(15:13, Оперативний ЗСУ / ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH):POKROVSK COUNTER-MANEUVER. The 425th "Skelya" Regiment conducted a successful mechanized insertion in NW Pokrovsk, delivering infantry to the city entrance ("stela") and securing forward positions.
(15:27, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС / Юлія Кирієнко, HIGH):FORCE GENERATION. The 24th "Aidar" Battalion has officially completed its transition to a Regiment, signaling a significant expansion of elite assault infantry capacity.
(15:21, STERNENKO, HIGH):DEFENSIVE SUCCESS. The 93rd OMBr and "Phoenix" BAS successfully repelled a Russian mechanized assault in the Kostiantynivka direction using FPV drones.
(15:20, Укренерго / RBK, HIGH):GRID INSTABILITY. Nationwide hourly power outages and industrial power restrictions are confirmed for tomorrow, Dec 23, following 100% damage to thermal/hydro generation.
(15:17/15:19, Air Force, MEDIUM):UAV PENETRATION. An enemy UAV transited the Kyiv Reservoir (Western Chernihiv) and turned toward the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone; potential reconnaissance of sensitive infrastructure or alternate flight path to Kyiv.
(15:30, WarGonzo, MEDIUM):RF CIVIL DEFENSE. Russia has begun testing a "civilian air defense" warning network in Kursk Oblast, likely in response to increased UAF drone/missile penetration of the border region.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv / Sumy / Kharkiv)
Airspace Activity: A southern-bound UAV was tracked over the Kyiv Reservoir before diverting toward the Chernobyl zone (Air Force, 15:17). This indicates sophisticated waypoint navigation to avoid standard AD corridors.
Kupyansk Sector: Contested narrative. While RF sources claim capture, UAF sources report a limited RF presence of approximately 100 personnel, likely a reconnaissance-in-force or isolated bridgehead rather than full control (RBK-Ukraine, 15:26).
Eastern Axis (Donbas / Pokrovsk)
Pokrovsk (City Entrance): UAF 425 "Skelya" unit successfully executed a "mount-and-dismount" operation near the city stela (NW entrance). This confirms UAF maintains the ability to maneuver mechanized assets despite RF pressure (Оперативний ЗСУ, 15:13).
Kostiantynivka: RF mechanized assaults were effectively suppressed by integrated drone/anti-tank teams from the 93rd OMBr. This demonstrates continued RF reliance on armored thrusts despite reported vehicle shortages (STERNENKO, 15:21).
C2/Force Structure: The elevation of "Aidar" to a Regiment-level unit (15:27) suggests a strategic move to thicken defensive lines in the Donetsk sector with combat-hardened personnel.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson)
Air Threat: Shahed-type UAVs are currently inbound to Zaporizhzhia from the south (Air Force, 15:06).
Kherson: A high-speed aerial target (likely a ballistic or cruise missile) was reported inbound to Kherson City (Air Force, 15:20).
Civilian Infrastructure: Local authorities in Kryvyi Rih (Vilkul, 15:19) are attempting to resume administrative services (CNAP), though the broader energy crisis remains a primary constraint.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Internal Security: The first high treason charge against an RF serviceman (Anton Kuruu of Tuva) participating in the invasion suggests growing concern within the Russian MoD regarding internal dissent or intelligence leaks (Север.Реалии, 15:12).
Technological Posturing: RF sources are signaling a shift toward anti-satellite (ASAT) response capabilities, likely aimed at disrupting UAF's reliance on Western commercial satellite imagery and Starlink (ЦБСТ, 13:06).
Civilian Integration: The "civilian air defense" test in Kursk (15:30) indicates the RF is struggling to provide a comprehensive military AD umbrella for its border regions and is shifting the burden of early warning to civil structures.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Maneuver: The Skelya Regiment’s operation in Pokrovsk shows a shift from static defense to active tactical counter-maneuvers to disrupt RF consolidation.
Infrastructure Resilience: Despite the scheduled Dec 23 outages, the UAF C2 remains stable. President Zelensky emphasized the protection of "living" energy networks as a priority (15:05).
Information environment / disinformation
Censorship: Belarus has designated the ASTRA news outlet as "extremist," further closing the information space regarding RF/Belarusian troop movements (ASTRA, 15:09).
Administrative Stability: Internal rumors of a total overhaul of the Ukrainian Office of the President were partially debunked by confirmation that key advisors (e.g., Podolyak) remain in place (ASTRA, 15:32).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV and missile harassment of southern hubs (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia). RF will likely attempt to capitalize on the "Kupyansk capture" narrative with a localized mechanized push to prove control.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike on the Kyiv energy hub or the Chernobyl exclusion zone area, utilizing the UAV currently loitering in that sector for terminal guidance or BDA.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Chernobyl UAV Intent: Determine if the UAV in the Chernobyl zone is ISR-tasked for mapping "dead zones" in radar coverage for a follow-on missile strike.
Kupyansk Reality: Confirm the exact footprint of the ~100 RF personnel in Kupyansk. Are they supported by armor, or is this a "meat-wave" that successfully occupied a gray-zone ruin?
Kursk AD System: Identify the technical nature of the "civilian AD" system in Kursk. Is it a smartphone-based reporting app or an integrated sensor network?
