(02:09, TASS, LOW):UNCONFIRMED RF MoD claims that "Center" group stormtroopers are "finishing off" surrounded UAF formations in Dimitrove (Donetsk/Pokrovsk sector).
(02:33, Nikolaevsky Vanyok, MEDIUM): Tactical report of a loitering munition (OWA-UAV) vectoring specifically toward Kulbakino (Mykolaiv Oblast), likely targeting the airbase.
(02:13, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): National-level confirmation that the "Shahed" (OWA-UAV) threat remains active across multiple regions; previous saturation levels (130+ reported at 01:40) persist.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Dimitrove): The RF "Center" group has reportedly intensified operations in the vicinity of Dimitrove (Myrnohrad area). While RF claims of "encirclement" are likely hyperbolic for information operations, the tactical pressure in this sector is critical, suggesting a push to exploit the UAF's focus on the northern (Vilcha) and southern (Zaporizhzhia) threats.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia): Targeting has shifted to specific high-value assets. The report of a UAV moving on Kulbakino indicates a deliberate attempt to suppress UAF tactical aviation or regional air defenses that could intercept the anticipated cruise missile wave.
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv): No new kinetic updates since the 01:58 KAB strikes and 01:48 power outages. The situation remains one of "active defense" under heavy bombardment and grid instability.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ground Maneuver Adaptation: RF "Center" group activity in Dimitrove suggests they are attempting to maintain tempo in the Donbas to prevent UAF from shifting reserves to stabilize the Vilcha breach in the north.
Targeted Suppression: The flight path toward Kulbakino (Mykolaiv) suggests the RF is moving from broad saturation to "Point Target Suppression" (PTS) ahead of the next phase of the strike complex.
Persistence of the Drone Swarm: The duration of this UAV wave (now 3+ hours) is intended to exhaust IADS interceptor stocks and fatigue mobile fire group (MFG) crews before the primary missile strike (MLCOA).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Consolidation: UAF units in the Pokrovsk/Dimitrove sector are likely engaged in high-intensity urban or trench defense. There is currently no independent confirmation of the "encirclement" claimed by RF state media.
Counter-UAV Operations: MFGs and electronic warfare (EW) units are prioritizing targets moving toward strategic airfields (Kulbakino).
Information environment / disinformation
Claim of Encirclement: The RF MoD's rapid promotion of the Dimitrove "encirclement" (02:09) is likely a psychological operation designed to induce panic among UAF rear-area units and command elements during a period of high-stress national air alerts.
Ongoing "Shahed" Messaging: Ukrainian official sources (RBC-UA) are maintaining a high-frequency alert cadence to ensure civilian and military discipline during the prolonged swarm.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The drone toward Kulbakino is a final shaping element. Expect the arrival of sea-launched (Kalibr) and air-launched (Kh-101/555) missiles between 03:00 and 05:00 UTC, targeting both the energy grid and UAF air assets.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF "Center" group achieves a genuine breakthrough in Dimitrove, forcing a rapid UAF withdrawal and compromising the defensive integrity of the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk line while the national command is preoccupied with massed missile strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dimitrove Status: Immediate SIGINT or drone reconnaissance required to verify the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) in Dimitrove. Are UAF units truly cut off, or is this a fighting withdrawal?
Kulbakino Impact: BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) required for the Kulbakino vector. Monitor for secondary explosions indicating successful hits on fuel or munitions.
Electronic Warfare (EW) Effectiveness: Assess if the persistence of the OWA-UAV swarm is due to a failure in regional EW or a deliberate RF tactic to use drones that are more resilient to jamming.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Framework)
The RF is executing a two-pronged offensive: a massed aerial strike complex to degrade the strategic rear and a concentrated ground assault in the Donetsk sector (Dimitrove) to force a tactical collapse. The synchronization of the Kulbakino drone vector with the ongoing swarm indicates a high degree of operational control.
ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF is leveraging the "Center" group—traditionally their most capable maneuver element—to pressure the Pokrovsk axis. The claim of "encirclement" indicates they believe they have achieved a position of tactical advantage.
FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is forced into a multi-front defensive posture. The main constraint is the simultaneous requirement to defend the energy grid (Sumy), airbases (Kulbakino), and frontline positions (Dimitrove/Vilcha) against diverse threats (UAVs, KABs, Ground Assaults).
