(19:23, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Indications of Russian Federation (RF) strategic aviation preparation for a massed missile strike tonight; monitors report readiness for sorties.
(19:33, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirms the return of the Miami negotiating team; a 20-point framework and security guarantees have been drafted. Briefing from Umerov and Hnatov scheduled for 23 Dec 0600Z.
(19:26, Операция Z / Два майора, HIGH): UAF conducting a multi-domain attack on Sevastopol; Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) and Air Defense (AD) are currently engaged in "reflecting" the attack.
(19:31, Air Force UA, HIGH): Enemy UAV (Geran-type) detected in NW Chernihiv region moving toward Kyiv.
(19:29, Два майора, MEDIUM): RF introduces "Project Clean Sky," a specialized anti-drone cartridge/munition designed for small arms to counter UAF FPV dominance.
(19:11, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM): Correction issued on previous combat footage; visual evidence of urban destruction originates from Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), not Kostiantynivka, indicating heavy urban fighting in the Toretsk sector.
(19:30, Дніпропетровська ОДА, HIGH): Dnipropetrovsk region has allocated over 3.5 billion UAH in 2025 to support the UAF and security forces.
(19:30, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual BDA confirms damage to an electrical substation in Odesa following recent strikes; repair efforts are documented.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
Battlefield Geometry & Key Terrain:
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv): A new UAV vector has opened from NW Chernihiv (19:31). This suggests RF is bypassing standard eastern corridors to test AD density in the northern approaches to the capital.
Donbas (Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk): The clarification of footage (19:11) confirms that RF pressure is concentrated in the Toretsk urban center. The "fortress" status of Toretsk is being systematically degraded by RF heavy munitions.
Crimea (Sevastopol): The ongoing UAF strike (19:26) indicates a coordinated effort to suppress the Black Sea Fleet's strike capacity ahead of the anticipated RF massed missile launch.
Weather & Environmental Factors:
Severe Cold Snap: Temperatures in Moscow and rear-echelon RF staging areas are dropping to -13°C (19:07). While this supports soil stability for maneuver, it places extreme stress on logistics and personnel heating, which RF milbloggers admit is slowing volunteer collection efforts (19:09).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Strategic Aviation: Preparation of strategic bombers (Tu-95MS/Tu-160) suggests a transition from the "probing" phase (UAVs) to the "kinetic" phase (cruise missiles). Target sets likely include energy infrastructure (Odesa substation BDA confirms this priority) and C2 nodes in Kyiv.
Anti-Drone Adaptation: The launch of "Project Clean Sky" (19:29) reflects an RF tactical adaptation to UAF FPV superiority. If distributed widely, this could marginally increase the survivability of RF assault groups during the "final 100 meters" of an assault.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Volunteer Fatigue: Reports from RF paratrooper sources (19:09) indicate a slowdown in private fundraising and volunteer "slow collections." This suggests a potential saturation point in the Russian public’s ability to sustain supplemental military funding.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Strategic Diplomacy: The administration is fully pivoted toward the "Miami Framework" (19:33). The inclusion of General Hnatov in the briefing suggests that the 20-point framework has specific military-technical requirements and front-line stabilization conditions.
Active Defense (Deep Strike): UAF continues to demonstrate "offensive-defense" by targeting Sevastopol (19:26). This is likely a preemptive attempt to force RF Kalibr-capable vessels to maneuver or seek shelter, disrupting their role in the expected massed strike.
Resource Status:
Regional Funding: The 3.5bn UAH from Dnipropetrovsk (19:30) highlights the critical role of regional budgets in sustaining decentralized procurement for the UAF, particularly in the absence of centralized US aid packages (pending the Miami framework).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Economic Narratives: A split is appearing in international reporting; the FT reports RF confidence in their economy (19:22), while Finnish President Stubb claims the RF economy has "zero growth" and exhausted reserves (19:23). RF propaganda is aggressively mocking Stubb’s assessment to maintain domestic confidence.
Electoral Legitimacy: RF state media is pre-emptively attacking the legitimacy of any future Ukrainian elections by suggesting that Ukrainians living in Russia must be allowed to vote (19:24), a clear hybrid effort to undermine the sovereignty of the "Miami Framework" outcomes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Next 6-12h: RF will execute a massed missile strike tonight (22-23 Dec) utilizing strategic aviation and K-300P Bastion-P (from Crimea) to target energy infrastructure and the Kyiv governmental quarter.
Tactical: RF will intensify urban clearing operations in Toretsk, using the cover of the cold snap and night-vision capabilities.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Simultaneous Oreshnik/Strategic Launch: RF utilizes the strategic aviation sortie as a distraction to mask the launch of an "Oreshnik" ballistic missile from Belarus or Kapustin Yar, targeting a western logistical hub (Lviv/Rivne) to sever the GLOCs before the Miami framework can be implemented.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Sevastopol BDA: Immediate satellite or HUMINT confirmation of hits on BSF vessels or AD batteries in Sevastopol.
Miami Framework (20 Points): Identify the specific territorial vs. security trade-offs in the "20-point" document.
Anti-Drone Tech: Obtain technical specifications of the "Clean Sky" cartridge. Is it an electronic jammer or a kinetic (shotgun-style) round?
Strategic Aviation Count: Confirm the number of bombers currently airborne or on the tarmac with engines running (thermal signatures).
