(11:41, Operativno ZSU/GUR, MEDIUM): Sabotage operation at an airfield near Lipetsk (RF) reportedly resulted in the damage/destruction of two Su-30 fighter aircraft.
(11:41-11:53, UA Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): High-intensity KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes targeted Zaporizhzhia city and surrounding district; multiple salvos reported.
(12:02, Rybar/Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): RF forces claim the capture of Vilcha (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating an expansion of the offensive along the northern border toward the Burlyk axis.
(12:03, RBC-UA, HIGH): European Union officially extended economic sanctions against the Russian Federation through mid-2026.
(11:53, UA Air Force, HIGH): Enemy strike UAV detected over Chernihiv, maintaining a southern heading toward the Kyiv/central corridor.
(11:38, RBC-UA, MEDIUM): President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, states that 95% of a peace agreement is "ready," but the final 5% remains the most difficult.
(11:41, Operatsiya Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): RF sources circulating claims by US Senator J.D. Vance that UA negotiators privately acknowledge the "inevitability" of losing Donbas. Assessed as coordinated psychological operation (PSYOP).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Northern Border: The situation is deteriorating. Following the loss of Hrabovske (Daily Report), RF forces have reportedly seized Vilcha (12:02). This suggests a widening of the RF "buffer zone" offensive, likely intended to further stretch UAF reserves and threaten logistics near Vovchansk.
Zaporizhzhia Axis:CRITICAL. The city is under heavy aerial bombardment. Repeated KAB launches (11:41, 11:45) indicate a concerted effort to suppress the regional logistics hub, coinciding with house-to-house fighting in Huliaipole (Previous Sitrep).
Donetsk (Dobropillya Salient): Active operations confirmed by RF combat footage (12:02). The "Dobropillya salient" is emerging as a focal point for RF tactical aviation and ground pressure.
Chernihiv/Northern Axis: Persistent UAV penetration. One unit is currently transiting south from Chernihiv (11:53), potentially a Gerber-class decoy or Shahed-136.
RF Rear (Lipetsk): Successful GUR-led sabotage on Su-30 platforms demonstrates continued UAF capability to degrade RF tactical aviation at the source, potentially mitigating KAB sortie rates in the mid-term.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: RF is heavily reliant on KAB strikes to compensate for slowed ground advances in urban centers like Huliaipole. The focus on Zaporizhzhia city suggests an intent to interdict the flow of reserves to the southern front.
Northern Expansion: The seizure of Vilcha confirms the RF is not merely probing but is actively seizing terrain in the northern border regions to create a persistent tactical dilemma for UA High Command.
Sustainment: While EU sanctions are extended (12:03), the RF continues to leverage its natural resource narrative (11:58) to maintain domestic morale and offset the "shadow fleet" disruptions noted in the daily report.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Warfare: The Lipetsk sabotage (11:41) highlights a shift toward high-impact, low-cost deep-rear operations. Targeting Su-30s directly impacts the RF's ability to provide Close Air Support (CAS) and launch KABs.
Air Defense: UA AD and early warning (Vanek/Air Force) remain highly responsive in the Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv sectors, though KAB saturation remains a significant challenge.
Strategic Policy: UA State Tax Service (DPS) is moving toward increased financial oversight of "risky individuals" (11:54), likely a measure to tighten internal security and counter-intelligence against RF-funded actors.
Information environment / disinformation
"The 5% Hurdle": Finnish President Stubb's comments are being amplified; however, the "final 5%" likely includes non-negotiable UA sovereignty issues (territorial integrity, NATO path).
Defeatist Narrative: The J.D. Vance "private talks" claim (11:41) is a classic RF active measure designed to undermine UA domestic morale and create friction between Kyiv and Washington.
Internal RF PR: Moscow's use of emergency services for holiday-themed PR (11:50) contrasts with their intensification of strikes on UA civilian hubs, attempting to project "normalcy" to their domestic audience.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia to facilitate a breakthrough in Huliaipole. In the North, expect RF to consolidate positions in Vilcha and attempt further shallow penetrations toward the Oskil reservoir or Vovchansk flanks.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike (Kalibr/Iskander) targeting UA power infrastructure in the central region, timed with the Shahed/UAV transit from Chernihiv to overwhelm AD.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Lipetsk BDA: Urgent requirement for satellite imagery (GEOINT) to confirm the extent of damage to the two Su-30s at Lipetsk airfield.
Vilcha Status: Ground-level verification of Vilcha's status; determine if UAF has established a new defensive line south of the settlement.
Zaporizhzhia Damage Assessment: Identify specific targets of the 11:41-11:53 KAB strikes—specifically if they impacted rail or energy infrastructure.
