(02:37, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): 12 Russian strategic bombers (likely Tu-95MS) are airborne and heading toward launch positions; this indicates a transition from UAV-only saturation to a massed missile strike.
(02:46-02:51, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): OWA-UAV (Shahed) swarm has expanded into Western Ukraine, with vectors confirmed toward Rivne and Khmelnytskyi via Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia.
(02:44, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): New OWA-UAV groups detected over the Black Sea, vectoring toward Pivdennyi and the Mykolaiv region.
(02:53, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian state media reports significant delays in international parcel deliveries via "Post of Russia" and CDEK, suggesting intensifying logistical or cross-border payment friction within the RF.
Operational picture (by sector)
Strategic Rear (National): The aerial threat has evolved into a multi-axis operation. The presence of 12 strategic aircraft suggests a coordinated "strike package" aimed at the energy grid or military C2. The drone swarm is now covering the majority of Ukrainian territory, from the Black Sea coast to the western oblasts (Rivne/Khmelnytskyi).
Western Axis (Rivne/Khmelnytskyi/Vinnytsia): This area is now under active drone threat. RF is likely targeting regional substations or logistics hubs (e.g., Starokostiantyniv) to maximize the impact of the cold-snap energy degradation.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Odesa): Continued pressure from the Black Sea. The vector toward Pivdennyi suggests threats to port infrastructure, complementing the earlier reports of suppression attempts against Kulbakino Airbase.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): No new tactical ground updates since 02:09. The status of Dimitrove remains UNCONFIRMED and highly contested. The earlier RF claim of "encirclement" lacks corroboration and is currently assessed as a psychological operation (PSYOPS).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Maneuver: The deployment of 12 strategic bombers is a significant escalation from the overnight drone activity. Based on standard flight profiles, missile launches are expected between 04:00 and 05:30 UTC.
UAV Tactical Shift: Drones are being used as "pathfinders" to map active IADS (Integrated Air Defense System) nodes in Western Ukraine, likely to clear a corridor for the incoming cruise missiles (Kh-101/555).
Logistics Fragility: The TASS report on delivery delays may indicate that secondary sanctions or UAF deep strikes (referenced in the 24h report) are causing systemic friction in RF dual-use logistics chains.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging multiple drone groups across the northern, southern, and central corridors. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are being repositioned to protect the western logistics/energy nodes.
C2 Readiness: National command is likely transitioning to "High Alert" for a massed missile arrival.
Information environment / disinformation
Logistics Narrative: The Russian report on postal delays (02:53) may be an attempt to manage domestic expectations regarding economic degradation or a precursor to further state control over logistical hubs.
PSYOPS Persistence: Expect increased RF "frontline collapse" narratives on Telegram to coincide with the kinetic missile strikes to maximize civil-military friction.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A massed, synchronized missile strike involving 60-100 cruise missiles (air and sea-launched) hitting energy infrastructure and airfields between 04:30 and 06:00 UTC.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-domain "Blackout Strike" where the missile complex coincides with a large-scale cyber-attack on the power grid and a localized ground breakthrough in the Pokrovsk/Dimitrove sector, aimed at inducing a regional defensive collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bomber Launch Points: Confirm if the 12 aircraft have reached the Caspian or Engels launch lines.
Dimitrove FLOT: URGENT—Verified ground-truth on UAF positions in Dimitrove to debunk or confirm encirclement claims.
Black Sea Fleet Status: Monitor for Kalibr-capable vessels exiting Novorossiysk to coordinate with the air-launched component.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Framework)
The battlefield geometry has expanded from localized ground pressure in the East to a full-theater strategic air operation. The RF is utilizing a "probing" drone swarm to exhaust AD before committing its primary strategic aviation assets.
ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF "Center" group continues to fix UAF forces in the Donbas while the General Staff executes a "Strategic Strike Complex." The use of 12 aircraft suggests they are seeking a high-volume saturation to overcome modern Western-supplied AD systems.
FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is currently in a "passive-defensive" aerial posture, conserving high-end interceptors for the incoming bomber-launched missiles while utilizing MFGs for the OWA-UAV threat. Force density in the West (Rivne/Khmelnytskyi) is being tested.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
The next 3 hours are critical. The timing of the bomber sortie suggests the RF intends to hit targets at dawn to complicate rapid repair and recovery efforts in sub-zero temperatures.
