(03:38, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) have expanded their ingress vector from Khmelnytskyi into Ternopil Oblast, indicating a deeper penetration into Western Ukraine.
(03:43, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): Multiple UAV groups detected in Northern Kyiv Oblast, vectoring toward Zhytomyr Oblast.
(03:43, Two Majors, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources claim a "massed strike" on Rivne is ongoing, providing video evidence of kinetic activity.
(03:45, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Tactical clearing of the UAV threat in Mykolaiv and Zhytomyr regions ("minus"), suggesting either successful interception or redirection of assets.
(04:03, KMVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens activated in Kyiv city due to direct drone threat.
(04:04, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Single UAV confirmed transiting Bucha toward Vyshhorod/Kyiv; kinetic engagement (AD fire) is imminent.
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Axis (Rivne/Ternopil): The threat has metastasized. While Rivne continues to take kinetic impacts (Two Majors, 03:43), the movement into Ternopil suggests the RF is probing for gaps in the Western IADS (Integrated Air Defense System) to target logistics hubs or energy infrastructure further from the Polish border.
Central Axis (Kyiv/Zhytomyr): Kyiv is now under direct threat. The trajectory through Bucha/Vyshhorod (04:04) indicates an attempt to penetrate the capital’s northern AD umbrella. The earlier Zhytomyr threat appears to have been suppressed or transitioned.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv): Area currently reported clear of UAV threats (03:45). This may indicate a shift in focus toward the Western and Central "prestige" targets.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
OWA-UAV Tactics: The RF is employing a "leaking" tactic—dispersing small groups of drones (as few as one unit per vector, as seen in Bucha) to force the activation of AD radars and deplete interceptor stocks immediately prior to the expected arrival of cruise missiles.
Strategic Aviation Update: Based on the previous report (03:08 launch), the 9-bomber strike package (Tu-95MS/Tu-160) is now in the terminal flight phase. Impacts from Kh-101/555/55 missiles are expected within the 04:15–05:15 UTC window.
Tactical Logistics (Vostok Grouping): (Colonelcassad, 04:02) Confirmed reliance of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade on volunteer-provided civilian vehicles ("Bukhanka"). This corroborates a sustained deficit in standard military tactical transport within the Vostok grouping (DS Belief: 0.60).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Engagement: Active engagement reported in the Northern outskirts of Kyiv.
Civil Defense: Kyiv City Military Administration has moved the capital to full alert status.
Information environment / disinformation
Global Diversionary Narrative: (TASS, 03:37) RF state media is amplifying a US Navy incident in the Pacific. This is assessed as a hybrid effort to dilute international media focus on the massed strikes currently hitting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Pro-War Sustainment: Pro-RF milbloggers continue to use strike footage to drive fundraising for tactical-level logistics, highlighting a persistent gap between Russian MoD supply and frontline needs.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) targeting Kyiv and Western energy nodes (Rivne/Ternopil/Khmelnytskyi) between 04:30 and 06:00 UTC. The UAVs currently over Kyiv are likely "fixers" for this primary strike.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized arrival of ALCMs with "Oreshnik" or Iskander-M ballistic strikes from Belarus/Russia, timed to coincide with the morning commute to maximize civilian psychological impact and overwhelm AD recovery windows.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
ALCM Confirmation: Urgent need to confirm the first cruise missile crossings into Ukrainian airspace.
Impact Assessment (Ternopil/Rivne): Determine if the shift toward Ternopil targets the gas transit infrastructure or electrical substations.
Tactical Mobility: Monitor the 37th Bde (Vostok) for signs that civilian vehicle reliance is impacting their ability to conduct mechanized maneuver in the East.
