(17:27, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Ukraine's Military Ombudsman, Reshetylova, confirmed that medical fitness criteria for military service will be tightened/revised due to acute personnel shortages.
(17:06, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF claims the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade is facing "encirclement" in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad), supported by footage of captured UAF personnel.
(17:10, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM): Video evidence circulated by RF sources claims the destruction of an M1A1 Abrams tank in the Pokrovsk sector.
(17:20, НгП раZVедка, MEDIUM): RF intelligence sources claim UAF is preparing massed UAV strikes against Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and the North Caucasus (Chechnya, Dagestan, Ossetia) during the pre-holiday period.
(17:11, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The Czech shell initiative’s future and next delivery schedules will reportedly be finalized on January 7, 2025.
(17:07, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): Following the liquidation of General Sarvarov, Russian State Duma members are publicly advising high-ranking military officials to personally inspect vehicle chassis for IEDs, indicating significant rear-area insecurity.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is characterized by high-intensity attrition in the Donbas and a shift in Ukrainian domestic policy to address force-generation constraints.
Battlefield Geometry & Terrain:
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) Sector: The RF is attempting to close a tactical pocket around Myrnohrad. The reported loss of Western MBTs (Abrams) suggests UAF is committing high-end reserves to stabilize this axis.
Zaporizhzhia Axis: Increased activity in the Stepnohirsk sector (17:18, Дневник Десантника). While an air alert for Zaporizhzhia city was cleared (17:29), a missile threat persists for the wider oblast.
Krasny Lyman/Kupiansk Axis: RF "Zapad" group and 3rd Army Corps are conducting high-volume MLRS (Grad) strikes to suppress UAF defensive lines (17:20, Colonelcassad; 17:32, WarGonzo).
Weather:
No significant changes; persistent cold impacts battery life for tactical UAVs and personnel endurance.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Tactical Course of Action: RF is prioritizing the envelopment of urban hubs (Myrnohrad) over frontal assaults to force UAF withdrawals.
C2 Vulnerability: The public advice for Russian generals to use mirrors for vehicle inspections (17:07, Alex Parker Returns) confirms that recent liquidations (Gen. Sarvarov) have significantly degraded the perceived security of the RF high command.
Information Warfare: RF MoD is aggressively utilizing POW testimonials (79th Brigade) to amplify narratives of "collapse" and "abandonment" by UAF leadership (17:06, MoD Russia).
Logistics & Sustainment:
Belarus continues to negotiate the quantity of "Oreshnik" ballistic systems to be transferred from Russia, likely as a coercive tool against NATO/Ukraine (17:15, РБК-Україна).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture & Readiness:
Force Generation: The revision of medical fitness standards (17:27, ЦАПЛІЄНКО) is a critical operational adaptation. It indicates that the UAF is prioritizing quantity of personnel to hold established lines, even at the cost of lower medical readiness among new recruits.
Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelensky emphasized that "worthy peace" depends on Congressional ratification of security guarantees and long-term financial support (17:07, Zelenskiy / Official).
Asset Losses: The claimed loss of an M1A1 Abrams near Pokrovsk (17:10) represents a degradation of mobile protected firepower in the sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Propaganda: A dual-track effort is underway: (1) highlighting UAF mobilization "desperation" and (2) manufacturing a narrative of a US-led maritime blockade of Venezuela (17:08, Два майора) to distract international audiences and frame the US as an aggressor.
UAF Resilience: Official messaging remains focused on international law and security guarantees, aiming to maintain domestic morale amid hardening mobilization policies.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
East: RF will increase pressure on the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk line, using captured personnel footage to induce local UAF retreats.
Strategic: A massed strike (missile/UAV) remains highly likely within 24-48 hours, synchronized with the cold snap and pre-holiday window.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Northern/Donbas Link-up: If RF captures Vilcha and Myrnohrad simultaneously, they may attempt a multi-corps offensive to bypass Vovchansk entirely, threatening the strategic depth of the Kharkiv-Donetsk seam.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dimitrov/Myrnohrad Status: Urgent requirement for GEOINT to verify the extent of the "encirclement" claimed by RF MoD.
M1A1 BDA: Confirm the operational status of the Abrams fleet in the Pokrovsk sector; determine if the reported loss was a total hull loss or repairable.
Mobilization Impact: Monitor social media and internal reporting for the impact of revised fitness standards on frontline unit cohesion.
Deep Strike Indicators: Monitor UAF UAV launch sites for signs of the "massed strikes" predicted by RF sources to preemptively manage escalatory rhetoric.
