(20:29, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed secondary wave of "Shahed" (Geran-2) launches from Kursk, Millerovo, and Orel. This indicates a multi-axis saturation attack likely timed to coincide with strategic aviation strikes.
(20:20, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Tactical success in the Siversk direction; Spear Group B destroyed 2 RF main battle tanks (MBTs) using FPV drones.
(20:21, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): 39th Bde and 34th UAV Center successfully neutralized an RF "Strela-10" short-range SAM and a 2S9 "Nona-S" self-propelled mortar, degrading RF organic air defense and indirect fire support in an unspecified active sector.
(20:33, TASS/RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF claims to have intercepted 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and the Black Sea in a 3-hour window. This corroborates continued UAF pressure on the Sevastopol/Crimean logistics hub.
(20:07, Operatsia Z/Zelensky, MEDIUM): Announcement of upcoming US-Ukraine security guarantees, with "non-public" clauses, likely regarding long-term munitions supply or deep-strike authorizations.
(20:28, Operatsia Z, LOW):UNCONFIRMED / DISINFORMATION ALERT: Reports of an "armed clash between foreign mercenaries" in central Kyiv. This is assessed with low confidence and is likely an RF information operation designed to project internal instability within UA ranks.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): No new territorial changes reported since the fall of Vilcha. However, the launch of UAVs from Kursk (20:29) suggests the Northern border remains a primary staging area for the ongoing aerial offensive.
Eastern Axis (Siversk/Bakhmut): High-intensity combat persists near Andriivka (20:22). UAF tactical units (Spear Group B) are effectively using attrition tactics against RF armor (20:20). The destruction of the Strela-10 (20:21) indicates a localized window of air superiority for UAF drone operators.
Southern Axis (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia): UAF units (Hayabusa) report active targeting of RF positions on the Left Bank of the Dnipro (20:13). In Zaporizhzhia, air alerts are active (20:32) as UAVs transit the sector.
Odesa/Black Sea: A lone "Shahed" is loitering/approaching the Zatoka area from the Black Sea (20:06). This likely serves as a reconnaissance-by-fire or a probe of the M-15 corridor’s air defenses.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aerial Offensive: The convergence of UAVs from Kursk (North), Orel (North), and Millerovo (East) toward Western/Central Ukraine suggests a coordinated attempt to find and fix "famous Lithuanian generation" (Western-supplied energy/power infrastructure) as noted in RF milblogger chatter (20:03).
Internal RF Controls: The "cleansing" of the judicial corps in Southern Russia by Supreme Court Chair Krasnov (20:07) may indicate a move to consolidate control over logistics and mobilization hubs near the front following recent C2 failures (Sarvarov).
Course of Action: RF is currently executing a multi-domain saturation effort. Drones are being used to map/deplete AD before a potential follow-on missile strike from strategic assets (Tu-95MS).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Battery & AD Suppression: Targeted strikes on 2S9 Nona and Strela-10 systems (20:21) demonstrate a continued focus on stripping RF maneuver units of their protective umbrellas and organic fire support.
Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelensky’s confirmation of US security guarantees (20:07) serves as a morale stabilizer amidst the current winter offensive and domestic funding shifts.
Information environment / disinformation
Kinetic Disinfo: The claim of a "mercenary shootout" in Kyiv (20:28) follows a pattern of RF psychological operations aimed at undermining the legitimacy of the International Legion and UAF stability.
Geopolitical Framing: RF state media (TASS) is aggressively amplifying Hungarian PM Orbán’s claims of EU preparation for war (20:22) to foster European internal division and domestic RF mobilization narratives.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation across the Northern and Southern corridors, focusing on Odesa/Zatoka and Western UA energy nodes. Expect the arrival of sea-launched or air-launched cruise missiles within the 0200-0500 UTC window.
Tactical: Continued UAF drone-led attrition in the Siversk/Andriivka sectors to blunt the momentum of the RF's mechanized push.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Millerovo Activity: Confirm if the UAV launches from Millerovo are accompanied by Su-34/Su-35 sorties for SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) missions.
Andriivka Status: Determine if the RF has made any significant gains within the Andriivka ruins or if the 22-day "Advent" fight remains purely positional.
Zatoka UAV Path: Monitor the trajectory of the Zatoka UAV to determine if it is targeting the bridge or seeking to bypass Odesa toward the Moldovan border.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY: RF is leveraging depth (Kursk/Orel) to bypass frontline AD and strike strategic targets. UAF is maintaining a "hedgehog" defense in the East while using high-precision drone strikes to degrade RF technical superiority.
WEATHER: No change; cold remains a force multiplier for strikes on the energy grid.
ENEMY INTENT: Saturate AD, identify energy vulnerabilities, and utilize disinfo (Kyiv "clashes") to disrupt UA internal cohesion.
