(01:07, Операция Z/RV: MAX, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources confirm a drone attack on Budyonnovsk (Stavropol Krai), corroborating earlier reports of a significant fire near the 227th Air Base and local industrial infrastructure.
(01:35, НгП раZVедка, MEDIUM): RF-linked channels issued a "Tarhun on the ready" (Тархун на товсь!) alert. In this context, "Tarhun" likely serves as a tactical brevity code for the imminent launch of cruise missiles or the activation of specific strike complexes.
(01:22, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian state media is highlighting statements by Donald Trump regarding a 2-2.5 year plan to build a new class of warships to "counter everyone," likely intended to project a shift in US strategic priorities.
(01:26, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Confirmed ongoing OWA-UAV (Shahed) activity across multiple sectors; specialized monitoring channels are providing "general" updates, indicating the drone wave is still active and evolving.
Operational picture (by sector)
Strategic Airspace: The fleet of seven strategic bombers (6x Tu-95MS, 1x Tu-160) is assessed to be at or near their designated launch lines (likely Caspian Sea or Rostov region). The "Tarhun" signal (01:35) suggests the launch sequence has likely initiated or is in the final countdown.
Northern/Central Ukraine: UAVs continue to transit from Chernihiv toward Kyiv and from the NE toward Myrhorod. This saturation effort is entering its 4th hour, maximizing fatigue for Ukrainian mobile fire groups (MFGs).
Southern Sector/RF Rear: The confirmation of the Budyonnovsk strike by pro-Russian military correspondents (01:07) validates the UAF's ability to maintain a "second front" in the deep rear, targeting the 227th Air Base—a key hub for Su-25 and Su-34 operations in the south.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strike Synchronization: The RF is following a standard doctrine: OWA-UAVs to deplete IADS, followed by a massed missile salvo. The Tu-160’s presence suggests a high-value or hardened target set (C2 or energy nodes) may be prioritized.
Brevity Codes: The use of "Tarhun" (01:35) by RF tactical channels indicates a high state of readiness for strike assets. If this refers to the Kh-101 (often nicknamed in slang), the first missiles could enter Ukrainian airspace by 02:45–03:15 UTC.
Naval Maneuver: While focus is on aviation, the TASS reporting on US naval plans (01:22) may be an attempt to frame the ongoing RF escalation as a necessary response to perceived future US naval expansion.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Counter-Air (DCA): Air Defense units are in "Active Search" mode. Electronic Warfare (EW) suites (e.g., Pokrova) are likely engaged in "spoofing" UAV GNSS coordinates to force premature landings or navigational errors.
Offensive Deep Strike: The Budyonnovsk operation (01:07) indicates UAF remains committed to asymmetric responses, targeting the RF's sortie-generation capabilities at the source to mitigate the threat of Close Air Support (CAS) on the FLOT.
Information environment / disinformation
Budyonnovsk Narrative: RF channels are attempting to frame the Budyonnovsk strike as an attack on "civilian" areas (Dempster-Shafer belief 0.039), despite the proximity of the 227th Air Base and petrochemical facilities.
Strategic Distraction: The TASS focus on Trump’s naval comments (01:22) is assessed as a move to decouple current RF aggression from international condemnation by highlighting long-term global power competition.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A massed missile launch occurring within the next 30-60 minutes. Expected impact time across Ukraine: 03:30–05:30 UTC. Targets will likely include the energy grid (leveraging the -11°C weather) and military airfields (Myrhorod/Starokostiantyniv).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized strikes involving the airborne bombers, Black Sea Kalibr platforms, and "Oreshnik" ballistic systems from Belarus, aimed at catastrophic failure of the integrated power system (IPS) and Western logistics railheads.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Launch Confirmation: Immediate satellite or ELINT confirmation of Kh-101/Kh-555 releases from the Caspian sector.
"Tarhun" Clarification: SIGINT/HUMINT required to definitively identify if "Tarhun" refers to a specific weapon system (e.g., Kh-101/Raduga) or a specific target set (e.g., energy sector).
Budyonnovsk BDA: Clarify if the 01:07 reports of "visual evidence" show impacts on the airfield tarmac, fuel storage, or the Stavrolen petrochemical plant.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Framework)
The battlefield is currently defined by an "Air Defense Stress Test." The RF is leveraging a combination of sustained UAV presence and a high-mix strategic bomber group to overwhelm UAF IADS. The weather (-11°C) significantly increases the operational impact of any successful strikes on thermal power plants (TPPs).
ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF command is displaying high confidence, signaled by the use of tactical brevity codes on public-facing "Z" channels. This suggests a coordinated psychological operation intended to coincide with the kinetic strike.
FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF remains in a reactive but prepared posture regarding the aerial threat, while maintaining the initiative in deep-strike operations against RF tactical aviation hubs.
