(00:08, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): Confirmed airborne status of four (4) Tu-95MS "Bear-H" and one (1) Tu-160 "Blackjack" strategic bombers.
(00:13, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple groups of enemy UAVs (OWA-UAVs/Shahed) detected over Mykolaiv region, transiting on South-to-North and East-to-West vectors.
(00:15, TASS, MEDIUM): Global gold prices have surged past $4,500/oz, a historic high, likely reflecting market reaction to regional escalation and "Oreshnik" deployment.
(00:17, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): High-level political signaling from Donald Trump regarding "normal" ongoing dialogue between Ukraine and Russia is being amplified in the information space.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Odesa): The UAV threat has broadened. While the previous hour focused on the Danube port cluster (Orlivka/Reni), new groups are now maneuvering through the Mykolaiv region (00:13, UAF Air Force). This indicates a multi-vector saturation effort designed to fix mobile fire groups (MFGs) away from the likely cruise missile flight paths.
Strategic Airspace: The presence of the Tu-160 "Blackjack" remains the primary operational concern. Its higher speed and larger payload (up to 12 Kh-101s) compared to the Tu-95MS suggest a coordinated, heavy-strike package targeting high-value infrastructure or hardened C2 nodes.
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv): No new kinetic ground updates since the 00:05 sitrep, but the "shaping" drone strikes reported earlier remain the baseline for expected local ground activity following the air campaign.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Maneuver: RF strategic aviation is likely approaching launch lines in the Caspian or Rostov-on-Don regions. The integration of a Tu-160 suggests a high-priority mission profile, potentially focusing on targets requiring high-mass arrivals to overwhelm localized point defenses (e.g., Kyiv or Western Ukrainian energy hubs).
UAV Saturation: The Mykolaiv UAV activity (South-to-North) suggests an attempt to bypass coastal defenses and strike targets further inland in Central Ukraine (Kropyvnytskyi/Cherkasy) or to pivot toward the Odesa-Zatoka logistics corridor from the rear.
Economic Warfare: The spike in gold prices (00:15, TASS) is being utilized in RF state media to underscore global instability, likely part of a broader "reflexive control" campaign to pressure Western backers regarding the costs of continued conflict.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force has issued active alerts for Mykolaiv and Southern regions. IADS is currently managing a "distributed threat" (UAVs in Bessarabia and Mykolaiv) while holding primary interceptor assets (S-300, Patriot, NASAMS) for the imminent strategic missile wave.
Information Defense: Ukrainian media is monitoring and contextualizing foreign political statements (Trump) to ensure domestic morale remains stable despite high-level diplomatic ambiguity.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Ambiguity: Reports of "normal" conversations between the parties (00:17, RBC-Ukraine) are being used to create a cognitive dissonance between the high-intensity kinetic strikes (bombers in the air) and the prospect of a negotiated settlement. This is assessed as an RF-backed attempt to soften the "will to fight" ahead of a major strike.
Market Instability Narrative: RF sources are highlighting the $4,500 gold price to signal that the "Oreshnik" deployment and current escalation are fundamentally altering the global economic order.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A synchronized missile and UAV strike between 03:00 and 05:00 UTC. The Tu-160/Tu-95 flight will launch Kh-101/555 missiles, likely timed to reach targets as the current UAV swarms in Mykolaiv and the Danube exhaust local AD ammunition.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): In addition to the cruise missile strike, the RF utilizes the Tu-160’s high-altitude launch capability to mask a coordinated "Oreshnik" or other intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launch from Belarus or southwestern RF, targeting Western Ukrainian rail logistics.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bomber Launch Confirmation: Need immediate notification of missile releases (launch signatures) from the Tu-160/Tu-95 group.
UAV Terminal Targets: Determine if the Mykolaiv groups are vectoring toward the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant (SUNPP) or regional energy distribution nodes.
Internal RF C2: Monitor for further "post-Sarvarov" leadership changes in the RF MoD that might impact the execution of the current air operation.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational environment is currently in the "pre-impact" phase of a major strategic strike. Strategic bombers are confirmed airborne, and UAV swarms are actively mapping and saturating defenses in the South.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is demonstrating a coordinated use of diverse platforms (Tu-160, Tu-95, Shahed) to maximize the probability of penetration.
FRIENDLY FORCES: IADS is active; the primary constraint remains the trade-off between using missiles on UAVs vs. preserving them for the Tu-160’s payload.
