(12:02, RBC-UA/Joint Forces Group, HIGH): UAF official confirmation of withdrawal from several positions in the Hrabovske area (Sumy region) due to a rapid Russian advance; heavy fighting continues.
(11:45, Два майора/UA МВД, HIGH): The M-15 Odesa–Reni highway at Mayaki is officially reopened in both directions following repairs to damage from the Dec 19 strike.
(11:37, Операция Z, MEDIUM): RF forces ("Otvažnyye" unit) claim to have captured Svetloe, allegedly tightening an encirclement around the Myrnohrad grouping.
(11:57, PS ZSU/Vanyek, HIGH): Two Russian UAVs (Geran-type) detected transitioning from the Black Sea toward Mykolaiv/Koblevo.
(11:41, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF aviation conducted a targeted strike on UAF positions within Huliaipole.
(12:03, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM): Urgent volunteer crowdfund initiated for a heavy recovery vehicle (evacuator) for UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO), indicating local equipment losses or maintenance deficits.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy):
The situation in Hrabovske has transitioned from a border breach to a tactical penetration. UAF Communications Chief Viktor Tregubov confirmed a measured withdrawal to secondary lines to avoid being overrun by the "rapid" RF tempo. Fighting remains fluid and high-intensity.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad):
Myrnohrad Flank: RF claims of seizing Svetloe (if confirmed) indicate an attempt to sever the southern GLOCs into Myrnohrad. This suggests RF is prioritizing the "pincer" maneuver over direct frontal urban assaults in this sub-sector.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Huliaipole: Follow-up to previous reports of urban penetration; RF is now utilizing tactical aviation to suppress UAF strongpoints within the town.
Southwestern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv):
Logistics: The full restoration of the M-15 (Mayaki) is a critical success for UAF J4, ensuring the flow of supplies from Romania remains unhindered.
Air Defense: New inbound UAV threat from the Black Sea suggests a "probing" attack on Mykolaiv’s coastal defenses.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation (Thermal Stealth): RF Spetsnaz units are increasingly promoting/deploying the KMTO 4.0 camouflage system (12:01). This multi-spectral gear is designed to reduce thermal signatures, specifically targeting UAF’s reliance on thermal-equipped ISR drones.
Aviation Tempo: RF continues to use KABs and tactical airstrikes (Huliaipole) as "flying artillery" to compensate for the difficulty of moving traditional tube artillery through the Rasputitsa (mud).
Sumy Objectives: The speed of the RF advance in Hrabovske suggests a well-resourced tactical group rather than a diversionary raid. Intent likely involves establishing a fire-control "balcony" over regional rail links.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Retrograde: UAF is executing a disciplined withdrawal in the Sumy sector to preserve manpower while engaging in delay actions.
Logistical Resilience: Engineering units have demonstrated high proficiency in restoring the Mayaki bridge within 72 hours of a major strike.
Special Operations: UAF SSO continues to operate at high tempo, though the request for recovery vehicles suggests an attrition of specialized logistical support assets.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative Reinforcement: RF state media (TASS) is pivoting toward "Western warmongering" rhetoric to frame their winter offensive as a "preventative" measure.
Memorialization: The naming of a Novosibirsk school after Maj. Gen. Mikhail Gudkov (11:39) indicates the RF is institutionalizing the "Special Military Operation" into the domestic education system to bolster long-term mobilization support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Svetloe and push toward the outskirts of Myrnohrad. In Sumy, expect RF to deploy electronic warfare (EW) assets to the Hrabovske salient to mask further troop movements.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the newly captured positions in Sumy to launch a night-time infiltration toward the local H-07 highway, attempting to isolate Sumy city from the south.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Svetloe Status: UNCONFIRMED. Need satellite imagery or ground-truth confirmation of RF presence in Svetloe.
KMTO 4.0 Efficacy: Capture of KMTO 4.0 samples is a priority for G2 to assess the degree of thermal masking against current UAF drone sensors.
SSO Attrition: Identify if the request for recovery vehicles is localized to one unit or indicates a wider shortage of heavy recovery assets across the Southern Command.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The theater is bifurcated: significant UAF logistical success in the South (M-15 restoration) is being offset by a deteriorating tactical situation in the North (Sumy) and East (Myrnohrad). The "Rasputitsa" remains a factor, but RF is successfully using aviation and specialized infantry gear to maintain offensive pressure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF is demonstrating "rapid" movement in the Sumy sector, suggesting the use of high-mobility groups (likely VDV or Spetsnaz) rather than standard motorized rifle units.
C2: Coordinated use of Black Sea UAVs and tactical aviation indicates a synchronized multi-axis pressure point strategy.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Readiness: UAF maintains the ability to restore critical infrastructure quickly but is being forced into tactical withdrawals in Sumy.
Resources: Critical need for heavy recovery vehicles and thermal-detection sensors capable of defeating multi-spectral camouflage.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF is focusing on domestic legacy-building (school naming) while escalating external "warmongering" accusations against the West to justify the current offensive tempo.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Sumy: Within 12 hours, RF will likely attempt to dig in at Hrabovske to create a permanent bridgehead.
Odesa/Mykolaiv: Expect the 2 inbound UAVs to be followed by a larger missile salvo once AD positions are revealed.
