(03:08, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Confirmed pre-launch maneuvers by Russian strategic aviation in the Volgograd Oblast (standard launch sector for Caspian-bound sorties).
(03:12, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Strategic bomber composition verified as 9 aircraft: 6x Tu-95MS and 3x Tu-160 (Blackjack). Note: The inclusion of Tu-160s represents a higher payload capacity than previously estimated.
(03:17-03:28, Николаевский Ванёк/Air Force ZSU, HIGH): Multi-axis OWA-UAV (Shahed) ingress continues; 4 units vectoring toward Rivne, 4 toward Zhytomyr, and a larger group traversing Chernihiv toward Kyiv.
(03:27, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Kinetic impacts/explosions reported in Rivne following UAV approach.
(03:30, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): 3 OWA-UAVs detected approaching the Mykolaiv region from the direction of Alexandrovka.
(03:23-03:31, НгП раZVедка/Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): Coordinated psychological operation (PSYOPS) on Telegram targeting Ukrainian civilians with "wake up" messages, timed to coincide with air raid sirens and kinetic strikes.
Operational picture (by sector)
Strategic Rear (National): The Russian Federation (RF) is executing a synchronized, multi-domain strike. OWA-UAVs are currently saturating Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) nodes across Western (Rivne), Central (Zhytomyr/Kyiv), and Southern (Mykolaiv) Ukraine.
Western Axis (Rivne): Area of active engagement. Kinetic activity confirmed at 03:27 UTC. Likely targeting energy infrastructure or logistics nodes connected to the Polish border.
Northern/Central Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Zhytomyr): A secondary swarm is transiting Chernihiv toward the capital. This suggests an attempt to fix Kyiv’s high-end AD assets (Patriot/SAMP-T) while missiles are in flight.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv): Low-volume drone threat (3 units) moving toward Alexandrovka, likely intended for radar harassment or spotting for Naval-launched Kalibr strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Aviation: The 9-bomber strike package (Tu-95MS/Tu-160) has likely completed missile releases in the Volgograd/Caspian region. Based on Kh-101/555 flight speeds, cruise missile arrival in Ukrainian airspace is expected between 04:15 and 05:00 UTC.
Tactical Shift: The use of Tu-160s (supersonic heavy bombers) indicates an intent to deliver a high-volume saturation strike, possibly targeting hardened command centers or large-scale energy distribution hubs.
Hybrid Operations: RF state media (TASS, 03:31) is highlighting domestic legal shifts (fines for abortion coercion) and international vulnerabilities (Ireland’s subsea cables), likely to distract domestic audiences from frontline losses and frame the conflict within a broader "civilizational" and global-security context.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively engaging targets in the Western sector. IADS is in "High Alert" across the Northern and Central sectors.
Counter-PSYOPS: UAF communication channels are maintaining focus on technical air threat data to counteract RF-driven panic narratives.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Harassment: Pro-Russian milbloggers (НгП раZVедка) are utilizing satirical and derogatory content to degrade Ukrainian civilian morale during the overnight strikes.
Global Vulnerability Narrative: The amplification of a Telegraph report regarding Irish maritime vulnerability (03:30) serves as a hybrid threat signal to NATO, suggesting that RF reach extends to critical subsea infrastructure in the Atlantic.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Massed cruise missile impacts across Kyiv, Rivne, and Khmelnytskyi between 04:30 and 06:00 UTC. RF will use the results of the UAV "probing" to bypass active AD corridors.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated strike using the airborne cruise missiles in conjunction with "Oreshnik" ballistic systems from Belarus (referenced in 24h report) to hit Western Ukrainian GLOCs (Lines of Communication) with near-zero warning time.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Missile Count: Confirm the total number of cruise missiles (Kh-101/555/55) launched from the 9-bomber package.
BDA Rivne: Urgent requirement for Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the 03:27 explosions to determine if primary targets were hit.
Black Sea Surface/Sub-surface: Identify if any Kalibr-capable vessels have conducted launches to synchronize with the air-launched component.
