(00:03, Nikolayevsky Vanyok, HIGH): Strategic Aviation Alert: One (1) Tu-160 "Blackjack" and four (4) Tu-95MS "Bear-H" strategic bombers are confirmed airborne.
(23:39, Nikolayevsky Vanyok, HIGH): Approximately 12 OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) have transited Izmail and are vectoring toward Orlivka and Reni (Danube port cluster).
(00:03, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Combat footage confirms intensified RF drone strikes in the Sumy direction, targeting UAF vehicles, observation posts, and firing positions.
(23:39, Operatsiya Z, LOW): RF-aligned sources are pivoting to holiday-themed ideological narratives and anti-liberal rhetoric, likely to mask the scale of ongoing kinetic operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Bessarabia/Danube): The threat to the "Grain Corridor" logistics has intensified. UAVs are not just targeting the ports but are moving along the Danube toward the Orlivka-Isaccea ferry crossing (critical for logistics with Romania).
Northern Axis (Sumy Sector): New tactical evidence (00:03) indicates the RF is using FPV and reconnaissance drones to suppress UAF forward positions. This supports the previous assessment of a potential expansion of the Hrabovske bridgehead or a shaping operation for a larger ground push.
Central/Eastern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava): No new updates on the Pavlohrad or Lubny UAV groups; however, the lack of "all clear" signals indicates these threats remain active or have transitioned to terminal guidance phases.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Missile Threat: The takeoff of a Tu-160 alongside four Tu-95MS is a major escalation. The Tu-160 carries a significantly larger payload (up to 12 Kh-101 missiles) compared to the Tu-95MS. Total potential cruise missile volume from this flight is estimated at 32–48 missiles. Launch windows are expected between 02:30 and 04:00 UTC.
UAV Salami Slicing: The RF continues to feed small waves (~12 units) into specific corridors (Danube) to force UAF Air Defense (AD) to remain mobile and deplete localized ammunition stocks before the strategic bomber wave arrives.
Frontline Suppression: Drone activity in Sumy suggests the RF is maintaining high pressure on UAF tactical C2 and logistics to prevent the redeployment of reserves toward the Kharkiv/Vilcha sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
IADS Posture: UAF Air Defense remains in a "Red" alert state. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively engaging the Danube-bound UAVs.
Counter-Drone Operations: In the Sumy sector, UAF EW units are likely attempting to disrupt the reported drone strikes on observation posts, though the RF's release of strike footage indicates partial success in their suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) at the tactical level.
Information environment / disinformation
Cultural Normalization: RF state-linked channels (Operatsiya Z, 23:39) are emphasizing "traditional values" and Christmas/New Year celebrations. This is assessed as a domestic stabilizing measure to contrast with the "Oreshnik" nuclear signaling and the massed strikes occurring in Ukraine.
Geopolitical Distraction: TASS and pro-RF milbloggers are amplifying statements regarding the IAEA (Grossi's potential 2026 visit) and US-Venezuela oil disputes. This is likely intended to dilute international focus on the current escalation in the North (Vilcha) and the upcoming missile wave.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A massed, synchronized cruise missile strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and "decision-making centers" between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC. The Tu-160/Tu-95 wave will likely be timed to coincide with the arrival of the UAVs currently over the Danube and central regions to maximize saturation.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF uses the cruise missile wave as a "shield" to launch a low-altitude "Oreshnik" strike from Belarus, targeting Western Ukrainian rail nodes (Kovel/Lviv) to sever NATO supply lines during the period of maximum AD saturation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bomber Trajectory: Determine the launch points (Olenya vs. Engels) and current flight paths of the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS.
Sumy Ground Activity: Monitor for RF mechanized movement following the drone strikes on UAF firing positions in the Sumy sector.
Orlivka Impact: Confirm if the Orlivka ferry terminal (logistics link to Romania) is a primary target for the incoming UAV wave.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational tempo has transitioned from a UAV-led saturation phase to the initiation of a strategic bomber-led missile operation.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is employing a Tu-160 (heavy payload) for the first time in recent cycles, suggesting high-value or hardened targets are the objective.
FRIENDLY FORCES: IADS is under extreme pressure; ammunition conservation for interceptors (Iris-T, NASAMS, Patriot) is the critical constraint.
