(04:08, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Preliminary reports of Kalibr cruise missile launches from the Black Sea.
(04:22, Оперативний ЗСУ/РБК-Україна, HIGH): Kinetic impacts reported in Burshtyn (Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast). Seven OWA-UAVs were detected vectoring toward this location (04:27, Николаевский Ванёк).
(04:26, Николаевский Ванёк, MEDIUM): Secondary salvo of Kalibr cruise missiles reportedly launched from the Caspian Sea.
(04:27, Операция Z, MEDIUM): Russian sources released footage claiming the "liberation" of Vilcha (Kharkiv Oblast), supporting earlier reports of a tactical breakthrough in the North.
(04:33, KMVA, HIGH): Takeoff of a MiG-31K (Kinzhal carrier) confirmed; nationwide air alert initiated due to aero-ballistic threat.
(04:09, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Sumy OVA confirms a massed OWA-UAV attack occurred overnight in the Sumy region.
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Axis (Ivano-Frankivsk/Ternopil): The focus has shifted to Burshtyn. The presence of 7 UAVs in this specific sector (04:27) and reported explosions (04:22) strongly suggests a deliberate strike against the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP), a critical node for the Western Ukrainian power grid and electricity exports.
Central Axis (Kyiv/Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia): Kyiv is under multi-vector attack. UAVs are penetrating via Bucha (04:11) and Brovary (04:21). Active Air Defense (AD) engagements are ongoing in Kyiv city (04:27). A new threat vector has appeared in Vinnytsia Oblast via Nemyriv (04:23).
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): The tactical situation in Kharkiv has deteriorated. Video evidence (04:27) suggests RF forces are consolidating control over Vilcha, likely using it as a springboard for further southward movement toward Vovchansk.
Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv): New OWA-UAV groups are vectoring toward Odesa and Mykolaiv (04:18), indicating the RF is maintaining pressure on port infrastructure to fix AD assets away from the capital.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Strike Coordination: The RF has successfully synchronized a "saturation strike." The current threat profile includes:
OWA-UAVs (Shaheds): Continuing to probe and fix AD in Kyiv and Western Ukraine.
SLCMs (Kalibr): Two-axis launch from Black and Caspian Seas (04:08, 04:26).
ALCMs (Kh-101/555): Expected arrival of the 9-bomber package (from 03:08 launch).
Aero-ballistics (Kh-47M2 Kinzhal): MiG-31K airborne as of 04:33.
Strategic Intent: Targeting the energy sector during a cold snap (-11°C) to induce maximum civilian hardship and infrastructure failure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Integrated Air Defense (IADS): Active engagements reported in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, and Ivano-Frankivsk.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Likely active in the Zhytomyr/Kyiv corridor given the "circular" movement of UAVs reported by monitors (04:19).
Information environment / disinformation
Energy Resilience Denial: Pro-RF channels (Операция Z, 04:07) are amplifying narratives of Russian LNG export success to China, attempting to project economic invulnerability despite ongoing Western sanctions.
Casualty Narratives: TASS (04:08) is highlighting alleged civilian casualties within the RF to justify the current massed strike as "retaliatory."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of the combined cruise missile (Kalibr/Kh-101) and aero-ballistic (Kinzhal) wave within the next 30-60 minutes. Primary targets remain the Kyiv "decision-making centers" and the Western energy corridor (Burshtyn/Rivne).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A sustained wave of Kinzhal strikes targeting AD radar sites once they are fixed by the incoming Shahed/Kalibr waves, followed by a second Tu-95MS sortie to exploit gaps in the umbrella.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Burshtyn BDA: Urgent need for Battle Damage Assessment of the Burshtyn TPP. Is the facility still synchronizing with the grid?
Kalibr Trajectory: Confirm if the Caspian-launched Kalibrs are traversing Dagestan/Russia or crossing via the Southern corridor.
Vilcha Depth: Confirm the size of the RF force in Vilcha. Is there mechanized follow-through or is it primarily light infantry/TDF?
