Situation Update (2025-12-22 02:35 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- (02:06, Air Force, HIGH): UAV group identified in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, transiting along the Line of Contact (LOC) toward Nikopol.
- (02:07, НгП раZVедка, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Report of kinetic activity/impact in Kryvyi Rih (slang "Straightened Kryvyi Rih").
- (02:11, Air Force, HIGH): New wave of loitering munitions launched from the Black Sea toward Odesa Oblast, re-activating the southern threat.
- (02:25, Air Force, HIGH): UAVs previously in Chernihiv have crossed into Kyiv Oblast, maintaining a southern/southwestern heading.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
The threat vector identified at 01:56 has progressed. RF loitering munitions have transitioned from the "Belarusian corridor" in Chernihiv into Kyiv Oblast airspace (02:25). This trajectory places the Kyiv Reservoir, northern power substations, and the Slavutych energy hub under immediate threat. The use of the border-hugging flight path remains a deliberate tactic to complicate interception by Ukrainian Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs).
Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv):
The sector has regressed to "Active Threat" status. Following a brief period of neutralization (01:42), a new group of UAVs was detected inbound from the Black Sea at 02:11. This suggests a staggered attack pattern designed to deplete AD magazines and target emergency responders or logistical nodes (M-15 highway) during the post-strike recovery phase.
Central/Eastern Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia):
A complex air situation is developing. The 02:06 UAV group in Zaporizhzhia is utilizing the frontline as a masking corridor to approach Nikopol, likely targeting industrial infrastructure or monitoring movement across the Dnipro. Concurrently, an unconfirmed report (02:07) suggests a strike on Kryvyi Rih. If confirmed, this indicates a coordinated effort to suppress the Kryvyi Rih-Nikopol-Zaporizhzhia industrial triangle.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Multi-Vector Saturation: The RF is currently managing at least three distinct UAV vectors (Kyiv, Nikopol, Odesa) simultaneously. This is a deliberate attempt to saturate the national C2 and prevent the shifting of AD assets between regions.
- Tactical Masking: Moving UAVs along the "Line of Battle Contact" in Zaporizhzhia (02:06) suggests the enemy is utilizing local Electronic Warfare (EW) or high-clutter environments to mask the drones' radar signatures from rear-area AD arrays.
- Persistent Southern Pressure: The renewal of the Odesa threat from the sea (02:11) confirms that the RF is prioritizing the disruption of the recently reopened M-15 GLOC (Ground Line of Communication) and the Odesa port cluster.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Command "Center" and "South" are engaged. MFGs are likely being vectored to the northern Kyiv Oblast border and the Odesa coastline.
- Damage Assessment: Units in Kryvyi Rih are likely conducting Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) following the 02:07 report, though no official confirmation of impacts has been released.
Information environment / disinformation
- Kinetic Signaling: The cryptic reporting from RF-linked channels ("Straightened Kryvyi Rih") is often used to signal successful strikes before visual evidence emerges, serving as psychological pressure on local populations.
- Visual Evidence: Pro-Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 02:05) continue to reference "intelligence summaries" based on unverified video evidence (e.g., bunker assaults), likely to distract from the lack of significant territorial gains on the ground.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): UAV impacts in the Kyiv suburbs and Nikopol industrial zones within the next 45–90 minutes. Staggered Shahed arrivals in Odesa will likely continue until dawn to disrupt morning logistics on the M-15.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The "Kryvyi Rih" report may involve a high-speed ballistic or Iskander-M strike that occurred under the cover of the UAV wave, intended to decapitate regional C2 or logistics hubs while AD is focused on loitering munitions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Kryvyi Rih Impact Verification: Urgent need to confirm the nature of the 02:07 report. Was this a ballistic strike, a drone impact, or a successful interception?
- UAV Flight Profiles: Determine if the Zaporizhzhia UAV group (02:06) is utilizing new low-altitude "terrain masking" techniques along the Dnipro riverbanks.
- M-15 Status: Monitor the Mayaki Bridge area specifically for targeted drone or missile strikes as the new Odesa wave approaches.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
- Tactical (AD): Prioritize the defense of Nikopol power and water infrastructure. The use of the LOC for transit (02:06) suggests these drones may be loitering for high-value opportunistic targets rather than fixed coordinates.
- Operational (Logistics): TEMPORARY STAND-DOWN ON M-15. Given the new 02:11 UAV wave from the Black Sea, all heavy freight movement on the Odesa-Reni highway should be paused and vehicles moved to hardened shelters/dispersed positions until the "Clear" signal is issued for Odesa Oblast.
- Civil Defense: Issue immediate "Take Cover" warnings for Slavutych and the northern Kyiv outskirts, as the drones from Chernihiv (02:25) are on a direct heading for these high-sensitivity nodes.
