Situation Update (211935Z DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- (19:17, STERNENKO, HIGH): UAF 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (Unit "Perun") destroyed a Russian convoy, including 3 artillery pieces, multiple transport vehicles, and 7 personnel via FPV drones.
- (19:24, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Reports of a successful UAF counter-offensive operation in the Kupyansk sector involving the 475th Regiment ("CODE 9.2"); characterized as a significant tactical victory.
- (19:18–19:27, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Multiple Shahed/UAV incursions detected: Northern Chernihiv (heading SE), Eastern Dnipropetrovsk (heading toward Chaplyne), and Southern Sumy (entering from Belgorod, RF).
- (19:08, Financial Times/ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Major diplomatic rift reported between France (Macron) and Germany (Merz) regarding the use of frozen Russian assets for a reparations loan to Ukraine.
- (19:20, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian delegates have concluded talks with US counterparts regarding the "Ukraine situation"; outcomes currently opaque.
- (19:23, NATO/РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a strategic warning regarding synchronized aggression from Russia and China targeting Europe and Taiwan.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Kupyansk/Sumy):
The operational tempo in Kupyansk has shifted following a reported counter-offensive by the 475th Regiment (19:24). This indicates UAF is not merely holding a defensive posture but is actively contesting RF gains in this axis. In the Sumy/Chernihiv border regions, RF is utilizing UAVs (19:18, 19:27) for both ISR and likely strike roles, following the earlier reported capture of Hrabovske.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
High-intensity attrition of RF assets continues. The destruction of a convoy (3 guns) by the 42nd OMBr (19:17) suggests UAF is successfully targeting RF reinforcements moving toward the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad line. However, RF drone operators (Colonelcassad, 19:34) remain active, targeting UAF personnel shelters to degrade defensive sustainability. The "Dobropillya Cauldron" narrative (previous report) remains UNCONFIRMED and is likely a psychological operation.
Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia):
Pro-Russian sources have released aerial footage of settlements on the southern front (19:05), confirming high-altitude ISR activity. No significant change in territorial control has been verified since the successful UAF defense of the Kherson islands (18:36).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Air Threat: The detection of UAVs across three distinct oblasts (Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy) within a 10-minute window indicates the beginning of a coordinated loitering munition wave. This aligns with the earlier assessment (18:45) of a 2,000-unit Shahed stockpile.
- Tactical Course of Action: RF is prioritizing the destruction of UAF personnel in shelters (19:34) using FPV drones, likely to compensate for the equipment shortages (civilian car assaults) noted in the previous daily report.
- Strategic Course of Action: RF is maintaining diplomatic channels with the US (19:20) while simultaneously preparing for long-term hybrid escalation in the Baltics (ECFR report, 19:06) to stretch NATO's attention.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Force Posture: UAF is demonstrating high mobility and technical proficiency with FPV units (42nd OMBr and CODE 9.2). The mention of a "Kupyansk counter-offensive" suggests a transition to active defense-in-depth.
- Tactical Success: Successful interdiction of an RF artillery convoy (19:17) significantly degrades the "Zapad" group's fire support capabilities in the immediate 24-hour window.
- Logistics: Pressure remains on the M-15 corridor (Odesa), although no new kinetic strikes on the bridge have been reported in this 30-minute window.
Information environment / disinformation
- European Fragmentation: RF state media and aligned Ukrainian channels are amplifying the Macron-Merz "betrayal" narrative (19:08, 19:33). The intent is to erode Ukrainian confidence in sustained EU financial support and highlight fractures in the Western alliance.
- Baltic Anxiety: Distribution of scenarios regarding a Russian invasion of Estonia (19:06) serves to increase domestic pressure within NATO member states to prioritize internal defense over Ukrainian aid.
- Propaganda Synchronization: The Russian MoD continues to release highly synchronized daily "Top News" packages (19:34) designed to project an image of steady operational progress and professional command.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued Shahed/UAV saturation strikes across Northern and Eastern Ukraine to fix Air Defense assets and strike logistics hubs like Chaplyne (19:23).
- MDCOA: RF utilizes the distraction of the UAV wave and the diplomatic friction in the EU to launch a concentrated ballistic strike on the Kupyansk sector to reverse the reported UAF counter-offensive gains.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Kupyansk BDA: Immediate confirmation of the 475th Regiment’s counter-offensive limits. Has key terrain been reclaimed, or was this a localized spoil attack?
- Chaplyne Threat: Identify the specific target of the UAVs heading toward Chaplyne (Dnipropetrovsk). Is this targeting rail logistics or troop concentrations?
- RU-US Talk Outcomes: HUMINT/SIGINT required to determine if the "talks" (19:20) involve ceasefire proposals or are merely a deconfliction exercise.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATION:
Air Defense: Reallocate mobile fire groups to the Chaplyne (Dnipropetrovsk) and Southern Sumy corridors immediately to intercept the confirmed UAV waves.
Strategic Signaling: Ukrainian MFA should prioritize a joint statement or clarification with French/German counterparts to neutralize the "Macron betrayal" narrative before it impacts frontline morale.
Tactical: Units in the Kupyansk sector should prepare for heavy RF artillery retaliation following the "CODE 9.2" counter-offensive.
