(13:28, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS / GS UAF, HIGH): General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GS UAF) confirms successful strike on the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal (Krasnodar Krai, RF).
(13:23, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" is officially expanding to a Regiment, indicating a significant force-structure increase for this high-readiness unit.
(13:21, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces reportedly advanced west of Pleshcheyevka (Kostiantynivka sector). (UNCONFIRMED).
(13:23, ТАСС/Lukashenko, MEDIUM): Belarusian President Lukashenko announced the deployment of up to 10 "Oreshnik" ballistic missile complexes to Belarus.
(13:22, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH): New waves of Shahed loitering munitions detected entering Zaporizhzhia from the east.
(13:15, WarGonzo, HIGH): Final confirmation of the death of a former Lenta.ru journalist and current RF combatant (Nikolai Chigasov) via UAF drone strike.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis / Belarus
Strategic Threat Escalation: The announcement of "Oreshnik" systems in Belarus (ТАСС, 13:23) serves as a high-level deterrent against Western intervention. This aligns with a moderate-to-high Dempster-Shafer belief (0.238) regarding the deployment of these systems.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka)
Pokrovsk: UAF unit "SKELE 425" continues high-precision interdiction. Video evidence confirms "sniper" artillery and FPV strikes on RF personnel and armor (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 13:18).
Kostiantynivka Sector: RF claims of westward movement near Pleshcheyevka (Colonelcassad, 13:21) suggest a broadening of the southern pincer toward Kostiantynivka. If confirmed, this increases pressure on the H-20/H-32 logistics nodes.
Aidar Expansion: The transition of "Aidar" to a regiment (13:23) indicates a UAF focus on scaling assault capabilities in the East to match RF mass.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Zaporizhzhia: Loitering munition threat is currently active (13:22). Friendly forces (NGU "Typhoon") are actively conducting counter-drone and ISR operations in this sector (Запорізька ОВА, 13:33).
Maritime/Strategic Strike: The confirmed strike on Tamanneftegaz (13:28) disrupts a primary fuel export and logistics node for the Southern Group of Forces.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: RF is maintaining high-tempo drone and loitering munition attacks while leveraging the "Oreshnik" deployment for strategic signaling.
Logistics Degradation: The Taman terminal strike will likely force RF to shift fuel supply chains to inland depots, increasing the vulnerability of their Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) to FPV and HIMARS interdiction.
Technical Personnel Loss: The loss of Chigasov (13:15) highlights a vulnerability in specialized RF personnel (counter-UAV specialists) who are difficult to replace.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Modernization: UAF is prioritizing the expansion of successful assault units (Aidar) and the deployment of specialized drone crews (Typhoon, SKELE 425) to maintain a qualitative edge.
Occupied Territories (Digital): Launch of the bilingual "You are in Ukraine" website (13:13) targets residents in temporarily occupied territories (TOT) to maintain social links and counter RF information dominance.
Information environment / disinformation
Global Pivot (Diversionary): RF state-aligned channels (Archangel Spetsnaz, 13:06; Two Majors, 13:26) are heavily promoting a narrative of a US military blockade of Venezuela. This is assessed as a distraction effort to frame the US as an international aggressor and appeal to the "Global South."
Negotiation Narrative: Reports citing the Finnish President regarding the "last 5%" of a peace deal (13:20) are being amplified by pro-RF channels to create a perception of imminent UAF concessions.
Historical Revisionism: The RF Supreme Court ruling on rehabilitating anti-Soviet agitators (13:21, 13:31) appears aimed at domestic social cohesion or a pivot in internal ideological control.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains west of Pleshcheyevka under the cover of weather/visibility shifts (РБК-Україна, 13:30).
MDCOA: RF launches a retaliatory Iskander or cruise missile strike against UAF energy infrastructure or the Odesa logistics hub in response to the Taman terminal success.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pleshcheyevka Verification: Request satellite or tactical ISR confirmation of the RF foothold west of Pleshcheyevka.
Aidar Regiment Composition: Identify the equipment table (TO&E) for the expanded Aidar Regiment; specifically, if they are receiving Western IFVs (M2 Bradley/CV90).
Oreshnik Positioning: SIGINT/ELINT monitoring of Belarusian rail hubs to detect movement associated with heavy missile TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers).
