(16:37, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): President Zelensky reiterated an urgent warning regarding a massed Russian missile and UAV strike imminent within the "nearest days."
(16:45, STERNENKO, HIGH):TECH MILESTONE. The GUR "Wild Hornets" (Dyki Shershni) unit successfully intercepted and destroyed a jet-powered Shahed loitering munition using an FPV interceptor drone.
(17:04, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, MEDIUM): RF sources claim Vilcha (Kharkiv sector) is "almost liberated," indicating continued consolidation of the northern breach.
(16:48, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): President Zelensky confirmed a critical shortage of interceptor drones, stating the bottleneck is industrial production capacity rather than funding.
(16:53, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Significant increase in robotic warfare integration documented near Kostyantynivka; footage shows ground-based UGVs and aerial drones operating in a coordinated multi-domain capacity.
(17:00, Воин DV, MEDIUM): RF forces conducted targeted artillery strikes on UAF positions in Huliaipole, confirming sustained high-intensity combat in the urban center.
(16:37, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Confirmed reports from Sumy Oblast indicate that RF forces are holding both civilians and military personnel captive in Hrabovske.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo is shifting toward a reliance on autonomous and robotic systems to compensate for personnel and conventional munition constraints.
Battlefield Geometry & Terrain:
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): The FLOT near Vilcha remains fluid, but RF consolidation is likely complete. The Hrabovske pocket is now characterized by a hostage/captive situation, complicating UAF kinetic responses.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk): The defense of Pokrovsk is being spearheaded by the 425th "Skelya" Regiment. In Kostyantynivka, the battlefield has transitioned into a "robot-vs-robot" environment, reducing direct infantry exposure.
Weather: Persistent fog continues to degrade standard ISR, but the GUR's successful intercept of a jet-Shahed indicates that high-speed, all-weather loitering munitions are now a primary RF tool.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Course of Action (COA): RF is preparing for a "prestige strike" or strategic bombardment of the energy grid. The deployment of jet-powered Shaheds suggests an attempt to bypass existing UAF air defense (AD) through higher transit speeds.
Tactical Adaptation: RF continues to utilize "military correspondents" and journalists as part of their forward ISR/propaganda apparatus; the death of a Lenta.ru correspondent (16:40) confirms their presence in high-risk tactical zones.
Psychological Operations: RF is aggressively pushing a narrative of internal Ukrainian political fracturing, specifically targeting the relationship between Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi, and Poroshenko (16:41).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture & Readiness:
Force Employment: The 425th Regiment (Skelya) is maintaining a high-readiness posture in the Pokrovsk sector.
Technological Edge: UAF is successfully scaling drone-on-drone interception (C-UAS), though the industrial output of these interceptors remains the primary strategic constraint.
Logistics: Significant energy infrastructure support has arrived via the European Commission/Lithuania (16:53), providing a critical buffer against the anticipated massed strike.
Internal Security: Allegations of a Russian passport held by the spouse of an SBU General (16:43) represent a potential counter-intelligence vulnerability that could impact C2 trust.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Propaganda: Coordinated efforts to frame Ukrainian peace initiatives as "dictatorial" (17:01) and to amplify rumors of a Zaluzhnyi presidential bid to destabilize the current administration.
Domestic Ukraine: Legislative focus has shifted toward "one-time" election laws for the post-war period (16:51), aimed at maintaining democratic legitimacy despite martial law.
Censorship: Russia is increasing internal information control, with reports of restricted access to YouTube content criticizing the military leadership (16:51).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Massed Combined Strike: Within 24-72 hours, a coordinated wave of jet-Shaheds and cruise missiles targeting energy nodes and C2 centers in Kyiv.
Consolidation in the North: RF will attempt to fully secure Vilcha and use it as a logistics hub for a deeper thrust toward Vovchansk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Breakthrough at Huliaipole: If RF artillery successfully suppresses UAF defenses in the center of Huliaipole, a mechanized breakthrough could threaten the southern flank of the entire Donetsk grouping.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Jet-Shahed Technical Specs: Need debris analysis from the downed jet-Shahed to determine speed, thermal signature, and guidance systems to update AD intercept parameters.
Hrabovske Captive Status: Require SIGINT or HUMINT on the exact number and location of captives in Hrabovske to plan potential hostage recovery operations.
SBU Integrity: Urgent vetting of the allegations regarding the SBU General’s wife; determine if this has led to a leak of operational plans for the Pokrovsk/Donetsk sectors.
Vilcha FLOT: Need high-resolution satellite imagery to verify if RF forces are digging in for long-term occupation or preparing for further maneuver south.
