territory. This supports the MDCOA of a northern envelopment.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Air Defense: UAF AD is heavily engaged in Kyiv, Rivne, and Zhytomyr. The implementation of emergency blackouts (reported 05:38) is likely mitigating the "water-hammer" effect on the grid as kinetic impacts occur.
Strategic Communication: Air Force and regional authorities are maintaining a high cadence of tactical warnings, though the Kinzhal threat provides sub-5-minute warning times for Western Ukraine.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: RU correspondents (Kots) are using the "Long-Range Aviation Day" narrative to boost domestic morale.
Noise Injection: Russian state media (TASS) is disseminating irrelevant high-volume news (e.g., death of a US game developer, 06:12) to clutter the information space during a peak kinetic event.
Hybrid Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying claims of Croatian/German equipment transfers (06:31) framed as "old tanks," likely to diminish the perceived value of Western aid.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Kinetic impacts from Kinzhals within the next 15-30 minutes, primarily targeting electrical substations or C2 nodes in Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Khmelnytskyi. Post-strike damage assessment will follow, with a likely second wave of Shaheds to disrupt repair efforts.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF uses the confusion of the air strike and the capture of Prylypka to launch a mechanized push toward the Vovchansk-Kharkiv highway, attempting to cut off the Vovchansk garrison's main supply route (MSR).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA Rivne/Zhytomyr: Urgent requirement for Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on substations in Rivne and the Zviahel rail junction following Kinzhal impacts.
Prylypka Confirmation: Ground reconnaissance or satellite verification required to confirm RF control of Prylypka and the status of the bridge across the Vovcha River.
MiG-31K Sortie Depth: Determine if additional MiG-31K aircraft are prepping for a second wave from Savasleyka or other deep-rear airfields.
