(13:28, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM): UAF forces have reportedly withdrawn from several positions near Hrabovske (Sumy Region) following a rapid RF ground advance; localized engagements continue.
(13:06, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF "Tsentr" Group of Forces claims the capture of Svetloye in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. (UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources).
(13:23, RBK-UA, HIGH): A US reconnaissance aircraft (detected via "Crimean Wind") is currently operating over the Black Sea, likely conducting ISR on RF naval movements and the previously reported "Shahed" holding patterns.
(13:14, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): "Fire Point" industrial output confirmed at 200 FP1/FP2 drones per day, providing a critical sustainment metric for UAF FPV operations.
(13:08, RBK-UA, LOW): Reports indicate French diplomatic maneuvering for potential high-level talks between Macron and Putin.
(13:14, TASS, MEDIUM): Kremlin indicates intent to send holiday greetings to the Trump transition team, signaling continued diplomatic shaping of the upcoming US administration.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Hrabovske):
The situation has escalated from aerial bombardment (Shostka) to ground maneuvers. The reported UAF withdrawal from positions in Hrabovske indicates that RF is successfully transitioning its "Zapad" and associated groups from probing actions to tactical breakthroughs. This creates a risk of a localized salient that could threaten regional logistics.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): The claimed capture of Svetloye by RF "Tsentr" forces suggests a tightening of the operational vice around Pokrovsk. If confirmed, this indicates a failure to hold the immediate approaches to the city's outer defense ring.
Donetsk/C3: Following the destruction of the repeater in Konstantinovka (previous sitrep), RF drone operations (Colonelcassad, 13:05) appear to be capitalizing on the degraded UAF signal environment.
Southern/Maritime Sector:
The introduction of high-level US ISR (RBK-UA, 13:23) over the Black Sea suggests a heightened threat environment. This likely correlates with the 3 Shahed UAVs detected in the 13:35 report, possibly monitoring for RF Black Sea Fleet sorties or long-range missile launches.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ground Mobility: RF is exploiting tactical gaps in Sumy. The shift from UAV-only threat to ground-assault-driven withdrawal suggests RF has found a "soft point" in the border defense.
Psychological Operations: RF channels (Starshe Eddi, 13:23) are increasingly utilizing footage of captured UAF personnel to undermine domestic morale.
Force Degradation (Internal): Reports of a violent homicide in Chelyabinsk by a returning "SMO" veteran (Butusov Plus, 13:19) highlight ongoing internal RF stability issues regarding veteran reintegration, though this has no immediate tactical impact on the frontline.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defense Industrial Base: The confirmed production of 200 drones/day (FP1/FP2) is vital. This volume is necessary to offset the loss of technical infrastructure (repeaters) by saturating the air with short-range loitering munitions.
Tactical Retrograde: In Sumy, UAF appears to be conducting a fighting withdrawal to more defensible terrain to avoid encirclement near Hrabovske.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic "Thaw" Narrative: RF media (TASS) and some Ukrainian channels (RBK-UA) are highlighting potential negotiations (Macron/Trump). Goal: To foster a sense of "inevitability" regarding a negotiated settlement on RF terms, potentially weakening the resolve for continued high-intensity defense.
Internal RF Instability: UAF-aligned channels (Butusov) are amplifying RF domestic crimes to counter the "heroic veteran" narrative promoted by the Kremlin.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Svetloye and push further toward the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis. In Sumy, expect RF to expand the Hrabovske breach to cut local road networks.
MDCOA: RF "Shaheds" over the Black Sea coordinate with a sudden naval missile strike on Odesa, timed to coincide with US ISR withdrawal or fuel cycles.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Hrabovske Verification: Urgent need for satellite imagery or drone feed confirmation of the extent of the RF advance in Sumy.
Svetloye Status: Confirm if UAF forces have established a new blocking position west of Svetloye or if the withdrawal is ongoing.
Drone Production Vulnerability: Assess if the "Fire Point" production facilities are within range of RF tactical ballistic missiles or the UAVs recently spotted over Sumy.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has increased in the Sumy and Pokrovsk sectors. RF is transitioning from attrition-based probing to localized maneuver warfare. The ground in the north remains a primary concern as UAF tactical depth is being tested.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is utilizing a "Tsentr" group push in Pokrovsk and a "Zapad" group push in Sumy/Kupyansk to force UAF to commit reserves across a wide, fragmented front.
Adaptation: RF is effectively using "Information-Strike Complexes," combining drone strikes with rapid propaganda dissemination to capitalize on tactical gains.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF is currently in a "defensive-maneuver" phase in the north. The high rate of drone production is the primary equalizer against RF armor/infantry mass, but physical terrain loss in Sumy indicates a need for additional kinetic barriers (mines/ATGM teams).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The cognitive domain is saturated with "negotiation" talk. UAF units must be briefed that these diplomatic signals do not reflect a change in enemy tactical aggression on the ground.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Pokrovsk Axis: The fall of Svetloye (if verified) moves the frontline dangerously close to the main logistics hubs of Krasnoarmeysk.
Sumy Axis: If Hrabovske is not contained within 12 hours, RF may attempt to establish a permanent "buffer zone" inside Ukrainian territory to disrupt the Shostka logistics node.
