(12:40, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF "Zapad" Group of Forces launched offensive operations in the Borovskoye direction (South of Kupyansk), reportedly attempting to clear a "pocket" of UAF resistance.
(12:54, PS ZSU, HIGH): RF UAVs detected in Northern Sumy region moving toward Shostka from the east, expanding the threat radius in the northern sector.
(13:03, NM DNR, MEDIUM): RF Spetsnaz ("Okhotnik") claims destruction of a UAF signal repeater and UAV control post in the Konstantinovka direction, targeting tactical C3 infrastructure.
(13:02, STERNENKO, HIGH): UAF "Signum" unit confirmed the downing of twelve (12) RF UAVs, maintaining a high interception rate despite increased RF loitering munition activity.
(12:38, Nikolaevsky Vanyok, MEDIUM): Three (3) RF "Shahed" UAVs reported circling over the Black Sea, likely conducting reconnaissance or awaiting timing synchronization for a coastal strike.
(12:57, RBK-UA, HIGH): Sweden has detained a sanctioned Russian vessel, indicating intensified maritime enforcement in the Baltic/North Sea regions.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Shostka):
The threat to the Sumy region is shifting from ground penetration (Hrabovske) to aerial bombardment of rear-area logistics hubs like Shostka. RF is likely attempting to disrupt the transit of reinforcements toward the frontline.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Konstantinovka/Donetsk):
Kupyansk/Borovskoye: RF "Zapad" group has transitioned to active offensive maneuvers south of Kupyansk. This indicates a secondary effort to collapse the Oskil River defense line.
Konstantinovka: Specialized RF units are prioritizing the degradation of UAF drone-link infrastructure (repeaters), suggesting preparation for local tactical advances.
Donetsk (Terrikons): RF attacks are focusing on elevated terrain (slag heaps/terrikons). Control of these points provides superior ISR and fire control over surrounding lowlands.
Southern/Maritime Sector:
RF UAVs are utilizing "holding patterns" over the sea. This tactic is likely intended to drain AD readiness or wait for the conclusion of EW mapping before striking Odesa or surrounding ports.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Offensive Focus: The RF "Zapad" group's movement in Borovskoye suggests a push to consolidate the Kupyansk salient before soil conditions change.
C3 Degradation: The targeted strike on repeaters in Konstantinovka marks a tactical shift toward "blinding" UAF drone operators before ground assaults.
Naval Posture: The detention of a Russian vessel in Sweden may trigger RF retaliatory hybrid actions in the maritime domain or increased "shadow fleet" activity.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successful interception of 12 UAVs by the "Signum" unit demonstrates effective localized drone-defense bubbles.
Information Defense: UAF channels are actively countering RF narratives by highlighting the failures of Russian equipment in winter conditions (e.g., the "Katsapavtoprom" mockery).
Information environment / disinformation
High-Level Corruption Narrative (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): TASS/Zerkalo Nedeli reports regarding Umerov and the FBI (12:36) are assessed as a continuation of the "Internal Discord" campaign identified in the 12:35Z report. Goal: Destabilize the Ministry of Defense's relationship with Western investigative bodies.
Diplomatic Friction: Amplification of Viktor Orbán's "weakening Ukraine" comments and Macron's "dialogue" rumors (12:40, 12:46) are being used to project a sense of eroding Western unity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will escalate pressure on the Borovskoye-Kupyansk axis while using the "Shaheds" currently over the Black Sea to strike Odesa/Pivdenne NLT 212200Z.
Environmental Factor: Frost forecast for next week (12:42) will begin to harden the ground, potentially ending the "Rasputitsa" mobility restrictions and allowing for heavier armored maneuvers by early January.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Borovskoye Pocket: Need immediate BDA and frontline verification of the reported RF advance south of Kupyansk.
Shostka Target Set: Determine if the UAVs heading toward Shostka are targeting energy infrastructure or the local defense-industrial base.
C3 Integrity: Assess the impact of the lost repeater in the Konstantinovka sector on local FPV operations.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is crystallizing into a high-intensity infantry and drone struggle for tactical heights (terrikons) and key logistics nodes (Shostka/Borovskoye). The transition toward frost will likely favor the side that has maintained its armored fleet during the mud season.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is attempting to exploit the "seam" south of Kupyansk (Borovskoye) to force a UAF withdrawal from the Oskil river's eastern bank.
Capabilities: The use of specialized Spetsnaz units for C3 disruption (repeaters) indicates high-quality tactical intelligence on UAF drone networks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Readiness: UAF drone units (Signum) remain highly lethal, but the loss of repeaters in the East suggests a need for more redundant/mobile signal relay systems.
Logistics: Shostka is now a high-priority defensive node; AD assets may need to be repositioned to cover its eastern approach.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF is aggressively utilizing the "Orbán-Macron" narrative to suggest that Ukraine's diplomatic flank is collapsing alongside its tactical positions. This is a coordinated PSYOP to coincide with the Borovskoye offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Kupyansk Axis: Expect the RF "Zapad" group to increase the tempo of their "pocket clearing" operations before the 211800Z window.
Maritime Threat: The 3 UAVs in the Black Sea are likely decoys or scouts for a larger maritime strike package.
