Situation Report

Situation Update (2025-12-23 06:05 UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (05:38-05:53, Ministry of Energy/RBK-UA, HIGH): Ministry of Energy confirms a nationwide deliberate attack on energy infrastructure; emergency power shutdowns (blackouts) have transitioned from regional to a broader national scale.
• (05:43, Nikolaivsky Vanyok, MEDIUM): Cruise missiles (CM) detected vectoring toward the Pervomaisk/Pivdennoukrainsk area, indicating high-risk maneuvering near the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant.
• (05:59, RBK-UA, HIGH): Significant disruption reported in Lviv; local transport changes implemented as missiles and UAVs enter the oblast.
• (06:02-06:03, Air Force/Nikolaivsky Vanyok, HIGH): CMs in Western Ukraine are executing complex terminal maneuvers; missiles West of Khmelnytskyi changed course 90 degrees to the North (Krasyliv/Shepetivka), likely to evade local AD clusters.
• (05:43, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): UNCONFIRMED Russian claim of the first Australian-supplied Abrams tank destroyed near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). No visual confirmation or UAF corroboration.
• (05:56, Air Force, MEDIUM): A new wave of OWA-UAVs (Shahed) launched from the Black Sea toward Odesa, indicating a multi-pronged saturation effort.
• (06:04, Colonelcassad, LOW): UNCONFIRMED Russian propaganda claiming awards for the "liberation of Vovchansk"; contradicts earlier reports of the sector being contested but not fully lost.

Operational picture (by sector)

Western Axis (Khmelnytskyi/Lviv/Ternopil/Rivne)

The kinetic focus is currently concentrated here. CMs are performing evasive "loops" around Khmelnytskyi (06:02) while OWA-UAVs are converging on Shepetivka (05:53) and Lviv (05:59). Impacts near Burshtyn TPP remain the highest tactical concern for grid stability. A single UAV was detected near Rivne (06:04), possibly for terminal reconnaissance or targeting of the Rivne NPP substation.

Central/Northern Axis (Kyiv/Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia/Cherkasy)

This remains a high-volume transit corridor. A missile group transited from Cherkasy toward Uman (05:35), while another bypassed Kyiv toward Zhytomyr and Berdychiv (05:36, 05:46). UAVs are active over Kyiv (Irpin/Brovary) as of 05:57, likely forcing the engagement of short-range AD systems.

Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad)

A significant development is the vectoring of missiles through Kirovohrad toward Pivdennoukrainsk (05:43). While the NPP itself is rarely the direct target, the associated transmission substations are critical nodes. Simultaneously, Odesa is facing a fresh UAV wave from the Black Sea (05:56).

Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kharkiv)

Tactical ground operations are being overshadowed by the air campaign. RF claims regarding the capture of Vovchansk (06:04) are assessed as premature propaganda but signal intense pressure following the loss of Vilcha. The claim of an Australian Abrams loss near Pokrovsk (05:43) is likely an information operation intended to demoralize UAF armored units during the air raid.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Maneuvering: The RF is utilizing advanced waypoints for CMs, specifically the North-turn West of Khmelnytskyi (06:03). This suggests a sophisticated mission plan designed to exploit gaps in the Western Ukrainian IADS.
• Energy Decapitation: The Ministry of Energy's confirmation (05:38) aligns with a systematic attempt to collapse the Integrated Power System (IPS). The simultaneous targeting of Burshtyn (West) and substations near Pivdennoukrainsk (South) suggests an intent to isolate regional grids.
• Saturation Tactics: The arrival of UAVs in Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa concurrently with CM arrivals in Khmelnytskyi indicates a synchronized "time-on-target" strike to maximize AD exhaustion.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Active Defense: IADS units are heavily engaged in Khmelnytskyi and Lviv oblasts.
• Consequence Management: Ukrenergo and the Ministry of Energy have implemented emergency protocols. Local authorities in Lviv have modified transport logistics to minimize civilian density near potential transit targets (05:59).
• Security Posture: Today (Dec 23) marks the "Day of Encrypted Communications and Secrecy Service" for the DShV (05:59); heightened COMSEC is likely being practiced across C2 nodes during the air alert.

Information environment / disinformation

• Vovchansk Narrative: RF sources are prematurely claiming "liberation" of Vovchansk to project momentum.
• Western Hardware: The claim of destroying an Australian Abrams (05:43) targets both domestic RU audiences (victory narrative) and Australian political discourse regarding continued lethal aid.
• Strategic Pessimism: TASS is amplifying a Politico article suggesting an "unfavorable" end to the conflict in 2026 (05:57) to erode long-term Ukrainian and partner resolve during the kinetic strike.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued CM and UAV impacts in the Khmelnytskyi-Lviv-Ternopil triangle over the next 2 hours. National-level blackouts will likely persist for 12-24 hours as damage assessment begins.
• MDCOA: A transition to ballistic strikes (Iskander-M or Kinzhal) targeting repair hubs and thermal generation control rooms once the initial CM wave has fixed AD assets.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Pivdennoukrainsk Status: Urgent need for confirmation of any impacts on substations serving the South Ukraine NPP.
2. Khmelnytskyi Targets: Determine if the CMs turning North from Khmelnytskyi (06:03) are targeting the Starokostiantyniv Air Base or energy infrastructure in Zhytomyr/Rivne.
3. Vovchansk FLOT: Geolocation required to confirm the current Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT) in Vovchansk following RU "liberation" claims.

//REPORT ENDS//