(05:10-05:13, STERNENKO/РБК-Україна, HIGH): Confirmed repeated kinetic impacts at the Burshtyn TPP; facility remains a primary target for the current wave of OWA-UAVs and cruise missiles.
(05:17-05:31, РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Emergency power shutoffs (blackouts) implemented in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Cherkasy regions; nationwide grid instability reported as Russian strikes target generation and transmission nodes.
(05:06-05:30, Air Force, HIGH): Significant cruise missile (CM) penetration into Western Ukraine. Missiles detected transiting Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi oblasts, vectoring toward Ternopil.
(05:06, ТАСС, LOW): UNCONFIRMED Russian claim of a 1km tactical advance west of Siversk (Donetsk) over the last 48 hours.
(05:20, ASTRA, HIGH): Confirmation of damage to port infrastructure and a civilian vessel in Odesa following the overnight UAV/ballistic engagement.
(05:31, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): Reported Ukrainian OWA-UAV strike on Budennovsk (Stavropol Krai, RF) overnight; potential targeting of military or petrochemical assets in the Russian rear.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Central Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Cherkasy): The missile transit corridor remains active. New CM groups entered via Sumy (Hlukhiv) at 05:06 and 05:22, vectoring toward Konotop and Romny. Air defense continues to engage targets over Kyiv (05:31) and Cherkasy (05:18). Emergency blackouts in these sectors suggest either preventative measures or localized grid failure following impacts.
Western Axis (Khmelnytskyi/Ternopil/Lviv): The focus of the kinetic effort has shifted West. CMs have reached Khmelnytskyi (05:26) and are moving toward Ternopil (05:30). OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) are currently threatening Shepetivka (04:59, 05:28) and Lviv Oblast (Khodoriv/Zhydachiv) (05:18), indicating a synchronized arrival of slow and fast assets to saturate regional IADS.
Eastern Axis (Donbas): Positional fighting continues. RF claims an advance near Siversk (05:06), while RU sources report coordinated drone/artillery strikes in the Vremyivka direction (05:30). High-intensity shelling (668 strikes) reported in the Zaporizhzhia sector over the last 24h, specifically targeting 23 settlements (05:10).
Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv): Damage assessment from the earlier ballistic/UAV wave confirms a hit on port infrastructure and a civilian ship (05:20). Situation in Kryvyi Rih remains "controlled" as of 05:33.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Axis Saturation: The RF is currently executing a complex, staggered CM/UAV strike. The use of the Vinnytsia-Ladyzhyn-Gaisyn transit route (05:13, 05:15) suggests an intent to bypass central AD clusters to hit targets in the West (Burshtyn, Ternopil, Lviv).
Targeting Infrastructure: Explicit targeting of the Burshtyn TPP and general electricity transmission lines (05:23) is intended to collapse the Ukrainian energy grid during the ongoing cold snap.
Tactical Advance (Donetsk): While the Siversk advance remains unconfirmed by UAF sources, the claim (0.54 belief score) aligns with RU efforts to flatten the Siversk salient.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Grid Management: Ukrenergo has transitioned to emergency shutdown protocols in northern and central oblasts to protect the Integrated Power System (IPS) from cascading failure.
Active Defense: Continuous IADS engagement reported across all central and western oblasts.
Deep Strikes: Ukrainian OWA-UAVs successfully penetrated Russian airspace to target Budennovsk, likely aimed at disrupting logistics or refueling for RU aviation assets.
Information environment / disinformation
RU Justification: Russian mil-bloggers (Poddubny, 05:23) are framing the strikes on energy infrastructure as "logistical interdiction" to disrupt military rail shipments, despite the damage to civilian vessels in Odesa.
Tactical Claims: TASS/Marochko (05:06) are pushing the Siversk advance narrative to demonstrate progress on the ground while the air campaign dominates headlines.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Cruise missile impacts in Ternopil and Lviv oblasts within the next 30-60 minutes. High probability of continued emergency blackouts expanding to Western Ukraine as the strike wave concludes.
MDCOA: A "second peak" of the attack utilizing the MiG-31K (Kinzhal) and potentially sea-launched Kalibrs from the Black Sea to target repair crews or emergency services at hit infrastructure sites (double-tap tactic).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Burshtyn TPP BDA: Need clear assessment of whether the TPP has been knocked offline or if the hits were on peripheral substations.
Siversk Verification: Require geolocation or UAF confirmation of the 1km RF advance west of Siversk.
Budennovsk Strike Impact: Determine the specific target in Budennovsk (Airfield vs. Lukoil refinery) to assess UAF deep-strike priorities.
