(00:45, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): Confirmed takeoff of two (2) additional Tu-95MS from Olenya airfield. Total airborne strategic fleet is now six (6) Tu-95MS and one (1) Tu-160.
(00:52, ASTRA, HIGH): Reported strike and subsequent fire in Budennovsk, Stavropol Krai (RF). Visual evidence confirms significant blaze; site is near the 227th Air Base.
(00:59, UAF Air Force, HIGH): OWA-UAVs (Shahed) have entered Northern Kyiv region from Western Chernihiv.
(00:35, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAV groups detected approaching Myrhorod from the northeast.
(01:01, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAVs transiting from Mykolaiv toward Kirovohrad region.
(00:53, TASS, MEDIUM): RF authorities suspended the license of "Shaninka" (Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences), indicating continued internal ideological purges.
(01:03, Colonelcassad, LOW): UNCONFIRMED video claims of RF reconnaissance drone interactions with civilians in the Kupyansk sector; likely part of a "humanitarian" narrative shift.
Operational picture (by sector)
Strategic Airspace: The expansion of the bomber group to seven airframes (6x Tu-95MS, 1x Tu-160) suggests a potential salvo of 40-60 cruise missiles (Kh-101/555). The addition of the Olenya-based aircraft increases the complexity of timing for Ukrainian IADS.
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv): The UAV vector into Northern Kyiv (00:59, UAF AF) suggests an attempt to fix capital-area air defenses (Patriot/NASAMS) before the arrival of cruise missiles.
Central Axis (Poltava/Myrhorod): The threat to Myrhorod (00:35, UAF AF) indicates the 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade's infrastructure is a likely priority target for the current wave of "shaping" drone strikes.
Southern/Rear Area (Budennovsk): An apparent UAF deep-strike operation in Stavropol Krai (Budennovsk) targets RF tactical aviation hubs, likely intended to disrupt RF CAS/CAP sorties during the ongoing strategic strike.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Maneuver: Strategic bombers are likely in the final approach to launch positions. Expected launch window: 01:30–03:00 UTC. The presence of the Tu-160 "Blackjack" remains a critical threat due to its high-speed penetration capabilities.
UAV Saturation Strategy: The enemy is utilizing a broad-front UAV approach (Kyiv, Myrhorod, Kirovohrad) to force a high expenditure of SHORAD munitions and reveal IADS sensor positions.
C2/Internal (RF): The targeting of academic institutions (Shaninka) suggests the RF is tightening internal security/control measures, possibly in anticipation of social friction resulting from protracted mobilization or economic stress ($4,500/oz gold).
Friendly activity (UAF)
IADS Readiness: Air Defense units in Poltava, Kyiv, and Kirovohrad are in active engagement/tracking mode. Emphasis remains on electronic warfare (EW) to mitigate Shahed threats while conserving interceptor missiles for the expected missile wave.
Deep Strike Capability: Successful penetration of Stavropol Krai (Budennovsk) demonstrates UAF's continued ability to project power >500km behind the FLOT despite RF IADS.
Information environment / disinformation
Trump Signaling (TASS/Operativnyi ZSU): Russian state media is aggressively amplifying Donald Trump’s criticisms of Biden’s aid spending (00:36, TASS) and claims of "normal" negotiations (00:59, Operativnyi ZSU). This is assessed as a coordinated effort to create political uncertainty and undermine the perceived permanence of Western military support.
Kupyansk Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are attempting to humanize RF reconnaissance units to counter earlier reports of war crimes in Hrabovske.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Massed cruise missile strike between 03:00 and 05:30 UTC. Primary targets: Kyiv (C2), Myrhorod (Airbase), and Central/Western energy distribution nodes.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized missile strike with a maritime component from the Black Sea fleet and "Oreshnik" IRBM launches from Belarus to overwhelm western logistics hubs (Lviv/Kovel).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bomber Launch Verification: Immediate confirmation required of "launch" signatures from Caspian/Rostov sectors.
Budennovsk BDA: Satellite imagery or HUMINT required to confirm if the 227th Air Base or local industrial/fuel assets were the primary impact points in Budennovsk.
EW Effectiveness: Reporting on the success rate of Ukrainian GPS-jamming (Pokrova system) against the current wave of UAVs in the Myrhorod/Kyiv sectors.
SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Framework)
The battlefield geometry has shifted to a "deep strike" competition. While RF strategic bombers prepare a massed aerial assault, UAF is successfully harassing the RF's own rear-tier tactical aviation hubs (Budennovsk). Weather remains a non-factor for strategic aviation but may impact Shahed terminal guidance in the cold snap (-11°C as per daily report).
ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF capabilities are currently peaking in the "Strategic Aviation" domain. Tactical changes show a heavier reliance on "shaping" with UAVs for longer durations (4+ hours) before missile launches to ensure maximum IADS fatigue.
FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF readiness is high, but the expanding number of airborne bombers (7) increases the stress on the "missile-to-target" ratio for defensive assets.
