(19:40, Военкор Котенок, HIGH): Confirmation that Major General Fanil Sarvarov, Chief of the RF General Staff's Operational Training Department, is the 13th high-ranking commander killed. This indicates a significant disruption to the RF's tactical feedback and training loops.
(19:45, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM): Geolocation confirms active positional fighting north of Horlivka along the Kostiantynivka – Oleksandro-Kalynove line.
(20:02, РБК-Україна/FT, MEDIUM): Intelligence reports suggest RF generals are presenting a "winning war" narrative to Putin, likely distorting battlefield realities to the Kremlin.
(19:51, 20:05, Sinegubov/Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regional administrations have officially designated military support as the absolute priority for 2025 budgets, mirroring the Dnipropetrovsk model.
(19:40, РБК-Україна/NBC, MEDIUM): Reported internal friction between US figures Witkoff and Rubio regarding the specific details of a proposed peace framework for Ukraine.
(20:05, Alex Parker Returns, LOW):DISINFORMATION ALERT: Reports of the death of US tech figure Vince Zampella in California are assessed as fabricated to support domestic RF propaganda regarding "domestic analogues" to Western technology.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): Local administration (Sinegubov) confirms a pivot to total defense support (19:51). The situation in Vilcha remains critical following its earlier reported capture; UAF is likely reinforcing blocking positions to prevent a south-bound thrust toward Vovchansk.
Donbas (Toretsk/Horlivka): Fighting has expanded to the Kostiantynivka – Oleksandro-Kalynove vector (19:45). This suggests RF is attempting to widen the Toretsk salient to the north to threaten the H-20 highway. Urban combat in Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) remains at high intensity.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Crimea): Following the multi-domain strike on Sevastopol (19:26), BSF units are in a defensive posture. Zaporizhzhia OVA has prioritized regional funding for front-line fortifications and security (20:05).
Rear Areas (Moscow): The assassination of Maj. Gen. Sarvarov (19:40) has triggered a security crackdown; RF milbloggers are increasingly focused on "internal terrorism" narratives.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
C2 Vulnerability: The loss of Maj. Gen. Sarvarov (Operational Training) creates a specific deficit in the RF's ability to adapt training programs to counter UAF innovations (like FPV dominance). This is the 13th loss of its kind, suggesting a systemic failure in RF high-value target (HVT) protection.
Information Flow: If reports of "winning war" briefings to Putin (20:02) are accurate, the RF General Staff may be incentivized to launch high-risk, low-gain "prestige" assaults to maintain the illusion of momentum, particularly ahead of the Miami framework discussions.
Resource Mobilization: Volunteer groups like "BF Dva Mayora" continue to fill logistical gaps in RF equipment (19:50), indicating that despite state-level production, front-line units still rely heavily on crowd-funded workshops for drone components and specialized munitions.
Friendly activity (UA)
Force Sustainment: Regional administrations (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk) are now synchronized in diverting significant civilian budget portions to the UAF. This decentralized funding is critical for sustaining the "Active Defense" posture as international aid frameworks (Miami) are finalized.
Deep Strike Operations: UAF continues to leverage multi-domain assets (as seen in the Sevastopol and Lipetsk strikes) to disrupt RF sortie generation ahead of the expected massed missile attack.
Information environment / disinformation
Hybrid Narratives: RF-aligned channels are utilizing "celebrity death" disinformation (Zampella) to create a bizarre bridge to domestic policy (launching "Russian Call of Duty" analogues) and to foster anti-Western sentiment (20:05).
Strategic Friction: Reporting on US internal policy disagreements (Witkoff vs. Rubio) is being amplified by UA and RF sources alike to create uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the "Miami Framework" (19:40, 20:02).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will proceed with the massed missile strike using strategic aviation (Tu-95MS) and Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles (SLCM) from the Black Sea. Primary targets: Energy grid nodes and C2 hubs in Kyiv to "avenge" Gen. Sarvarov.
Tactical: Expect intensified mechanized probing near Oleksandro-Kalynove as RF seeks to exploit the seam between the Toretsk and Bakhmut sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sarvarov BDA: Confirm the method of liquidation (IED, small arms, or drone) to assess the capability of internal resistance/SOF cells in Moscow.
RF Tactical Air: Monitor for movement of Su-34 units to forward airfields in the Voronezh/Belgorod sectors, which would indicate immediate support for the northern (Vilcha) breach.
Peace Plan Specifics: Identify the "friction points" between the 20-point Miami Framework and the Witkoff/Rubio proposals to anticipate potential UA diplomatic shifts.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY: RF is attempting to convert tactical gains in Vilcha and Toretsk into an operational-level threat to the Northern and Eastern logistics hubs.
WEATHER: Severe cold (-13°C) will prioritize strikes on the heating/energy infrastructure over the next 12 hours.
ENEMY INTENT: Maintain the "winning" narrative for Putin through high-visibility missile strikes and continued attrition in Toretsk.
