Situation Update (212035Z DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- (20:07, TASS, HIGH): US Envoy Witkoff formally characterized the Florida negotiations with the Ukrainian delegation as "constructive," signaling a potential alignment on the proposed peace framework.
- (20:09–20:11, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multi-vector UAV threats developing in the North; one wave tracking toward Krasnopillia (Sumy) and a new entry from Bryansk (RF) targeting Northern Chernihiv.
- (20:15–20:31, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Significant UAV penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; assets tracking from Donetsk toward Petropavlivka and Pavlohrad, likely targeting railway logistics hubs.
- (20:25, Mash on Donbas, LOW): UNCONFIRMED reports of mass power outages (10,000+ civilians) in Kamianka-Dniprovska and surrounding villages; RF sources attribute this to UAF shelling.
- (20:28, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): GUR "Kraken" unit (3rd AC) confirmed active in Kharkiv region, engaging in high-intensity defensive operations against RF mechanized assaults.
- (20:30, Sternenko, MEDIUM): Widespread "drone danger" reported across 11+ Russian regions and occupied territories (including Rostov, Lipetsk, and Crimea), suggesting a large-scale UAF reciprocal drone campaign.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
The border remains highly volatile. The entry of UAVs from Bryansk toward Chernihiv (20:11) suggests a widening of the RF aerial pressure campaign beyond the Sumy corridor. In the Kharkiv sector, the deployment of high-readiness units like "Kraken" (20:28) indicates that the situation remains critical as UAF attempts to blunt RF advances documented in the previous daily report (Sotnytskyi Kozachok).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Velyka Novosilka):
UAF is facing sustained pressure. DeepState (20:22) provided satellite-confirmed evidence of catastrophic destruction in Velyka Novosilka, indicating the settlement is effectively a contested ruin under heavy RF fire. Simultaneously, RF loitering munitions are transitioning from the Donetsk front into the Dnipropetrovsk rear, specifically targeting Pavlohrad (20:31), a critical node for UAF logistics and reinforcement flow to the Donbas.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa/Kherson):
RF sources report a significant infrastructure failure in the occupied Kamianka-Dniprovska area (20:25), claiming UAF artillery strikes de-energized the region. This area is proximal to the Zaporizhzhia NPP and represents a sensitive sector for energy stability. Odesa remains on high alert following earlier reservoir strikes, though no new impacts were reported in the last 30 minutes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Rear Area Targeting: The movement of drones toward Pavlohrad (20:31) confirms the RF strategy of interdicting UAF logistics hubs 50–80km behind the active FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops).
- Tactical Propaganda: RF sources (Colonelcassad, 20:31) are actively disseminating FPV footage of UAF casualties to demoralize defenders, highlighting the continued lethality of the "drone blockade" mentioned in previous reports.
- Deep Defense Posture: The "aerial danger" alerts across 11+ RF regions (20:30) indicate the Russian MoD is struggling to provide a comprehensive AD umbrella against UAF long-range strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Active Defense (Kharkiv): UAF 3rd Assault Corps/Kraken is conducting successful counter-attacks or high-intensity delay operations in the Kharkiv axis (20:28).
- Deep Strike Operations: Coordinated UAV activity is likely being conducted against RF rear logistics, as evidenced by widespread alerts in the RF border and interior regions (20:30).
- Diplomatic Engagement: Foreign Minister Sybiha is addressing secondary diplomatic friction with Poland (xenophobia incidents) to prevent any degradation of the western logistics corridor (20:31).
Information environment / disinformation
- US Aid Narrative: Dissemination of negative rhetoric from US political figures (JD Vance, 20:14) by Ukrainian media suggests internal anxiety regarding the sustainability of US security assistance.
- Blame Shifting: RF claims of UAF shelling causing civilian power outages in Zaporizhzhia (20:25) are likely intended to distract from the confirmed RF strikes on the Odesa oil reservoir.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation of Dnipropetrovsk (Pavlohrad/Petropavlivka) to disrupt rail-bound ammunition flows. Expect kinetic impact reports from Pavlohrad by 2100Z.
- MDCOA: RF "Zapad" group uses the UAV cover in Chernihiv/Sumy to launch a localized ground incursion near Krasnopillia to further stretch UAF border guards.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Pavlohrad Status: Immediate verification of AD success or impact in Pavlohrad. Is the central railway junction operational?
- Kamianka-Dniprovska Outage: Determine if the power outage in the occupied south is due to UAF fire or RF internal grid failure/sabotage.
- Velyka Novosilka Control: Clarify the current FLOT in Velyka Novosilka. Does UAF still hold the northern heights, or has the destruction forced a total withdrawal?
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
- Logistics Rerouting: Immediately suspend non-essential military rail movements through Pavlohrad for the next 4 hours due to high UAV loitering density.
- Border Strengthening: Shift mobile fire groups from Central Sumy toward Krasnopillia and Northern Chernihiv to intercept the new Bryansk-based UAV vector.
- Counter-Narrative: Release BDA or footage from the Kharkiv/Kraken operations to counter the RF-distributed "failed soldier" FPV footage and maintain domestic morale.
