(12:13, MoD Russia, HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense officially confirmed the capture of Vilcha (Kharkiv region) by the 69th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, verifying earlier unconfirmed reports.
(12:09, РБК-Україна/GUR, HIGH): Ukrainian GUR updated the Lipetsk airfield BDA, confirming two Su-30 aircraft were successfully struck during the sabotage operation.
(12:09, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM): RF loitering munitions ("Geran") reportedly struck a freight train in the Korosten area (Zhytomyr Oblast). (UNCONFIRMED BDA).
(12:09-12:35, Multiple Sources, HIGH): A complete Thermal Power Plant (TPP) has been delivered from Lithuania to Ukraine, capable of supporting 1 million consumers.
(12:35, Север.Реалии, MEDIUM): WhatsApp traffic in Russia is being throttled by 70-80%, suggesting a widening state-led crackdown on encrypted communications.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy)
The RF "buffer zone" offensive has achieved a tactical objective with the confirmed seizure of Vilcha. This secures a foothold for RF forces to push toward the Oskil reservoir or attempt to outflank Vovchansk from the west. The presence of the 69th Guards Motorized Rifle Division indicates a shift from irregular "Akhmat" units to standard motorized formations in this sector.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk)
RF forces continue to exert pressure in the Krasnoarmiyske (Pokrovsk) direction. UAF is responding with high-efficiency asymmetric tactics; specifically, FPV drones equipped with physical interception devices (sticks/loops) are being used to down RF Mavic reconnaissance drones (12:33). This is a critical counter-ISR adaptation to the "drone blockade" noted in the previous daily report.
Rear/Logistics
Zhytomyr: The strike on a freight train in Korosten (12:09) represents a focused effort by RF to interdict Western aid and internal logistics moving toward the front.
Energy Infrastructure: The arrival of the Lithuanian TPP (12:13) is a major strategic boost, mitigating recent RF strikes on the energy grid and supporting civilian/industrial resilience in the face of winter.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Degradation: Reports of horse-mounted assaults (12:24), combined with previous reports of civilian vehicle use, suggest acute localized shortages of armored personnel carriers or a tactical adaptation to bypass UAF FPV drone screens that prioritize high-signature targets.
Communication Suppression: Throttling of WhatsApp (12:35) and proposed Duma bans on social media (12:21) indicate the RF is preparing its domestic information environment for further isolation or a potential new wave of mobilization, requiring tighter control over civilian narratives.
Strategic Posturing: Deputy FM Ryabkov’s claims that Russia "will not attack NATO" (12:15) are assessed as a diplomatic mask (maskirovka) intended to deter Western escalation while RF intensifies operations in Ukraine.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Deep Strike: The confirmation of two Su-30s hit in Lipetsk (12:09) directly degrades the RF's ability to maintain the high sortie rate of KAB (guided bomb) strikes currently harassing Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk sectors.
Anti-Drone Innovation: UAF is successfully evolving low-cost kinetic solutions to counter RF tactical ISR (12:33), preserving the security of UAF movements in the Pokrovsk salient.
Infrastructure Recovery: Coordination with the European Investment Bank (EIB) for Dnipropetrovsk reconstruction (12:15) ensures that the critical logistics hub of the East remains functional despite persistent bombardment.
Information environment / disinformation
Election Narrative: RF sources are amplifying Ukrainian parliamentary discussions regarding elections (12:11) to project an image of political instability in Kyiv and undermine the legitimacy of the current administration.
Peace Framing: Pro-Kremlin channels are leveraging Politico articles to frame Putin as the "key figure" in any settlement (12:31), attempting to seize the initiative in international peace discourse and force a "recognition of reality" on the ground.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will consolidate Vilcha and attempt to push reconnaissance elements toward the Vovchansk-Kharkiv highway. Continued "Geran" strikes on rail junctions in Western/Central Ukraine are likely tonight.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the capture of Vilcha to launch a larger-scale mechanized thrust toward the Oskil reservoir, attempting to sever the UAF group in the north from its southern logistics.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Korosten BDA: Confirmation of the cargo type on the struck train in Korosten. If military aid/fuel, identify impact on frontline supply.
Horse-Mounted Tactic: Determine if the 92nd Bde report is an isolated incident or if RF is officially standing up "cavalry" reconnaissance units to counter electronic warfare/FPV saturation.
Vilcha Perimeter: Identify the current UAF defensive line south of Vilcha and the status of the bridge/crossing points in that sector.
