Situation Update (212105Z DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- (20:42, Operativno ZSU/ASTRA, HIGH): UAF long-range UAVs successfully struck an oil pipeline in Krasnodar Krai (RF); local authorities confirm a fire. This marks a successful penetration of RF rear-area AD during a mass reciprocal strike.
- (20:42–21:03, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Large-scale UAV swarm expanding across Kharkiv Oblast, tracking toward critical nodes: Borova, Balakliia, Barvinkove, and Savyntsi. This suggests a shift from border probing to deep interdiction of Donbas-bound logistics.
- (20:56, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New wave of UAVs detected on approach to Odesa; residents advised to seek shelter.
- (20:37, BELPOL/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports of an ammunition production plant under construction in Belarus specifically for RF supply; indicates long-term strategic integration and sustainment planning.
- (20:37, MOD RF, MEDIUM): RF claims 35 UAF drones intercepted over 11 regions in a 3.5-hour window, confirming the scale of the ongoing UAF reciprocal air campaign.
- (20:48, RBK-UA, HIGH): Kremlin officially stated that current peace proposals from the US, EU, and Ukraine are "categorically unsuitable," signaling a hardening of the RF diplomatic position.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv/Izium Axis):
The threat has evolved from localized border incursions (Sotnytskyi Kozachok) to a comprehensive aerial interdiction campaign. UAVs are currently tracking toward Barvinkove and Balakliia (21:03). These locations are vital for the UAF's ability to shift reserves between the Kharkiv and Donetsk fronts. RF milbloggers (Kotenok, 20:57) are increasingly discussing the "enveloping" of Slavyansk, suggesting the current UAV vectors are intended to isolate the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Tactical media from the 5th Kyiv OSHBr (21:03) confirms continued high-intensity drone-led engagements against RF infantry. Despite RF claims of progress, UAF tactical units are maintaining high lethality in "last-mile" defense. However, the concentration of RF air assets over the rear (Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv) is complicating sustainment.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Krasnodar):
Odesa is under renewed threat (20:56). Simultaneously, the UAF has successfully projected power into the RF rear, hitting energy infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai (20:42). This deep strike serves as a functional "asymmetric response" to RF pressure on the Odesa oil reservoirs reported earlier today.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Strategic Sustainment: The development of ammo production in Belarus (20:37) suggests the RF is moving toward a decentralized defense industrial base to mitigate the impact of strikes on domestic RU facilities.
- Psychological Operations: RF "military correspondents" are broadcasting intensified PsyOps (20:50) aimed at "moral decomposition" of UAF personnel. This is likely timed with the Kremlin’s hardline rejection of peace talks to project a sense of inevitability.
- Course of Action: RF is using UAV swarms to map UAF AD positions in the Kharkiv-Izium corridor ahead of potential localized mechanized pushes toward the Odesa-Kyiv-Kharkiv rail links.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Deep Strike Capability: UAF remains capable of complex, multi-vector drone operations into the RF interior (35+ drones, 11 regions). The impact on the Krasnodar pipeline demonstrates refined targeting of economic/logistics infrastructure.
- Tactical Resilience: High-quality BDA footage from the 5th OSHBr (21:03) indicates that despite logistical pressure, frontline units retain operational capability and high morale.
- Civil Defense: In Kryvyi Rih, local defense councils are doubling shelter capacity (20:41), anticipating a prolonged winter campaign of long-range strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
- Weaponization of US Domestic Politics: RF sources (Russkaya Vesna, 20:41) are heavily amplifying specific quotes from US politicians regarding aid cuts. This is a deliberate "wedge" campaign designed to foster a sense of abandonment among UAF defenders.
- Strategic Threat Narrative: NATO Secretary General Rutte’s warning regarding China-Russia synchronization (20:48) is being used in the UA domestic space to emphasize the global nature of the conflict and maintain international urgency.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation over Barvinkove and Balakliia to pin UAF mobile fire groups, followed by a localized missile strike on rail infrastructure.
- MDCOA: RF "Zapad" group initiates a ground push from the Bryansk/Chernihiv axis (highlighted by Kotenok, 21:05) to capitalize on the distracted AD and overstretched border guards.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Krasnodar BDA: Satellite or SIGINT confirmation of the extent of damage to the pipeline fire. Is the flow to the Novorossiysk terminal affected?
- Belarus Plant: Precise coordinates and construction status of the reported ammo factory for targeting consideration.
- Barvinkove AD: Assessment of AD coverage over the Barvinkove rail junction following the 2100Z UAV swarm.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
- Interdiction of ISR: Deploy additional MANPADS-equipped mobile fire groups to the Balakliia-Barvinkove corridor immediately to prevent RF mapping of the "logistical spine."
- Counter-PsyOps: Command 5th OSHBr and Kraken to release additional "success" media to counter the current RF "moral decomposition" campaign.
- Energy Defense: Increase fire suppression and repair readiness at all oil/fuel hubs in the South, as RF will likely attempt a retaliatory strike for the Krasnodar pipeline hit within the next 12 hours.
