(02:45, Air Force, HIGH): A group of loitering munitions (UAVs) in northern Kyiv Oblast has shifted vector toward Ivankiv.
(03:02, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Confirmed damage to two piers and two vessels in Krasnodar Krai (RF) following an attack (likely UAF asymmetric strike).
(02:50, НгП раZVедка, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Cryptic report suggests follow-on kinetic activity or re-strikes in the Kryvyi Rih area ("bending it back").
(02:43, TASS, LOW/INFO-OP): Russian state media disseminating a high-production surrender narrative involving a UAF soldier and his Russian brother.
(03:01, TASS, LOW/DISINFO): Unsubstantiated claims by RF spokesperson Marochko regarding ~4,300 UAF casualties in the LNR sector over the past week.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Ivankiv):
The UAV threat identified in the previous sitrep has progressed deeper into Kyiv Oblast. The specific heading toward Ivankiv (02:45) is significant. Ivankiv serves as a critical node for ground lines of communication (GLOCs) toward the exclusion zone and northern Kyiv defenses. This maneuver suggests the enemy is targeting logistics hubs or attempting to bypass the dense AD concentration immediately surrounding Kyiv city by hitting perimeter towns.
Central/Eastern Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/LNR):
The situation in Kryvyi Rih remains opaque but active. The previous report of a strike ("Straightened Kryvyi Rih") followed by the 02:50 message ("bending it back") suggests a "double-tap" or a multi-wave missile/drone strike intended to disrupt emergency responses. In the LNR sector, RF sources (Marochko) are inflating casualty figures, likely to mask their own attritional losses or to support a narrative of UAF collapse in the east (03:01).
Southern Sector / Black Sea (Krasnodar Krai):
Ukrainian deep-strike capabilities have successfully engaged maritime infrastructure in the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai. The damage to two piers and two vessels (03:02) represents a tactical success in degrading RF littoral logistics and potentially disrupting the "shadow fleet" or local ferry/supply operations used to bypass the Kerch Bridge.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Deep Strike Counter-Response: The RF is maintaining its UAV pressure on Kyiv and the industrial heartland (Kryvyi Rih) while concurrently scaling up its psychological operations.
Loitering Munition Tactics: The shift toward Ivankiv indicates a tactical adaptation, possibly searching for gaps in the Mobile Fire Group (MFG) coverage between Chernihiv and Kyiv.
Logistics Degradation: The RF is likely concerned about the UAF strike in Krasnodar, as pier damage directly impacts their ability to sustain naval assets outside of the main Sevastopol/Novorossiysk hubs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate "deep reach" into RF territory, specifically targeting maritime logistics in Krasnodar to offset RF pressure on the M-15 and other southern GLOCs.
Air Defense: UAF Air Command "Center" is actively tracking and vectored against the Ivankiv-bound UAV group.
Information environment / disinformation
Surrender Narrative: The Moskalkova/TASS video (02:43) is a classic "family-oriented" psychological operation (PSYOP) designed to erode UAF morale by emphasizing shared heritage and the "safety" of Russian captivity. This is likely timed to coincide with high-attrition battles in the East.
Statistical Inflation: The claim of 4,300 casualties (03:01) is assessed as HIGHLY UNLIKELY and constitutes a "noise" operation to overwhelm analytical focus and demoralize the domestic Ukrainian population.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV probing of Kyiv’s northwestern perimeter (Ivankiv) and potential missile/drone follow-ups in the Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia industrial axis.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF may utilize the diversion caused by the Krasnodar strike to launch a high-speed ballistic attack on Odesa’s port infrastructure or the M-15 bridge, which was highlighted as a priority target in the previous 24h cycle.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kryvyi Rih BDA: Urgent requirement for satellite or ground-level verification of impacts in Kryvyi Rih to determine if industrial or C2 nodes were compromised.
Krasnodar Strike Platform: Identify if the strike on the Krasnodar piers was conducted via USVs (uncrewed surface vessels) or long-range UAVs; this will dictate RF naval defensive shifts.
Ivankiv Vector: Determine if the UAVs heading for Ivankiv are "Gerber" decoys or "Shahed" strike variants.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
Tactical (AD): Shift MFG (Mobile Fire Group) assets to the Ivankiv-Kyiv corridor immediately. The 02:45 report suggests an attempt to exploit the northern approach.
Operational (Security): Increase security and EW masking around industrial sites in Kryvyi Rih. The "bending it back" terminology (02:50) strongly suggests the enemy believes they have found a vulnerable or under-protected gap in the local AD umbrella.
Counter-PsyOps: Publicly debunk the Marochko casualty claims (03:01) via official General Staff channels to maintain troop morale, framing the inflated numbers as a sign of RF desperation following the Krasnodar maritime losses.
