(23:30, Nikolayevsky Vanyok, MEDIUM): Concentration of approximately 12 OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) detected in the vicinity of Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk region).
(23:23, UA Air Force, HIGH): New groups of UAVs launched from the Black Sea are vectoring toward Izmail; this expands the threat to the Danube port cluster beyond the earlier reported Reni strikes.
(23:31, UA Air Force, HIGH): A single UAV is confirmed approaching Lubny (Poltava region) from the east, indicating deep penetration into central Ukraine.
(23:32, UA Air Force, HIGH): Pavlohrad is under a multi-vector threat with UAVs approaching from both the East and Northeast.
(23:27, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Confirmed coordinated drone activity across Eastern, Northern, and Southern oblasts, characterizing this as a synchronized nationwide effort.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Danube Cluster): The threat has expanded. While previous reports focused on Reni, the 23:23 update confirms Izmail is now a primary target. The use of the Black Sea as a launch/transit point suggests RF is utilizing maritime corridors to mask low-altitude approaches to Bessarabian port infrastructure.
Central/Eastern Axis (Pavlohrad Hub): The concentration of ~12 UAVs near Pavlohrad (23:30) is critical. Pavlohrad serves as a primary logistical and rail junction for UAF forces in the Donbas. A successful strike here would disrupt the flow of reinforcements and supplies to the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Rear/Interior (Poltava/Lubny): The movement toward Lubny (23:31) suggests the RF is either targeting specific energy infrastructure or attempting to fix UAF Air Defense (AD) assets in the interior to prevent their redeployment to the front lines.
Northern/Kharkiv Front: While no new kinetic impacts were reported in the last 30 minutes, the general alert for Northern regions (23:27) remains active following the earlier explosion near Kharkiv (22:52).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Analysis: The RF has transitioned from a localized strike on the Danube to a multi-domain, multi-vector saturation attack. By simultaneous targeting of the Danube ports (logistics), Pavlohrad (rail/GLOCs), and Lubny (interior), the RF is attempting to overwhelm the UAF's Integrated Air Defense System (IADS).
UAV Maneuver: The "constantly changing" courses noted in the previous sitrep, combined with the pincer approach on Pavlohrad (E and NE), confirms a high degree of real-time flight path management by RF operators.
Logistics Linkage: The rapid refill of the 2652th GRAU Base (SAR 27.04) reported in the daily summary is now clearly fueling this sustained high-intensity drone/missile cycle.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF mobile fire groups and EW units are active in the Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa regions. The detection of UAVs near Lubny indicates that long-range radar surveillance remains operational despite RF SEAD efforts.
Counter-Maneuver: No change to 225th Assault Regiment status in Zaporizhzhia; however, the Pavlohrad threat directly endangers their rear-area sustainment.
Information environment / disinformation
Domestic Distraction (RF): TASS (23:32) is disseminating reporting on Russian State Duma legislative proposals regarding "kids' champagne" and public health. This is assessed as routine domestic signaling intended to maintain a "business as usual" atmosphere within the RF interior despite the ongoing high-intensity strike campaign.
Alert Dissemination: UA Air Force and RBK-UA are maintaining high-cadence reporting to ensure civilian and tactical readiness.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Kinetic impacts in Pavlohrad and Izmail within the next 30-90 minutes. This will likely be the "shaping" phase for the strategic bomber wave (Tu-95/160) previously identified, with missile launches expected between 03:00 and 05:00 UTC.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF uses the saturation of AD in Pavlohrad to launch a high-speed ballistic strike (Iskander or Oreshnik) against the rail bridges connecting the Dnipro west bank to the eastern front, effectively isolating UAF forces in the Donbas.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pavlohrad Targeting: Determine if the 12 UAVs are targeting the Pavlohrad Mechanical Plant (defense production) or the Pavlohrad-1 railway junction.
Black Sea Launch Platforms: Identify if the UAVs targeting Izmail are being launched from land-based sites in Crimea or from naval vessels/barges in the Black Sea.
Kharkiv BDA: Clarify the status of the 22:52 explosion outside Kharkiv; is the RF 2nd line of defense being softened for a ground push from the Vilcha bridgehead?
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: A synchronized nationwide UAV assault is underway, shifting focus from purely port infrastructure to critical rail junctions (Pavlohrad) and interior nodes (Lubny).
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is executing a multi-vector saturation tactic to deplete AD interceptors prior to an expected strategic missile wave.
FRIENDLY FORCES: IADS is heavily engaged across multiple oblasts; focus remains on protecting GLOCs to the Eastern front.
