Situation Update (211905Z DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- (18:55, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): UAF 47th and 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigades successfully repelled a Russian ground assault on Sotnytskyi Kozachok (Northern Kharkiv).
- (18:36, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): UAF 34th Separate Marine Brigade eliminated 24 Russian marines on the Kherson islands using a combination of artillery and FPV drones.
- (18:45, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): Intelligence monitoring suggests RF has stockpiled approximately 2,000 Shahed-type UAVs, awaiting a period of sustained freezing temperatures to launch a massed energy-grid offensive.
- (18:56, Операция Z, LOW): Russian sources claim a "Dobropillya Cauldron" is forming following an RF advance near Shakhove. UNCONFIRMED; likely psychological operation to induce panic in the Pokrovsk sector.
- (18:44, РБК-Україна, HIGH): China reportedly purchased nearly $1 billion in Russian gold in November, highlighting continued economic lifelines for RF state sustainment.
- (19:00, Fighterbomber, MEDIUM): Cryptic "300!" message from high-profile RF aviation channel; potentially indicates a tactical aviation milestone or loss. UNCONFIRMED.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
The defense of Sotnytskyi Kozachok (18:55) indicates the RF "Zapad" grouping is actively attempting to establish a second bridgehead alongside their presence in Hrabovske. The involvement of the elite 47th OMBr suggests UAF is prioritizing this sector to prevent a wider border breach, though it risks pinning high-readiness reserves.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Vostok Grouping):
RF forces are attempting to build a narrative of encirclement ("Dobropillya Cauldron") near Shakhove (18:56). While the claimed penetration is unconfirmed, the focus on Shakhove indicates an intent to sever the northern supply routes to the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad hub.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Kherson):
In Kherson, UAF continues to successfully contest the Dnipro islands (18:36), preventing RF from establishing observation posts or launch sites for riverine raids. In Odesa, the situation regarding the M-15 Mayaki Bridge remains fluid; the earlier reported shift to pontoon ferries (18:20 previous report) increases the urgency for mobile air defense as RF loitering munitions remain active in the region.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Course of Action: RF is utilizing "fixing" attacks in Northern Kharkiv to prevent UAF from reinforcing the Pokrovsk axis. In the East, they have shifted from "civilian car" assaults (reported 14:04Z) back toward attempting larger-scale maneuvers near Shakhove.
- Strategic Course of Action: Winter Attrition. The accumulation of 2,000 Shaheds (18:45) confirms the RF strategy of waiting for weather-induced vulnerability in the Ukrainian energy sector. This suggests a shift from tactical frontline support to strategic infrastructure targeting in the 24-72h window.
- Sustainment: Sino-Russian gold trade (18:44) provides the RF with hard currency to bypass sanctions for dual-use technology, specifically for drone components.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Force Posture: Successful multi-brigade coordination (47th and 22nd OMBr) in the North demonstrates effective C2 (Command and Control) despite RF electronic warfare efforts.
- Tactical Success: High-efficiency attrition of RF naval infantry in Kherson (18:36) maintains the integrity of the Southern maritime flank.
- Logistics: Current priorities remain the protection of the M-15 corridor and the pre-positioning of winter-ready AD assets to counter the identified Shahed stockpile.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Cauldron" Rhetoric: RF channels (RusVesna) are aggressively pushing the term "Dobropillya Cauldron." This is a classic Soviet-era psychological tactic designed to trigger hasty UAF withdrawals.
- Derogatory Diplomacy: RF state-aligned channels are amplifying derogatory presidential rhetoric ("European piglets") (18:50) to foster domestic Russian nationalism and signal contempt for EU financial aid packages (€90B).
- Belarussian Alignment: Lukashenko’s gift-giving to Putin (19:00) serves as visual confirmation of the "Union State" military-political integration, likely to maintain the perceived threat of a Northern opening from Belarus.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: RF will maintain high-intensity probing attacks in Sotnytskyi Kozachok to confirm if UAF 47th OMBr is fully committed or just a detachment.
- MDCOA: RF initiates a saturation strike on Odesa logistics (M-15 pontoons) using a mix of the 2,000-unit Shahed stockpile and maritime-launched missiles to coincide with a ground push toward Shakhove.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Dobropillya/Shakhove Verification: Immediate drone/satellite BDA required to confirm the extent of RF advances toward Shakhove.
- Fighterbomber "300" Cryptography: SIGINT/ELINT focus required to determine if "300" refers to an RF Su-34 loss, a specific milestone, or a coordinated strike code.
- Shahed Stockpile Location: Intelligence priority to identify the storage sites of the reported 2,000 UAVs (likely in Crimea or Krasnodar Krai) for preemptive long-range strikes.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATION:
Pokrovsk Axis: Units in the Shakhove-Dobropillya corridor should increase reconnaissance depth to counter "cauldron" narratives with factual reporting. Strategic AD: Accelerate the deployment of passive sensor networks (acoustic detectors) to counter the 2,000-unit Shahed threat before the first major frost.
