(21:31, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian forces have deployed NRTC "Kurier" Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) with the 11th OGDSHBr (Airborne Assault Brigade). This confirms the operational integration of combat/logistics robotics into elite RF units.
(21:11, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new UAV vector has been detected in Chernihiv Oblast moving toward/past Slavutych from the north. This expands the aerial threat to the North-Central corridor near the Kyiv/Chernihiv border.
(21:32, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAV swarm from Kharkiv (Barvinkove) has successfully transitioned into Donetsk Oblast, maintaining a direct vector toward Slavyansk.
(21:23, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new wave of loitering munitions has been launched from the Black Sea targeting Odesa, indicating a multi-vector "star-burst" attack pattern.
(21:19, Reuters/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UK PM Starmer and US President-elect Trump held a phone call specifically to discuss "peace initiatives" for Ukraine, signaling a shift in the diplomatic tempo.
(21:23, RV/BILD, MEDIUM): NATO Secretary General (Rutte) reportedly signaled European willingness to deploy troops to Ukraine to enforce a potential peace agreement, a statement currently being heavily weaponized in RF information channels.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Chernihiv/Slavutych Axis):
A new aerial threat has materialized toward Slavutych (21:11). While Slavutych is a satellite city for the Chornobyl zone, its proximity to the Kyiv-Chernihiv logistical spine makes it a critical node. This move likely serves as a "fix" to prevent UAF AD assets from shifting east to reinforce the Donbas.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Slavyansk Axis):
The RF "enveloping" maneuver of Slavyansk is progressing from the air. UAVs are now confirmed moving from Barvinkove (Kharkiv) into the Slavyansk approach (21:32). This confirms the predictive analysis from the previous sitrep that Barvinkove was a transit node for a larger strike on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk hub. The deployment of NRTC "Kurier" UGVs (21:31) suggests the RF may be preparing for high-risk, "manpower-light" ground probes in this sector to test UAF forward defenses.
Southern Sector (Odesa):
Renewed maritime-launched UAV threat (21:23). This represents the third distinct wave in the last 6 hours, likely intended to exhaust Odesa's AD interceptor stocks before a potential ballistic missile follow-up.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technical Adaptation: The use of tracked UGVs (Kurier) by the 11th OGDSHBr indicates a shift toward robotized assault tactics. These units are likely being used for casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) or ammunition delivery in high-threat FPV zones, or as mobile firing points to suppress UAF trenches without risking infantry.
Tactical Intent: The coordination of UAVs in the North (Slavutych) and East (Slavyansk) suggests a synchronized effort to stress the national AD grid simultaneously.
Information Operations: RF military bloggers are using the "European troops" narrative (21:23) to frame any potential peace settlement as a "NATO occupation," likely to prepare the RF domestic audience for continued hostilities.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Aerial Defense: UAF Air Force remains the primary operational agent, maintaining continuous tracking of multi-sector UAV swarms. Mobile fire groups are currently being repositioned to the Slavyansk-Barvinkove axis.
Strategic Resilience: Despite the diplomatic churn (Starmer-Trump call), frontline morale remains focused on tactical sustainment (e.g., Sternenko's "rusorez" fundraising, 21:22).
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic "Wedge" Operations: RF sources are amplifying the Starmer-Trump call to suggest a "behind-the-scenes" deal is being made without Kyiv’s full participation.
Targeted Threat: A specific threat from "Kotenok" (21:06) toward President Zelenskyy (UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE) aligns with recent RF efforts to increase psychological pressure on Ukrainian leadership during diplomatic transitions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation over Odesa and Slavyansk will be followed by a combined missile strike targeting the Slavyansk rail bridge or Odesa energy infrastructure between 0200Z and 0400Z.
MDCOA: RF 11th OGDSHBr utilizes UGV-supported assault groups to attempt a breakthrough in the Bakhmut-Slavyansk gray zone, capitalizing on the "drone blockade" reported in earlier sitreps.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
UGV Capabilities: Need technical SIGINT or BDA on the "Kurier" UGVs. Are they being remotely piloted via fiber-optic (jam-resistant) or standard radio link?
Slavutych Vector: Determine if the UAV moving toward Slavutych is an ISR Gerber drone (mapping AD) or a Shahed (strike).
NATO Troop Narrative: Monitor European MOD official channels for clarification on the "troops to Ukraine" statement to counter RF "NATO occupation" propaganda.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
EW Hardening: Deploy localized EW "bubbles" to sectors where the 11th OGDSHBr is active to disrupt UGV control frequencies.
AD Conservation: Advise Odesa AD commands to prioritize kinetic interception (Gepard/ZU-23) for maritime UAVs to conserve high-altitude interceptors for potential ballistic follow-ups.
Counter-Robot Tactics: Issue tactical guidance to frontline units on the use of heavy anti-tank mines or FPV "dive-bombers" to neutralize RF UGVs, which have different thermal and movement signatures than standard infantry.
