(16:09, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH):STRATEGIC ALERT. President Zelensky has issued an urgent warning of a massed Russian missile/UAV strike expected in the "nearest days."
(16:12, Военкор Котенок, HIGH):CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE. Loitering munitions (Geran/Shahed) successfully struck the Port of Yuzhny (Pivdennyi) in Odesa Oblast, destroying approximately 30 logistics vehicles and damaging Allseeds Black Sea facilities.
(16:06, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH):KUPYANSK COUNTER-MANEUVER. UAF forces successfully cleared 500 meters within Kupyansk; enemy presence in the city is estimated at a localized pocket of 80–100 personnel.
(16:23, Шеф Hayabusa, MEDIUM):TACTICAL WEATHER DEGRADATION. Heavy fog in the Kherson sector has grounded FPV drone operations but is being exploited by RF forces to conduct infiltration attempts under increased artillery cover.
(16:21, Старше Эдды, MEDIUM):ZAPORIZHZHIA ESCALATION. Reports indicate high-intensity urban combat in the center of Huliaipole; RF claims to have neutralized a UAF counter-attack. (UNCONFIRMED/CONTESTED).
(16:17, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH):ECONOMIC ATTRITION. Urals crude oil prices have plummeted to $34/barrel following new US sanctions, significantly impacting RF revenue streams.
(16:12, STERNENKO, HIGH):TECH INNOVATION. The 3rd Assault Brigade documented the successful use of a ground-based UGV to hold a defensive position for 45 days, replacing traditional infantry manning.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity RF air campaign targeting maritime logistics (Odesa) and a localized UAF tactical success in the Kupyansk sector.
Battlefield Geometry & Terrain:
Northern/Kupyansk: The FLOT has shifted slightly in favor of UAF within the urban limits, compressing the RF foothold.
Southern/Zaporizhzhia: Engagement has moved into the built-up area of Huliaipole, increasing the complexity of urban maneuver.
Weather Factor: Heavy fog in the south (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia) is creating a "drone-blind" environment, favoring traditional infantry infiltration and tube artillery over precision loitering munitions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Course of Action (COA): RF is prioritizing the disruption of the "grain corridor" logistics, as evidenced by the strike on Port Yuzhny. The concentration of ~1100 troops in the Pokrovsk sector suggests a continued focus on the central Donbas axis.
C2 Activity: Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev (CMD Ground Forces) chaired a high-level Military Council meeting (16:21), likely synchronizing the "Christmas Strike" logistics and the management of newly formed Baltic Fleet Marine units.
Logistics & Sustainment: Evidence of "non-mechanized transport" (horses) being targeted in the south (16:17) suggests localized fuel or vehicle shortages, though heavy artillery fire remains sustained.
Force Generation: Reports of coercing conscripts into contracts via sleep/water deprivation (16:12, Sever.Realii) indicate persistent friction in maintaining volunteer recruitment rates.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture & Readiness:
Tactical Success: UAF has regained initiative in Kupyansk, reducing the enemy presence to a manageable pocket.
Force Multipliers: Successful deployment of defensive UGVs (3rd Assault Bde) demonstrates a transition toward autonomous perimeter defense to mitigate infantry shortages.
Resource Constraints: President Zelensky highlighted a deficit in anti-drone interceptors, noting that the bottleneck is technical/supply-based rather than financial (16:26).
Diplomatic Vector: The Ukrainian delegation is returning from the US (Florida) with reports of progress, likely regarding the replenishment of AD systems ahead of the predicted RF strike window.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Propaganda: Coordinated efforts to frame the Ukrainian administration as corrupt using skewed Western media citations (Operatsia Z, 16:10).
Internal RF Tensions: Dissident voices (Alex Parker Returns) are exploiting the Sarvarov assassination and domestic "extortion" scandals to criticize the FSB and the Kremlin’s failure to regulate domestic "frauds" (tele-evangelists/fortune tellers) while the economy suffers.
Political Stability: Confirmation that the Ukrainian MFA leadership will remain unchanged (16:11) aims to project stability during the critical transition period in US-Ukraine relations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Massed Strike: A multi-vector missile and Shahed strike within 48-72 hours targeting the energy grid and the remaining Odesa port infrastructure to exploit the current AD interceptor deficit.
Infiltration Surge: Continued RF ground probes in the Kherson sector under cover of fog, aiming to establish small bridgeheads on the right bank.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Huliaipole Breakthrough: If RF claims of "fighting in the center" are accurate, an operational breakthrough here could threaten the flank of the entire Zaporizhzhia defensive line, forcing a UAF withdrawal from secondary positions.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Huliaipole FLOT: Need GEOINT/Visual confirmation of the Forward Line of Own Troops in Huliaipole. Is the fight truly in the "center," or is this a psychological operation?
Interceptor Deficit: Identify specific technical requirements for "interceptor drones" mentioned by the President. Are these FPV-to-FPV platforms or high-altitude loitering interceptors?
Pokrovsk Concentration: Determine the composition of the ~1100 RF troops in the Pokrovsk sector. Are these elite assault units (VDV) or under-equipped "special contingents"?
Shahed Vector: Monitor the Shahed currently over Zhytomyr (16:29); determine if this is a solo scout or the vanguard of a larger wave targeting western logistics hubs.
