(12:56, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, HIGH): UAF successfully struck the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal (Krasnodar Krai, RF) and associated ammunition/UAV storage and launch facilities overnight.
(12:41, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF sources are disputing the GUR BDA of the Lipetsk airfield, claiming aircraft were not destroyed. (UNCONFIRMED/DISPUTED)
(12:57, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH): RF loitering munitions (Shahed/Geran) detected in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, specifically moving toward Pavlohrad.
(12:46, Mash на Донбассе, MEDIUM): Confirmation of the death of Nikolai Chigasov (Lenta.ru journalist and RF counter-UAV specialist) near Seversk due to a UAF drone strike.
(12:56, ASTRA, HIGH): Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has officially declined attendance at the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg, indicating widening diplomatic fissures within the RF-led security bloc.
(13:01, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): DPR advisor Yan Gagin has proposed cancelling New Year's celebrations to divert funds to the front, suggesting localized fiscal/logistical strain.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy)
Following the confirmed capture of Vilcha (69th Guards Motorized Rifle Division), RF forces are likely in a consolidation phase. There is no new data on further advances toward the Oskil reservoir, but the sector remains high-risk as RF standardizes its force composition from irregular to motorized units.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka)
Kostiantynivka: RF "Okhotnik" units remain active, successfully targeting UAF mobility assets (pickup truck) on the move (13:02). This reinforces the "drone blockade" narrative from the previous daily report.
Seversk: UAF continues to successfully target high-value RF technical personnel. The loss of a specialized counter-UAV "volunteer" (12:46) indicates UAF tactical superiority in drone-on-drone or drone-on-personnel engagements in this sector.
Pokrovsk: Russian "RV:MAX" propaganda channels are circulating "liberation" testimonials (12:43) from Krasnoarmiyske, aimed at domestic audiences to justify the high-attrition offensive.
Rear/Logistics (Strategic Strike)
The UAF strike on the Tamanneftegaz terminal (12:56) is a significant operational success. This facility is a critical node for the export of oil products and the logistics of the Black Sea Fleet. By simultaneously hitting ammunition depots and UAV launch sites in the same area, UAF has disrupted RF's southern strike complex and its economic sustainment.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical UAV Shifts: The redirection of loitering munitions toward Pavlohrad (12:57) suggests an intent to interdict the critical rail and road hub connecting Dnipro to the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts.
Capability Degradation: The proposal to divert holiday funds (13:01) and the loss of UAV technical specialists (12:46) point to an increasing reliance on "total war" mobilization of civilian resources and a vulnerability in specialized personnel.
Maskirovka: Ryabkov’s repeated assertions of "no attack on NATO" (12:36) are assessed as a strategic effort to minimize Western intervention while RF maximizes its "winter push."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Success: The Taman strike demonstrates sustained UAF capability to penetrate deep into Russian territory (Krasnodar) despite RF's layered air defense. This forces RF to reallocate AD assets from the front to protect high-value economic infrastructure.
Internal Security: The Dnipropetrovsk Prosecutor's Office dismantled a 50m UAH fraud scheme (13:00), maintaining the integrity of the rear-area financial system and public trust.
Civil Resilience: Civic events in Zaporizhzhia (12:36) continue despite the constant threat of ballistic and KAB strikes, preserving civilian morale.
Information environment / disinformation
BDA Contest: RF channels (Colonelcassad, 12:41) are actively attempting to "myth-bust" the Su-30 strikes in Lipetsk. This is a standard tactical counter-info operation to mask equipment losses.
Diplomatic Isolation: The absence of President Aliyev from the CIS summit (12:56) is being framed by independent sources as a major snub, undermining the RF's "regional leader" narrative.
Election Narrative: Ukrainian CEC reporting 33 million voters (12:36) is being monitored by RF sources; expect this data to be manipulated to claim "voter disenfranchisement" in occupied areas in future propaganda cycles.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued RF loitering munition strikes on Pavlohrad and Dnipro. Possible retaliatory cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in response to the Taman terminal attack.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the momentum from the Vilcha capture to launch an unconventional (horse-mounted/civilian vehicle) infiltration toward the H-26 highway to disrupt the Northern logistics spine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Taman BDA: Satellite imagery or local ELINT/SIGINT required to confirm the degree of damage to the Tamanneftegaz terminal and its impact on fuel exports vs. military fuel supply.
Pavlohrad Threat: Monitor the status of the Pavlohrad rail junction; if hit, identify alternative GLOCs for the Pokrovsk salient.
Lipetsk Verification: Independent verification (MAXAR/Planet) of the Su-30 status at Lipetsk to resolve the conflicting reports between UAF GUR and RF mil-bloggers.
