(22:02, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New UAV threat detected in Northern Kyiv Oblast on a western vector toward Zhytomyr Oblast. This indicates a widening of the aerial corridor beyond the previously reported Slavutych/Chernihiv axis.
(21:41, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAV activity confirmed in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving toward Shakhtarske. This suggests a multi-directional probe of the central Ukrainian AD grid.
(21:38, Tsaplienko/ISW, MEDIUM): Internal Russian military assessments indicate RF command has committed to sustaining the Kupyansk offensive despite high losses, reportedly due to political pressure from Moscow.
(22:02, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF sources released visual confirmation (POW footage) of their presence in Hrabovske (Sumy Oblast), confirming the consolidation of the bridgehead reported earlier today.
(21:47, Slivnoy Kapriz, MEDIUM): New combat activity or positioning confirmed on the Konstantinovka-Pleshcheevka axis (Donetsk), indicating an expansion of the RF "drone blockade" or ground probes south of the Kostiantynivka hub.
(21:55, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Estonian authorities detained a 60-year-old suspect related to the Tallinn shopping center explosion (Dec 20). This remains a critical indicator of hybrid warfare/sabotage in the NATO rear.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kupyansk Axis):
The situation in Sumy has transitioned from a breach to a consolidation phase for RF forces. Visual evidence of UAF POWs in Hrabovske (22:02) indicates the village is likely under full RF control. In the Kupyansk sector, RF generals appear to be doubling down on offensive operations (21:38) despite previous assessments suggesting a potential culminating point. This suggests a "fixed-at-all-costs" tactical approach.
Central/Eastern Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk Axis):
The detection of UAVs heading toward Shakhtarske (21:41) marks an escalation in the threat to the Dnipropetrovsk logistical rear. Simultaneously, the Konstantinovka-Pleshcheevka axis is seeing increased RF activity (21:47), likely an attempt to bypass established UAF defenses in Kostiantynivka via a flanking maneuver to the southwest.
Northern Corridor (Kyiv/Zhytomyr Axis):
The flight path of UAVs from northern Kyiv toward Zhytomyr (22:02) suggests a deep-penetration ISR or strike mission targeting energy infrastructure or military transit nodes in Western Ukraine, potentially bypassing the more saturated AD zones around Kyiv city.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Operational Intent: RF high command’s persistence in Kupyansk (21:38) suggests they prioritize the symbolic and logistical capture of the rail hub over personnel conservation.
Hybrid Tactics: The Tallinn incident (21:55) and the abduction of civilians in Sumy (previous report) indicate a dual-track strategy: conventional pressure on the front and "gray zone" sabotage/terror in the rear to distract international partners.
Psychological Operations: Rapid release of POW footage from Hrabovske (22:02) is being used to demoralize UAF units in the Sumy sector and exaggerate the scale of the RF "buffer zone" expansion.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF Air Force is currently managing a complex, three-sector aerial threat (Kyiv/Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa/Donbas).
Counter-Drone Operations: UAF combat drone units continue to inflict "heavy consequences" (21:48) on RF frontline assets, utilizing FPV strikes to mitigate the lack of heavy armor in certain sectors (as seen in Pokrovsk earlier).
Information environment / disinformation
RF Domestic Messaging: Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting upcoming national holidays (21:47), likely to project a "business as usual" atmosphere to the domestic public despite the reported internal military friction regarding Kupyansk.
Sabotage Attribution: Monitoring is required to see if RF channels attempt to frame the Tallinn explosion as a "false flag" or "internal Estonian unrest" to deflect from hybrid warfare accusations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation strikes across the Zhytomyr-Kyiv-Dnipropetrovsk arc to identify gaps in AD. RF forces will likely attempt a night assault on the Pleshcheevka outskirts to tighten the southern pincer on Kostiantynivka.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike targeting the M-15 Mayaki Bridge (South) and the Kupyansk rail junction (East) simultaneously, exploiting the "holiday" window in RF domestic logistics to surge ammunition to the front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Tallinn Connection: Determine if the 60-year-old suspect in Estonia has links to RF intelligence services (GRU/FSB) or "Shadow Fleet" logistics.
Kupyansk Force Composition: Identify if RF generals are moving reserves from the Vuhledar or Zaporizhzhia sectors to sustain the Kupyansk push.
UAV Technical Specs: Confirm if the UAVs on the Zhytomyr vector are using the new "Gerber" camera-equipped variants for live ISR.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
Air Defense (North-West): Alert Air Command "West" of the UAV vector moving toward Zhytomyr; reposition mobile fire groups to intercept before drones reach critical infrastructure nodes.
Tactical (Sumy Sector): Counter the POW propaganda by releasing footage of successful drone strikes in the Hrabovske area to demonstrate that RF consolidation is being contested.
Logistics (Donetsk): Reinforce the Kostiantynivka-Pleshcheevka GLOC. If Pleshcheevka falls, the southern supply route to the Kostiantynivka garrison becomes untenable.
