(15:02, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH):ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS. Official confirmation that 100% of Ukrainian power plants have sustained damage from Russian strikes. Restoration and protection efforts are ongoing to maintain grid viability.
(15:02, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH):AIR DEFENSE EVOLUTION. Visual confirmation of Ukrainian F-16 aircraft engaging and pursuing Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles, marking a significant milestone in multi-layered air defense integration.
(15:00, Воин DV, MEDIUM):TACTICAL SHIFT. Russian sources report the commencement of a "Battle for Huliaipole" (Zaporizhzhia sector), suggesting a localized offensive push or reconnaissance-in-force.
(15:03, MoD Russia, MEDIUM):EW SUPPRESSION. RF "Zapad" Group forces utilized Giatsint-S (2S5) self-propelled artillery to target and destroy concealed Ukrainian Electronic Warfare (EW) systems in the Krasny Liman direction.
(15:05, ТАСС, HIGH):RF INTERNAL C2. Mikhail Barschevsky, a long-serving government representative to the Constitutional and Supreme Courts, is retiring effective Dec 26. While administrative, it reflects a broader turnover in RF state structures.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy / Chernihiv / Kharkiv)
Status Deteriorated: Following the capture of Vilcha (ref: Daily Report), RF forces are attempting to consolidate gains south of the border.
Hrabovske Bridgehead: Consolidation continues. The use of civilians as human shields in local infrastructure (churches) remains a high-priority humanitarian and tactical concern (ref: 14:17 report).
Eastern Axis (Donbas / Pokrovsk / Krasny Liman)
Krasny Liman: RF is specifically prioritizing the degradation of UAF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities (MoD Russia, 15:03:10). This is likely a precursor to increased use of Orlan-10/130 ISR drones and Lancet loitering munitions in this sector.
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: Mechanized shortages persist for RF, though the refill of the 2652th GRAU Base (SAR Score 27.04) suggests an incoming wave of tube and rocket artillery ammunition will reach the front within 24-48 hours.
Personnel: UAF expansion of the 24th "Aidar" Battalion to a Regiment (ref: Daily Report) is currently underway to stabilize defensive lines.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson)
Huliaipole Sector: Increased combat activity reported (Воин DV, 15:00:07). This area has been relatively static; a Russian push here indicates an attempt to fix UAF reserves and prevent their redeployment to the deteriorating Northern Front.
Logistics: The M-15 Mayaki Bridge remains a primary RF target. UAF F-16 activity (15:02:42) is likely distributed to protect such critical GLOCs from cruise missile strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Suppression: The RF is moving away from purely "meat-wave" infantry assaults in some sectors (Krasny Liman) toward targeted artillery strikes on high-value enablers like EW systems (MoD Russia, 15:03:09).
C2 Fragility: The "friction gap" caused by the liquidation of General Sarvarov (14:45) is expected to manifest in poorly coordinated responses to UAF deep strikes over the next 12 hours.
Strategic Signaling: The deployment of "Oreshnik" complexes in Belarus (ref: Daily Report) serves as a persistent threat to Western Ukrainian logistics, timed to coincide with high-visibility tactical engagements.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Aviation: F-16s are now operationally active in the kinetic interception of cruise missiles (15:02:42). This reduces the burden on ground-based AD (Patriot/NASAMS) and allows for more flexible defense of the interior.
Infrastructure Resilience: Despite 100% of power plants being hit (15:02:00), the energy sector continues "active restoration," suggesting a shift toward decentralized or modular repair capabilities.
Information environment / disinformation
Engagement Distraction: RF-aligned Telegram channels (e.g., Старше Эдды, 15:00:02) are deploying high-value giveaways (iPhones, PS5) to maintain follower engagement and potentially mask or distract from the operational impact of UAF deep strikes (Lipetsk/Kuban).
Morale Operations: Ukrainian sources are successfully leveraging F-16 footage to provide a "Morale Boost" (DS Belief 0.11), countering the narrative of "Northern Flank Collapse."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will intensify artillery fire in the Krasny Liman and Huliaipole sectors. A retaliatory missile strike on energy targets in Kyiv or Odesa is highly probable following the Sarvarov assassination and the President’s admission of grid vulnerability.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF leverages the "Oreshnik" systems in Belarus for a high-speed strike against a Western Ukrainian hub (e.g., Rzeszów-border GLOCs) to disrupt the flow of Western munitions and signal a "no-go" zone for NATO support.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole Intent: Determine the size of the RF force engaged near Huliaipole. Is this the 5th Combined Arms Army or localized VDV units?
F-16 Distribution: Identify if F-16s are operating from Western-based airfields or utilizing highway strips within Ukraine to complicate RF targeting.
EW Attrition: Assess the impact of the Giatsint-S strikes in Krasny Liman on UAF's local counter-UAV umbrella.
Energy Resilience: Identify which specific power plants (if any) have achieved "protected status" via the physical fortifications mentioned in the Presidential address.
