(01:40, Операция Z, LOW):UNCONFIRMED reports claim a swarm of 130+ OWA-UAVs (Shahed/Geran) is currently over Ukraine; source also claims Black Sea Fleet "Kalibr" carriers have deployed to launch positions.
(01:48, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Sumy Regional Military Administration (OVA) confirms power outages across Sumy Oblast following sustained UAV strikes on energy infrastructure.
(01:58, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed launches of KAB (Guided Aerial Bombs) against targets in Kharkiv Oblast, likely supporting the ongoing RF offensive near Vilcha.
(02:04, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): A high-speed target (ballistic or cruise missile) detected moving toward Zaporizhzhia from the south.
(01:51-01:57, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): New OWA-UAV vectors identified entering from the Black Sea toward Mykolaiv and transiting from North Odesa toward Vinnytsia.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kyiv): The energy grid in Sumy is currently degraded. UAVs are transiting Kyiv Oblast moving West and South-West (Bila Tserkva), indicating a wide-area saturation intended to fix mobile fire groups (MFGs) away from the capital’s core and critical energy nodes.
Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia): A new wave of sea-launched UAVs has entered the airspace. The high-speed target toward Zaporizhzhia (02:04) marks a transition from "saturation" (UAVs) to "precision strike" (missiles) in the southern theater.
Eastern Axis (Kharkiv): Tactical aviation is actively utilizing KABs. This suggests the RF is pressing the advantage following the capture of Vilcha (reported 09:59Z previous day) to disrupt UAF defensive consolidations south of the border.
Strategic Depth: UAVs have reached Vinnytsia, indicating the strike complex is now penetrating the Western-Central operational rear.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Synchronization: The RF has expanded the strike profile from the strategic bomber threat (Tu-95/Tu-160) to include naval assets (Kalibr) and tactical aviation (KABs). This synchronized "Air-Sea-Land" pressure is designed to overwhelm the Ukrainian Integrated Air Defense System (IADS).
Infrastructure Targeting: The outages in Sumy confirm that the -11°C weather is being weaponized; the RF is prioritizing the "freeze-out" of border regions to complicate UAF logistics and civilian morale.
UAV Volume: While the count of "130 UAVs" remains unconfirmed, the geographical spread (from Sumy to Vinnytsia to Mykolaiv) supports the assessment of an exceptionally high-volume attack.
Friendly activity (UAF)
IADS Engagement: Air defense units are actively engaging targets across at least six Oblasts.
Grid Management: Energoatom/Ukrenergo are likely implementing emergency protocols in Sumy to prevent a cascading failure of the regional Integrated Power System (IPS).
Frontline Stability: In Kharkiv, units are facing increased pressure from aerial bombardment (KABs) while attempting to contain the Vilcha breach.
Information environment / disinformation
Panic Induction: Pro-Russian channels (Operatsia Z) are aggressively publicizing the scale of the attack ("130 UAVs," "Kalibrs out") to amplify the psychological impact of the "Tarhun" signal.
Noise Injection: Regional Russian police reports (Khabarovsk) regarding local cybercrime are appearing in broader intelligence feeds, serving as data noise that must be filtered from tactical kinetic reporting.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The high-speed target toward Zaporizhzhia is the precursor to a broader missile salvo. Expect impact timing for cruise missiles (Kh-101) launched from the strategic bombers to coincide with the arrival of Sea-launched Kalibrs between 03:00 and 04:30 UTC.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized strikes targeting the Kyiv "Decision Making Centers" and the Dnieper River hydroelectric dams, utilizing the "Oreshnik" systems from Belarus to decapitate C2 while the IADS is saturated by the current UAV swarm.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Naval Confirmation: Immediate SIGINT/IMINT required to confirm the number of Kalibr-capable vessels currently in launch boxes in the Black Sea.
KAB Target Identification: Determine if KAB strikes in Kharkiv are targeting frontline trenches or rear-area GLOCs/bridges.
Zaporizhzhia Impact: BDA for the 02:04 high-speed target; identify if it was an Iskander-M or an Kh-59/69.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Framework)
The RF has transitioned from preparation to the execution phase of a "Massed Combined Strike." The battlefield geometry has expanded to cover the entire national airspace. The environmental factor (-11°C) is now a primary force multiplier for the RF's kinetic effects on the energy sector.
ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF is employing a "leveled" strike doctrine:
Level 1: UAV saturation (ongoing, high volume).
Level 2: Tactical KABs and high-speed standoff missiles (initiated).
FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is maintaining high readiness, but the disruption of power in Sumy indicates that saturation tactics are achieving localized success in bypassing point defenses.
